Democratic WV primary + NE fake contest results thread (1st polls close @7:30ET)

[The Other Castro]

Predictions of the major forecasters:

[The Other Castro]

Coal workers: The state's depressed coal industry is a key reason for its economic woes. Three in 10 West Virginia Democratic primary voters in preliminary exit poll results say they live in a household with a coal worker. Clinton’s gaffe about creating jobs “because we’re going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business” makes this a group worth watching as vote results become available.

Race: Whites account for more than nine in 10 West Virginia Democratic primary voters in preliminary exit poll results, far above the 61 percent they’ve averaged across the 2016 Democratic primaries. In previous contests, whites have voted 50-48 percent, Sanders-Clinton, vs. 71-28 percent Clinton-Sanders among nonwhites.

Gender: Sanders has done much better with men than women in previous primaries and it’s helped Clinton tremendously that women have outnumbered men by 58-42 percent overall. Not so in preliminary exit poll results in West Virginia, in which men and women are essentially evenly divided.

Party: Political independents, another group that’s been much better for Sanders in previous races, account for a third of voters in preliminary exit poll results, well above the average to date, 22 percent.

Obama: Only a quarter of Democratic primary voters in West Virginia want the next president to continue Obama’s policies, a strong group for Clinton to date; that’s down from 54 percent on average in previous contests this year. An additional quarter wants more liberal policies, a group that’s voted just as strongly for Sanders, and more than four in 10 want less liberal policies, more than three times more than the average this year, and a group that’s narrowly favored Sanders in past contests.

Qualities: Roughly six in 10 voters in preliminary exit poll results say honesty or empathy are most important to their vote; they’ve been more likely to support Sanders (especially honesty voters) to date. Fewer than four in 10 instead call electability or experience most important, voters among whom Clinton’s dominated. Honesty/empathy voters are outnumbering those focused on experience/electability by a bigger margin than usual in West Virginia.

Vote in November: In one last notable result, about a third of Democratic voters in preliminary exit poll results say that, given a Clinton-Donald Trump or a Sanders-Trump race, they’d vote for Trump. That’s a high level of support for Trump among Democratic primary voters; one reason is that West Virginia Democratic voters are among least liberal so far this year. Fewer than half say they’re liberals, vs. an average of 62 percent in previous Democratic contests.

[The Other Castro]

Yeah Clinton's probably not breaking 40% with these numbers.

[The Other Castro]

Ummm....

9% of Clinton voters would back Trump over Clinton
39% of Sanders voters would back Trump over Sanders

Looks like we may have some Trump supporters causing shenanigans in WV.

[The Other Castro]

1/2 of Sanders voters would back Trump over Clinton.

[The Other Castro]

I'd say there's a decent chance Clinton comes in third.

[The Other Castro]

What's more likely?

TRUMP above 75% In NE or Sanders winning every county in WV?

Sanders sweep, though both could happen.

[The Other Castro]

[The Other Castro]

The Democratic primary is going to have a lot more votes than the Republican one.

Not surprising whatsoever, of course.

When are you going to give up the "WV residents are Democrats at heart!" meme? Will it be when Trump carries the state 2:1? Or when the governor, Senators, and House delegation is 100% Republican after 2018?

Calm down, dude, your party elitism will be alive and well come November.  I'm just saying that anyone with an inkling of knowledge about WV politics knew that more folks were going to vote in the Democratic primary...

And there's a competitive Democratic primary for Governor.

[The Other Castro]

Hillary in third place in exit polls according to a tweet.

Source?

[The Other Castro]

Sanders with 57.41 in the exit poll.

[The Other Castro]

Sanders with 57.41 in the exit poll.

If thats right Benchmark nailed it.

Yeah I think they are now the most accurate on average.

[The Other Castro]

Any idea when we should start getting hard results?

According to Wolf Blitzer, "soon". He did say the same about the missing plane though, so who knows.

[The Other Castro]

Anyone else shocked of how close it is? I expected Bernie to demolish Hillary at the start. I bet the delegate spread will be tied.

Early vote.

[The Other Castro]

Sanders takes the lead.

[The Other Castro]

So CNN says 10% reporting but NYT says 1%. Weird.

[The Other Castro]

Clinton now back down to a 0.1% lead.

[The Other Castro]

How the F were exit polls off by like 20 points??

Maybe chill for like an hour and you'll see.

[The Other Castro]

I would be very hesitant to call it, with so much of Charleston out.

FOX calls it for Sanders

That certainly is premature, not that Sanders wouldn't win... but... still.

It's pretty unlikely that the Kanawha margin will hold.

[The Other Castro]

Sanders lead now over 7%.

[The Other Castro]

Kanawha margin tightening, now 51-42.

[The Other Castro]

Clinton is in 3rd in Lincoln County.

[The Other Castro]

Clinton is in 3rd in Lincoln County.

Where do you get that? Both CNN and NYTimes show her leading there.

Sorry, I meant 3rd as in behind Other, not a specific other candidate.

[The Other Castro]

Clinton is in 3rd in Lincoln County.

Where do you get that? Both CNN and NYTimes show her leading there.

Sorry, I meant 3rd as in behind Other, not a specific other candidate.

What does that mean?

Non-Clinton or Sanders candidates combined, and it shows up as Other. As in the county goes Sanders>The protest vote>Clinton.

[The Other Castro]

Clinton lead in Kanawha County now just 48-45. Look like the primary map is even more ruined now.