Democratic WV primary + NE fake contest results thread (1st polls close @7:30ET) (user search)
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  Democratic WV primary + NE fake contest results thread (1st polls close @7:30ET) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democratic WV primary + NE fake contest results thread (1st polls close @7:30ET)  (Read 16991 times)
RI
realisticidealist
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Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« on: May 10, 2016, 04:25:44 PM »
Quote from: Castro on May 10, 2016, 04:25:16 PM
Ummm....

9% of Clinton voters would back Trump over Clinton
39% of Sanders voters would back Trump over Sanders

Looks like we may have some Trump supporters causing shenanigans in WV.

More like a closed primary with lots of conservadems
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2016, 04:31:07 PM »
Quote from: xingkerui on May 10, 2016, 04:29:16 PM
Quote from: Castro on May 10, 2016, 04:25:16 PM
Ummm....

9% of Clinton voters would back Trump over Clinton
39% of Sanders voters would back Trump over Sanders

Looks like we may have some Trump supporters causing shenanigans in WV.

Huh? Are you sure that's not a typo, and that it shouldn't be 9% of Clinton voters backing Trump over Sanders and 39% of Sanders voters backing Trump over Clinton?

Not a typo
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2016, 04:35:00 PM »

That doesn't make much difference in this case.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2016, 04:36:03 PM »
40% want more conservative policies
27% more liberal
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2016, 04:41:31 PM »

They border the part of Kentucky Sanders might actually win.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2016, 04:47:51 PM »
Quote from: Fusionmunster on May 10, 2016, 04:45:43 PM
I know I mentioned this but the early exits in Indiana did not take into account early voters, is it the same here? That could boost Hillary somewhat.

The first exit polls in Indiana had Sanders up 53-47 IIRC and the final was Sanders 52.5-47.5.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2016, 04:53:08 PM »
Quote from: Fusionmunster on May 10, 2016, 04:49:16 PM
Quote from: realisticidealist on May 10, 2016, 04:47:51 PM
Quote from: Fusionmunster on May 10, 2016, 04:45:43 PM
I know I mentioned this but the early exits in Indiana did not take into account early voters, is it the same here? That could boost Hillary somewhat.

The first exit polls in Indiana had Sanders up 53-47 IIRC and the final was Sanders 52.5-47.5.

Are you sure? I could have sworn the first exits were showing a Sanders +10 win.

Looking back, it was 55-45 on CNN, but I'm pretty sure they always take the early vote into consideration. There's selection bias problems, though.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2016, 06:20:06 PM »
« Edited: May 10, 2016, 06:21:58 PM by realisticidealist »
Quote from: LLR on May 10, 2016, 06:17:01 PM
Who's listed first on the ballot?

It varies by county.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2016, 06:30:20 PM »
Hoping for a ROQUEslide
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2016, 07:22:12 PM »
Quote from: Spooky Mike on May 10, 2016, 07:21:07 PM
Anyone else shocked of how close it is? I expected Bernie to demolish Hillary at the start. I bet the delegate spread will be tied.

Way too early to conclude that.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2016, 07:28:08 PM »
Quote from: ag on May 10, 2016, 07:27:43 PM

where are you watching? It is not, yet, on NYT.

NYT's usually behind. CNN's faster.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #11 on: May 10, 2016, 07:29:45 PM »
Sanders at 53% in Randolph County
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #12 on: May 10, 2016, 07:30:53 PM »
Clinton up big in Kanawha early.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #13 on: May 10, 2016, 07:38:28 PM »
Quote from: Castro on May 10, 2016, 07:37:58 PM
Clinton now back down to a 0.1% lead.

More of Monongalia came in, which is where WVU is.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #14 on: May 10, 2016, 07:43:01 PM »
Sanders up by 19 points in Wheeling area
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #15 on: May 10, 2016, 07:47:11 PM »
Sanders cleaning up in the non-panhandle portions of the north
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #16 on: May 10, 2016, 07:53:46 PM »
Sanders has over 2.5x as many votes as Hillary in Logan County, which lies in the heart of coal country.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #17 on: May 10, 2016, 07:56:12 PM »
Clinton lead in Kanawha shrinks from 15% to 9%
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #18 on: May 10, 2016, 08:04:45 PM »
Clinton over 60% in Nebraska early.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #19 on: May 10, 2016, 08:08:12 PM »
Nebraska:

Clinton 10835 (61.26%)
Sanders 6851 (38.74%)

All early vote, I think?
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #20 on: May 10, 2016, 08:09:56 PM »
Quote from: jaichind on May 10, 2016, 08:08:38 PM
Quote from: realisticidealist on May 10, 2016, 08:08:12 PM
Nebraska:

Clinton 10835 (61.26%)
Sanders 6851 (38.74%)

All early vote, I think?

I think that is the caucus result for a couple of months ago

No, Sanders won the caucus
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #21 on: May 10, 2016, 08:11:38 PM »
Quote from: yourelection on May 10, 2016, 08:10:55 PM

Nebraska Dems are not voting today. Only Reps.

Nope. There's a beauty contest there
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #22 on: May 10, 2016, 08:16:35 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on May 10, 2016, 08:13:27 PM
Quote from: BundouYMB on May 10, 2016, 08:11:34 PM
Quote from: realisticidealist on May 10, 2016, 08:08:12 PM
Nebraska:

Clinton 10835 (61.26%)
Sanders 6851 (38.74%)

All early vote, I think?

Sanders' campaign is such a joke. His entire campaign strategy was to win places where the vast majority of the electorate is disenfranchised (caucuses) or by tacitly appealing to racists and misogynists (OK & WV.) And to top it all off he still lost in a landslide! Hope it was worth it to him represent the party's vilest elements! Good use of 100 million dollars!

Why should his campaign worry about a beauty contest?

If he loses the Nebraska primary, it might bode poorly for the South Dakota primary.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #23 on: May 10, 2016, 08:29:34 PM »
Clinton under 40% in WV
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #24 on: May 10, 2016, 08:47:30 PM »
Sanders over 50% statewide in WV
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