FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Close races everywhere (Trump +4 in OH, Clinton +1 in FL/PA

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Considering Quinnipiac's earlier results (especially PA), these actually aren't that bad for Clinton. Either way, Little Donny is probably getting a bounce right now, and I expect Hillary to get one in June, after the dust has settled a bit.

This. Hillary will have a bounce after June 7th.

[Virginiá]

The increase by 2-3 points of the non-white share of voters in Presidential elections since 1992 has been quite consistent.  It's something that has transcended individual elections.  I know Trump is a unique candidate, and perhaps he is energizing racist and blue-collar whites, but he's also energizing Latinos and other minority groups.  I think those factors will be a wash, and we'll see another 2-3 point increase.

Yes. If this poll is predicated on the notion that the 2016 electorate will be more white than 2012, then it is dead wrong. Not only was 2016 widely understood to be 2%~ less white than 2012 (if not more) no matter who was running, the Trump effect would create a situation where higher minority turnout could actually make the electorate even less white than expected.

At the very least, 2016 will definitely reflect ongoing demographic trends, not a rollback to pre-2012. I'm sure we'll see more legitimate polls with close numbers like this, but the demographics have to be right, otherwise it is inaccurate.

[IceSpear]

Contradicts every other recent national/state poll, so we'll see if it's corroborated soon enough. It's possible Trump is getting a post nomination bounce.

[Dr. Arch]

So do these polls (meaning all Florida polls) take into account the recent influx of Puerto Ricans into the state?

I doubt it does, and I'm getting 10 of them to vote in November too

[IceSpear]

Also, I'm surprised people are freaking out so badly over this. Even if you assume this poll is accurate, it's not a big deal. Polls bounce around. In fact, Trump is probably going to objectively be in the lead at some point. Perhaps during the RNC bounce, or if Hillary makes some gaffe, or if the media goes into a tizzy about a manufactured faux scandal. Even Dukakis and McCain led at certain points, so it's very likely Trump will as well. The media wants a horserace. Brace yourselves for it.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Also, I'm surprised people are freaking out so badly over this. Even if you assume this poll is accurate, it's not a big deal. Polls bounce around. In fact, Trump is probably going to objectively be in the lead at some point. Perhaps during the RNC bounce, or if Hillary makes some gaffe, or if the media goes into a tizzy about a manufactured faux scandal. Even Dukakis and McCain led at certain points, so it's very likely Trump will as well. The media wants a horserace. Brace yourselves for it.

That's what they were saying a year ago...

[Pandaguineapig]

Disturbing that the democrats are set to nominate the only person on the planet who is less likeable than Donald Trump. She can take what should be a 15% victory and Thomas Dewey it

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

All the media told us that TRUMP would lose....

The media told us the Iraq war would be the best thing since sliced bread. The media shouldn't be taken seriously.

[Stranger in a strange land]

There's no way 20% of the electorate is undecided. They didn't push leaners hard enough (or, it would seem, at all).