Has opebo been vindicated on the $15 minimum wage?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He was mocked for proposing that, but now a major party candidate for President supports it, Hillary said she would in one debate, and there's a huge movement behind it.

[Asian Nazi]

The Fight for 15 has been around for years and has succeeded in many places.  It hasn't really been an "out there" position in like three years. 

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Well yes, because now several idiots are backing it instead of just one idiot.

[Clark Kent]

It was ridiculous then and it's ridiculous now.

[RFayette]

He was mocked for proposing that, but now a major party candidate for President supports it, Hillary said she would in one debate, and there's a huge movement behind it.

In a way, yes.  He seemed to be ahead of the curve on that one.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Not really. What would be a living wage depends upon the cost of living. There certainly are areas of this country where a $15 minimum wage is needed, but not everywhere. The current $7.25 Federal minimum is just barely adequate here, if one has a full-time minimum wage job. Good luck finding one of those. The way just-in-time clocking in affects things is a far more serious and universal labor issue in my opinion.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Yes.  I remember I thought in 2008 that the Greens were dumbs for proposing $14.  What an awful little cretin I was.  WAAAAAAY ahead of us on that one, our dear opbeo.

[RFayette]

A $15 minimum wage in 2008 would've been equivalent to $16.59/hour today.  A $15 minimum wage would have been equivalent to supporting ~$13.55 minimum wage in 2008 or $13.75 in 2010 or $14.45 in 2012.  Those rates would've seemed pretty radical, even when taking inflation into account.

http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Perhaps, but not even close to being vindicated on the issue of Bushie and pleading with him never to give up a gummit job (which he did), unless he wants to die in poverty (which he will).

[LLR]

I basically agree with True Federalist. Here in NY (and in SF and other places like this) $15 would have been reasonable years ago. But in rural Wyoming, I doubt it will be needed for decades to come.

[IceSpear]

Not really. What would be a living wage depends upon the cost of living. There certainly are areas of this country where a $15 minimum wage is needed, but not everywhere. The current $7.25 Federal minimum is just barely adequate here, if one has a full-time minimum wage job. Good luck finding one of those. The way just-in-time clocking in affects things is a far more serious and universal labor issue in my opinion.

Yeah, a blanket $15 is still dumb. That's why many of the states that have passed it adjust it based off cost of living in a particular area, which of course causes cries of "sellout corporate shills!" from the purists who are economically illiterate.

[Eraserhead]

Of course.

[Figueira]

Not really. What would be a living wage depends upon the cost of living. There certainly are areas of this country where a $15 minimum wage is needed, but not everywhere. The current $7.25 Federal minimum is just barely adequate here, if one has a full-time minimum wage job. Good luck finding one of those. The way just-in-time clocking in affects things is a far more serious and universal labor issue in my opinion.

Yeah, a blanket $15 is still dumb. That's why many of the states that have passed it adjust it based off cost of living in a particular area, which of course causes cries of "sellout corporate shills!" from the purists who are economically illiterate.

This is kind of the conclusion I'm starting to draw as well--are there any solid arguments to the contrary?

[DC Al Fine]

Not really no. He was advocating for an immediate raise to $15/hr going back years and years, while the laws being pushed are for a gradual (read: the final result will not be $15 in 2016 dollars) increase. If you adjust for inflation, he started advocating for a $17-$18 minimum wage and the politicians are pushing something closer to $10-$12.

[DC Al Fine]

Also he had this really annoying habit of stating that working class guys all made the equivalent of $60-$70k back in the 1960's and got into that 'the stats are rigged' bullsh!t when challenged.

[Phony Moderate]

Allowing for currency adjustments, $15 is only slightly more than what the Conservative government here is proposing to raise it to by 2020.

[muon2]

Vindicated - no, supported by politicians who ignore real economic data - yes. Here's my post about the CA minimum wage increase.

I find the inflationary aspect of this issue to be fascinating. In the 2013 SOTU Obama called for the federal minimum wage to rise to $9.00 by 2015. In 2014 Obama called for it to rise to $10.10 and backed it up with a federal order for $10.10 effective in 2015. That's 12% inflation in one year for the President's request.

Later in 2015 Seattle passes its increase in the minimum wage starting at $11 in 2015 and rising to $15 in 2019. $15 seems to be the rallying cry, but note that's a 67% increase over Obama's original request. Furthermore these increases become adjusted for inflation after they reach their target. So presumably that target should make some economic sense.

CNN/Money has an interactive graph of the inflation adjusted federal minimum wage. Its peak was in 1968 at $10.68 in 2015 dollars. Between 1961 and 1980 the inflation adjusted minimum wage was between $7.67 and $10.68. Only one year was under $8.00 and only two over $10.00. The median during those 20 years was $9.28. I was even a minimum wage earner during part of that period.

After the 2014 SOTU I looked up the federal data on the positive impact of minimum wage based on additional money spent by those wage earners vs the negative impact based on money lost due to job losses. The break even point in 2013 was about $9.00 which is consistent with the high range from the 1960's and 70's. Accounting for inflation since 2013 would put the point at $9.16.

The two pieces of actual economic data suggest that the federal minimum wage ought to be around $9.25. That's actually very much in agreement with Obama's original request in 2013. It's also reasonable to expect that localities with high costs of living might also have a higher minimum wage. I'd just rather see it derived from actual economic studies rather than a gut feeling for what is right.

[Torie]

The idea of having a minimum wage that is the same across the US is very poor policy, given the vast differences in cost of living and what the local economy will support across the Fruited Plain. Thus in NY, Mario Cuomo understood that the minimum wage in upstate NY needed to be lower than in the NYC metro area. Otherwise, the upstate economy, already anemic, would become even sicker.

I used to be hostile to the idea of the minimum wage, because it creates barriers to low skilled workers getting jobs, but we have a different ball game with the earned income tax credit and the like. Without a minimum wage, consider this example. Some business pays its workers $5 an hour, and with the earned income tax credit and other federal subsidies, the taxpayers one way of the other might end up paying the worker another $8 an hour, thereby subsidizing the employer by paying a majority of its workers' compensation. Not good, to say the least.

Working through all the public policy ramifications of any scheme to get the right balance is not easy, and its getting more complicated all the time as we (and we should to the extent that we can afford it), try to make the social safety net for those most under financial stress, more robust.

[dead0man]

It's pretty funny that this is the thing opedo got the most right according to his biggest fan, and he's still so freaking wrong. 

(and the voting!  ahahahaha, you guys)

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

(and the voting!  ahahahaha, you guys)

Thanks for reminding me, dull0.  I forgot to vote.

[dead0man]

You'll fit in somewhere (eventually) big guy.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

You'll fit in somewhere (eventually) big guy.

He's a moderator at the Good Place.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

You'll fit in somewhere (eventually) big guy.

He's a moderator at the Good Place.

thailandelectionatlas.org ?