What would it have taken for Sanders to win?
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  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  What would it have taken for Sanders to win?
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Author Topic: What would it have taken for Sanders to win?  (Read 670 times)
tmthforu94
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« on: May 11, 2016, 12:27:12 AM »

What would it have taken for Bernie Sanders to beat Hillary in 2016?

Here's how I see it: Bernie squeaks by in Iowa. With the added momentum, he's able to triumph in New Hampshire and narrowly pull it out in the Nevada before losing by 30ish% in South Carolina. Super Tuesday is still a good day for Clinton, though Bernie is able to keep her margins down a bit in the South and narrowly wins in Massachusetts. Clinton was able to bounce back, but people see Bernie as a viable threat. He furthers concerns in the Clinton camp by winning Michigan the following week. At this point, people view it as a horse race. March 15th is what seals Hillary's fate: Sanders comfortably wins in Illinois and Missouri while barely pulling it out in Ohio. Clinton struggles to win in North Carolina and wins Florida by a big margin. People now see the race tilting towards Sanders, and super delegates begin jumping from Clinton camp to undecided - some flip to Bernie. Clinton's campaign is resurrected by a win in Arizona, but struggles after losing several caucuses in a row and Wisconsin in early April. Clinton is able to defend her home turf, but a win by Sanders in Pennsylvania essentially seals the deal for him. Clinton remains in the race, but Sanders dominates the rest of the way, with Clinton only able to pick up New Jersey, New Mexico and D.C.



Not sure what the delegate math would look like with this, nor the popular vote. Though I assume it would give Sanders a narrow popular vote and delegate lead.
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2016, 01:07:41 AM »

I actually think your map is more or less what the Sanders campaign had drawn out as their "path to victory."

I'd previously mentioned here that Bernie needed to have secured comfortable wins in all of Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada to have much of a shot down the calendar - which itself would not have meant that Bernie could have claimed frontrunner status, but rather that he could not have afforded either a loss or a meagre victory in either one to truly shape the narrative of the race.  Even then, the cards would have been stacked against him because Hillary would have campaigned more aggressively and negatively, we would have seen more "subtle endorsements" from the White House, etc.  Plus Hillary's numbers with minorities would've still been consistent enough to keep Sanders from attaining a majority of the delegates.

Short answer: It would've taken a hell of a lot, and probably a lot more than what Bernie had at his disposal.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2016, 07:40:55 PM »

An Iowa win by 5+, followed by a NH win by 25-30(he won by 22.5%), and then a NV win by three to eight points. If he then contested SC and lost by under twenty instead of thirty-five, he'd be the clear front runner.
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