WV-gov: Who wins in November?

[Figueira]

This could be a close race.

[Sir Mohamed]

Cole in a coal state. Obama has turned WV into a GOP stronghold for a long time. At the state level.

[Holmes]

Probably Cole, but Justice is scummy enough that West Virginians might give the race to him.

[BuckeyeNut]

Appalachia's reaction to Obama has been largely based on race. While the GOP has made in-roads in State Legislature, if Justice can distance himself from the national party, he might make it. I'm not sure why so many people here think he will be crushed.

[JMT]

I don't think Cole will win in a landslide like some others think, but ultimately I think Cole wins. Justice will make it competitive, but I think West Virginia is too republican to elect a New Democratic governor. So I say Cole wins somewhere between 5 and 10 points

[Heisenberg]

Appalachia's reaction to Obama has been largely based on race. While the GOP has made in-roads in State Legislature, if Justice can distance himself from the national party, he might make it. I'm not sure why so many people here think he will be crushed.

George W Bush also won WV both times, so it's not just Obama responsible for the state's GOP trend. Cole for coal!

[Maxwell]

Cole is the favorite, but if Justice can attach himself enough to some of the rhetorical elements of Donald Trump I think he can make it a race at least.

But boy would I love it if Justice won - Cole is utter scum.

[Xing]

Cole will probably win easily. It'll be too fitting for WV to have a governor whose name sounds like coal.

[IceSpear]

Cole by double digits.

[Lothal1]

Appalachia's reaction to Obama has been largely based on race. While the GOP has made in-roads in State Legislature, if Justice can distance himself from the national party, he might make it. I'm not sure why so many people here think he will be crushed.

It's not race, it is the loss of jobs as a result of the Democratic platform. When the state's only major industry is Coal mining and their own party starts to oppose it, they vote against it. The same exact thing happened in western PA (not Pennsyltucky land too). Also, Al Gore.

[NewYorkExpress]

Probably Cole... and I wouldn't too surprised if Manchin lost in 2018 either.

[BuckeyeNut]

Appalachia's reaction to Obama has been largely based on race. While the GOP has made in-roads in State Legislature, if Justice can distance himself from the national party, he might make it. I'm not sure why so many people here think he will be crushed.

It's not race, it is the loss of jobs as a result of the Democratic platform. When the state's only major industry is Coal mining and their own party starts to oppose it, they vote against it. The same exact thing happened in western PA (not Pennsyltucky land too). Also, Al Gore.

It's race, at least in part. John Kerry outdid Obama in Appalachia, despite Obama having the better policies for the working class. To say nothing about the difference in field operation.

This trend extends beyond WV--though Keith Judd shows it's worst there, which is unsurprising, given it is the only state to be solely withing the region--and into OH as well, where Obama won. It'd take some further research, but I'd be unsurprised if the trend carried over into NC and other states as well.

I am unsure what you're getting at with your Al Gore comment.

[VPH]

Justice. Look at the way he speaks and campaigns. It's decidedly Trump-like. He has money too.

[Lothal1]

Appalachia's reaction to Obama has been largely based on race. While the GOP has made in-roads in State Legislature, if Justice can distance himself from the national party, he might make it. I'm not sure why so many people here think he will be crushed.

It's not race, it is the loss of jobs as a result of the Democratic platform. When the state's only major industry is Coal mining and their own party starts to oppose it, they vote against it. The same exact thing happened in western PA (not Pennsyltucky land too). Also, Al Gore.

It's race, at least in part. John Kerry outdid Obama in Appalachia, despite Obama having the better policies for the working class. To say nothing about the difference in field operation.

This trend extends beyond WV--though Keith Judd shows it's worst there, which is unsurprising, given it is the only state to be solely withing the region--and into OH as well, where Obama won. It'd take some further research, but I'd be unsurprised if the trend carried over into NC and other states as well.

I am unsure what you're getting at with your Al Gore comment.

Al Gore was the first Democrat to lose West Virginia outside of the landslides of 56, 72, and 84. He also is one of America's most vocal environmentalist and a Kyoto Protocol supporter when he ran.

[BuckeyeNut]

Appalachia's reaction to Obama has been largely based on race. While the GOP has made in-roads in State Legislature, if Justice can distance himself from the national party, he might make it. I'm not sure why so many people here think he will be crushed.

It's not race, it is the loss of jobs as a result of the Democratic platform. When the state's only major industry is Coal mining and their own party starts to oppose it, they vote against it. The same exact thing happened in western PA (not Pennsyltucky land too). Also, Al Gore.

It's race, at least in part. John Kerry outdid Obama in Appalachia, despite Obama having the better policies for the working class. To say nothing about the difference in field operation.

This trend extends beyond WV--though Keith Judd shows it's worst there, which is unsurprising, given it is the only state to be solely withing the region--and into OH as well, where Obama won. It'd take some further research, but I'd be unsurprised if the trend carried over into NC and other states as well.

I am unsure what you're getting at with your Al Gore comment.

Al Gore was the first Democrat to lose West Virginia outside of the landslides of 56, 72, and 84. He also is one of America's most vocal environmentalist and a Kyoto Protocol supporter when he ran.

Okay. That doesn't particularly run counter to anything I've said. I never said it was all racial, only that it was a factor, especially when you look at Applachia's reaction to Obama specifically--as opposed to Gore or Kerry. If white democrats underperform Obama in 2020 and 2024, I will retract that statement.

[sportydude]

Jim Justice he's called? LOL
Sounds like the ninth installment of the X-Men film series. 😂

[Gog]

It'll be tight, and depends on what Justice will say about Trump. If he denounces him and all that he'll lose but it'll be like 54-46 ish.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Jim Justice he's called? LOL
Sounds like the ninth installment of the X-Men film series. 😂

Sounds as ironic as Charles Justice

[henster]

I find it odd Justice ran as a Democrat to begin with. He was recently a Republican and his message and candidate profile would seem more in sync with the party.

[IceSpear]

I find it odd Justice ran as a Democrat to begin with. He was recently a Republican and his message and candidate profile would seem more in sync with the party.

It's not like people who should be Republicans running as Democrats is a rarity in West Virginia.

[Maxwell]

I find it odd Justice ran as a Democrat to begin with. He was recently a Republican and his message and candidate profile would seem more in sync with the party.

He's probably not a raging radical, which is what it takes to be a Republican now.

[DINGO Joe]

Given that the overarching fantasy of the average WV voter seems to be to make coal great again, why people think WV would vote for a car salesman over a coal baron is beyond me.

[IceSpear]

Given that the overarching fantasy of the average WV voter seems to be to make coal great again, why people think WV would vote for a car salesman over a coal baron is beyond me.

The letter after their respective names, that's why. Loving coal for decades didn't save Nick Rahall.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Given that the overarching fantasy of the average WV voter seems to be to make coal great again, why people think WV would vote for a car salesman over a coal baron is beyond me.

The letter after their respective names, that's why. Loving coal for decades didn't save Nick Rahall.

2014. Don't forget he won by 8 points in 2012.


I know it's fun to hate on West Virginia, but a +18 poll for Justice is definitely reason to believe he has a shot at winning. Ultimately, I expect Cole to win, but the margin won't be anything to write home about. Downballot, Tennant will lose, Morrisey will be re-elected, and republicans should get the open auditor seat, but the D incumbents for Ag Commissioner and Treasurer are probably slight favorites. Manchin is probably the Hagan of 2018 - He can go down with nearly everyone else in a big wave, but otherwise he'll survive narrowly.

[IceSpear]

Given that the overarching fantasy of the average WV voter seems to be to make coal great again, why people think WV would vote for a car salesman over a coal baron is beyond me.

The letter after their respective names, that's why. Loving coal for decades didn't save Nick Rahall.

2014. Don't forget he won by 8 points in 2012.


I know it's fun to hate on West Virginia, but a +18 poll for Justice is definitely reason to believe he has a shot at winning. Ultimately, I expect Cole to win, but the margin won't be anything to write home about. Downballot, Tennant will lose, Morrisey will be re-elected, and republicans should get the open auditor seat, but the D incumbents for Ag Commissioner and Treasurer are probably slight favorites. Manchin is probably the Hagan of 2018 - He can go down with nearly everyone else in a big wave, but otherwise he'll survive narrowly.

So you think 2014 was an aberration due to the wave? I disagree. I think it was the death knell of the Democratic Party in Appalachia. Rahall survived easily even in 2010, which was a wave just like 2014. I was also insistent that Conway would lose even while everyone else was believing the polls showing him ahead. My prediction: Cole wins by double digits, and Manchin retires or gets Blanched.

Time will tell which of us is right.

Btw, that poll was junk. It had Sanders and Justice only barely winning their respective primaries.