Earl's Canadian Electoral Reform Proposal Thread
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« on: May 11, 2016, 11:02:49 AM »

Now that the Liberals have announced they will be forming a committee on electoral reform, I think it's time to develop my own proposal.

My plan would be to reduce the number of ridings by about 25%, and have the remaining seats be elected from party lists in each region, using proportional representation. Smaller provinces (all 4 Atlantic Canada provinces) would be a region of themselves, while the other provinces would be divided into regions. This way for example Northern Ontario can keep its 10 seats.

So, first let's look at PEI. PEI would be reduced to 3 constitency seats with the fourth elected from party lists.

Here is my proposed map:



Quotient: 46,735

Ridings:
Prince
(All of Prince County)
Population: 44,348 (-5.11%)
2015 result: Liberal

Kings--Queens
(All of Kings County plus all of Queens County outside of Charlottetown, Stratford and Cornwall)
Population: 47,558 (+1.76%)
2015 result: Liberal

Hillsborough
(Charlottetown, Stratford & Cornwall)
Population: 48,298 (+3.35%)
2015 result: Liberal

2015 result:
Liberal: 58.30% (entitled to 3 seats)
Conservative: 19.32% (entitled to 1 seat)
NDP: 16.01% (0)
Green: 6.04% (0)
Other: 0.34% (0)

So, with the Liberals winning all 3 constituencies, the Conservatives would win the additional list seat.


For extra fun, let's imagine who the MPs might be:
Kings--Queens: Lawrence MacAulay or Wayne Easter
Hillsborough: Sean Casey
Prince: Bobby Morrissey
List: Gail Shea
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2016, 11:12:36 AM »

Why was this moved ? This has more to do with elections and threads like this are usually in the international elections forum.
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Vega
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« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2016, 03:22:14 PM »

MMM like they do in Japan and South Korea is the way to go.

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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2016, 03:58:33 PM »

Newfoundland and Labrador:

This province has 7 seats, so 2/7 is close enough to 25%.  That means there would be 5 constituencies. Labrador has been protected as a seat in past redistribution, so despite it being very small, I will still keep it as one district (unlikely a list candidate would come from there anyways). Therefore, the provincial quotient would be based on 4 island districts: 121,952.

My proposed map:


Ridings:

St. John's--Mount Pearl
(St. John's, Petty Harbour-Maddox Cove, Mount Pearl)
Population: 131,380 (+7.73%)
2015 result: Liberal

Avalon
(Current Avalon riding, plus the rest of St. John's area not in St. John's--Mount Pearl)
Population: 114,040 (-6.49%)
2015 result: Liberal

Long Range Mountains--Baie Verte--Grand Falls-Windsor
(Provincial ridings of Baie Verte-Green Bay, Burgeo-La Poile, Corner Brook, Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans, Humber-Grose Morne, Humber-Bay of Islands, St. Barbe-L'Anse aux Meadows, St. George's-Humber, Stephenville-Port au Port and the part of Exploits in Grand Falls-Windsor)
Population: ~116,769 (-4.25%)
2015 result: Liberal

Terra Nova
(Everything else; Bonavista, Burin, Trinity, Gander, Twillingate areas)
Population: ~125,619 (+3.01%)
2015 result: Liberal

Labrador
(Labrador)
Population: 26,728 (n/a)
2015 result: Liberal

2015 results:
Liberal: 64.49% (entitled to 6 seats)
NDP: 21.10% (1)
Conservative: 10.32% (0)
Green: 1.08% (0)
Other: 3% (0)

Considering the Liberals would've won all 5 constituency seats, they would split the list seats with the NDP.

Possible MPs:
St. John's—Mount Pearl: Seamus O'Regan
Avalon: Ken McDonald
Long Range Mountains—Baie Verte—Grand Falls-Windsor: Gurdie Hutchings
Terra Nova: Scott Simms
Labrador: Yvonne Jones
List:   Judy Foote
List:   Jack Harris

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Cranberry
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« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2016, 12:10:36 PM »

Please go on, this is very interesting.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2016, 03:56:54 PM »
« Edited: May 16, 2016, 10:29:03 AM by 🍁 Hatman »

Please go on, this is very interesting.

I'm glad someone's paying attention! Smiley

Here's New Brunswick:

New Brunswick has 10 seats, so 75% is 7.5 constituency seats. I intend to always round down to allow for as many proportional seats as possible, so this means New Brunswick would have 7 constituency seats and 3 list seats. The quotient for the province would thus be 107,310.

My proposed map:


Ridings:
Saint John--Charlotte
(Saint John County, Charlotte County)
Population: 103,099 (-3.92%)
2015 result: Liberal

Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe
(Moncton, Riverview, Dieppe)
Population: 115,512 (+3.92%)
2015 result: Liberal

Beauséjour--Upper Miramichi
(Albert County outside of Riverview, Westmorland County outside of Dieppe & Moncton, Kent County, Hardwick, Glenelg, Rogersville, Rogersville Parish, Nelson, Derby, Blackville, Blackville Parish, Blissfield, Doaktown, Upper Miramichi)
Population: 107,452 (+0.13%)
2015 result: Liberal

Acadie-Bathurst--Miramichi
(Gloucester County, and the rest of Northumberland County)
Population: 114,186 (+6.41%)
2015 result: Liberal

Tobique--Madawaska--Restigouche
(Restigouche County, Madawaska County, Victoria County, Carleton County)
Population: 112,956 (+5.26%)
2015 result: Liberal

York
(York County)
Population: 97,238 (-9.39%)
2015 result: Liberal

Sunbury Royal
(Sunbury County, Kings County, Kings County)
Population: 107,894 (+0.54%)
2015 result: Liberal

2015 results:
Liberal: 51.56% (entitled to 6 seats)
Conservative: 25.37% (2)
NDP: 18.36% (2)
Green: 4.65% (0)
Other: 0.07% (0)

So, here we have a situation where the Liberals won more seats then they are entitled to with the constituency seats. Since the Conservatives are entitled to the next seat in D'hondt, then let's say they keep their 2 list seats and the NDP just gets one.

Possible MPs:
Acadie-Bathurst--Miramichi: Serge Cormier
Beauséjour--Upper Miramichi: Dominic LeBlanc
York: Matt DeCourcey
Sunbury Royal: either Alaina Lockhart 
Tobique--Madawaska--Restigouche: René Arseneault or TJ Harvey
Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe: Ginette Petitpas Taylor
Saint John--Charlotte: Karen Ludwig or Wayne Long
List: Bernard Valcourt and Rob Moore
List: Jason Godin 


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Sol
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« Reply #6 on: May 13, 2016, 06:53:49 PM »

This is super cool--I'm excited to see what weird stuff this does in QC. Smiley
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #7 on: May 13, 2016, 07:03:23 PM »

I take it from your first couple entries you are eliminating the intra-regional variations in riding population? E.g. Miramichi-Grand Lake has roughly 2/3 of the population of Monton-Riverview-Dieppe, but you seem to have eliminated disparity with the exception of the North.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #8 on: May 13, 2016, 09:56:58 PM »

It might make sense for ON/QC to have list seats allocated by region considering the sizes of the provinces.

I wonder how much trouble it is estimating who won in the 4-way QC ridings...
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #9 on: May 14, 2016, 05:21:34 PM »

It might make sense for ON/QC to have list seats allocated by region considering the sizes of the provinces.

I wonder how much trouble it is estimating who won in the 4-way QC ridings...

My plan is that any region with more than 12 seats will be subdivided, so outside of Atlantic Canada you will see large list seats.
I take it from your first couple entries you are eliminating the intra-regional variations in riding population? E.g. Miramichi-Grand Lake has roughly 2/3 of the population of Monton-Riverview-Dieppe, but you seem to have eliminated disparity with the exception of the North.

I was going for population equality, although an argument could be had to make the northern ridings smaller. However as I discovered, New Brunswick is much more easily divided into 7 ridings than the 10 seat monstrosity they have now.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #10 on: May 16, 2016, 10:29:17 AM »

I did the math, and my "Sunbury Royal" district would have indeed gone Liberal. I've updated by NB post to reflect this.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #11 on: May 16, 2016, 11:28:12 AM »

Nova Scotia

Nova Scotia has 11 seats, so that means they get 8 constituency seats. The quotient would therefore be 115,216.

Map:



Ridings:
Cape Breton--Victoria
(Cape Breton RM, Victoria County)
Population: 108,734 (-5.63%)
2015 result: Liberal

Cape Breton--Highland--Eastern Shore
(Richmond County, Inverness County, Guysborough County, Antigonish County, Pictou County, Halifax RM east of Porters Lake)
Population: 115,962 (+0.65%)
2015 result: Liberal

Cumberland--Colchester--Hants
(Cumberland County, Colchester County, Hants County)
Population: 124,625 (+8.17%)
2015 result: Liberal

Annapolis Valley--Yarmouth
(Kings County, Annapolis County, Digby County, Yarmouth County outside Argyle)
Population: 116,404 (+1.03%)
2015 result: Liberal

South Shore--St. Margarets
(Argyle, Shelburne County, Queens County, Lunenburg County, St. Margarets Bay area & Timberlea in Halifax RM)
Population: 111,820 (-2.95%)
2015 result: Liberal

Halifax
(Halifax peninsula, Bridgeview, Clayton Park, Fairview, Fairmount, Armdale, Melville Cove, Jollimore, Governor's Brook, eastern Chebucto peninsula)
Population: 112,697 (-2.19%)
2015 result: Liberal

Dartmouth--Cole Harbour--Lawrencetown
(Dartmouth, Cole Harbour, Eastern Passage, Portland Valley, Cow Bay, Westphal, Lawrencetown)
Population: 111,601 (-3.14%)
2015 result: Liberal

Sackville--Bedford--Preston
(Glenbourne, Kearney Lake, Hammonds Plains, Lucasville, Bedford, Sackville, Preston, Beaver Bank, Shubenacadie Lake area, Dutch Settlement, Lake Echo, Lakeside, Beechville)
Population: 119,884 (+4.05%)
2015 result: Liberal

2015 results:
Liberal: 62.03% (entitled to 7 seats)
Conservative: 17.89% (2)
NDP: 16.32% (2)
Green: 3.37% (0)
Other: 0.39% (0)

Again we have a situation where the Liberals won more constituency seats than they would be entitled to using PR. So their extra seat would come at the expense of the NDP.

Possible MPs:
Cape Breton--Victoria: Rodger Cuzner or Mark Eyking (alternatively one of these guys could represent the other Cape Breton riding instead of Fraser)
Cape Breton--Highland--Eastern Shore: Sean Fraser
Cumberland--Colchester--Hants: Bill Casey
Annapolis Valley--Yarmouth: Scott Brison (though, he doesn't live in the district)
South Shore--St. Margarets: Bernadette Jordan
Sackville--Bedford--Preston: Geoff Regan
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour--Lawrencetown: Darren Fisher
Halifax: Andy Fillmore
List: Scott Armstrong and Arnold LeBlanc, I guess
List: Megan Leslie or Peter Stoffer

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #12 on: May 16, 2016, 04:53:50 PM »

I approve of this map and any map that gets rid of the stupid Central Nova and West Nova names. Tongue
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #13 on: May 16, 2016, 05:00:39 PM »

Earl, what are you using to draw your maps? It looks like you are using county lines and major streets in parts of Halifax but the map doesn't have streets or county lines.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #14 on: May 16, 2016, 05:42:22 PM »

I approve of this map and any map that gets rid of the stupid Central Nova and West Nova names. Tongue
I look forward to the undoing of the Barrie monstrosity.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #15 on: May 16, 2016, 08:44:59 PM »

I approve of this map and any map that gets rid of the stupid Central Nova and West Nova names. Tongue

Yes, I loathe those kinds of provincial directional names, so you won't be seeing me use them. I hope the names I used meet your approval.

I'm using a GIS program for the maps (then I use Pain to draw the riding boundaries). The thin mauve boundaries are municipal & census tract boundaries. I haven't added a roads layer as that would crash the program.
I approve of this map and any map that gets rid of the stupid Central Nova and West Nova names. Tongue
I look forward to the undoing of the Barrie monstrosity.

Yeah, Barrie will most likely return to being a single district. For now...


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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #16 on: May 17, 2016, 10:02:27 AM »
« Edited: May 19, 2016, 10:23:24 AM by 🍁 Hatman »

Time for Saskatchewan.

I'm now done with the provinces that constitute regions in of themselves. Every other province will be divided in to list regions, starting with Saskatchewan. Saskatchewan has 14 seats, so the best way to divide the province is to have two regions of 7 seats each (North and South). A 7 seat region would have 2 list seats each, so both northern and southern Saskatchewan would have 5 constituency seats. In this post, I will just cover southern Saskatchewan.

It would have been easier to just divide Saskatchewan into two regions of 7 ridings each, but such a division would look rather ugly. So, I created my own line. It's more or less straight, but as you can see, I had to snake it around the Saskatoon CMA (metro area). The total population south of this line is 516,337, making the quotient for southern Saskatchewan 103,267.

Map:


Ridings:
Cypress Hills--Grasslands--Heartland
(Major communities: Swift Current, Kinderley, Assiniboia, Rosetown, Outlook, Maple Creek, Biggar, Shaunavon)
Population: 98,232 (-4.88%)
2015 result: Conservative

Sun Country--Parkland
(Major communities: Yorkton, Estevan, Weyburn, Melville, Moosomin, Esterhazy)
Population: 102,850 (-0.40%)
2015 result: Conservative

Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Qu'Appelle
(Major communities: Moose Jaw, Canora, Fort Qu'Appelle, Watrous, Kamsack, Indian Head, Wynyard)
Population: 104,699 (+1.39%)
2015 result: Conservative

Regina East
(Regina and Sherwood RM east of Hwy 6, Edenwold RM, Edenwold, Balgonie, Pilot Butte, White City)
Population: 101,840 (-1.38%)
2015 result: Liberal

Regina West
(Regina and Sherwood RM west of Hwy 6, Grand Coulee, Pense, Belle Plaine, Lumsden, Lumsden RM, Pense RM, Disley, Regina Beach, Buena Vista, Lumsden Beach)
Population: 108,716 (+5.28%)
2015 result: Conservative (by just 791 votes)

2015 results:
Conservative: 51.18% (entitled to 4 seats)
Liberal: 24.78% (2)
NDP: 21.51% (1)
Green: 2.31% (0)
Other: 0.21% (0)

Since the constituency split was 4/1, the NDP and Liberals both get one list seat each.

Possible MPs:
Cypress Hills--Grasslands--Heartland: David Anderson
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Qu'Appelle: Andrew Scheer (though he doesn't live in this district)
Regina East: Ralph Goodale
Regina West: Tom Lukiwski
Sun Country--Parkland: Robert Kitchen or Cathay Wagantall
List: Louis Browne
List: Erin Weir


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« Reply #17 on: May 18, 2016, 09:59:41 PM »

I love the name 'kings queens'
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #18 on: May 19, 2016, 11:20:23 AM »
« Edited: May 19, 2016, 11:30:36 AM by 🍁 Hatman »

Northern Saskatchewan

Same deal as Southern Saskatchewan. 7 seats, 5 constituency, 2 list. Quotient is 104,409.

Map:


Ridings:
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River
(Major communities: Meadow Lake, Nipawin, Tisdale, La Loche, La Ronge)
Population: 93,418 (-9.66%)
2015 result: Conservative

Battlefords--Lloydminster--Sask Valley
(Major communities: North Battleford, Lloydminster, Martensville, Battleford, Unity, Dalmeny)
Population: 101,950 (-1.41%)
2015 result: Conservative

Prince Albert--Humboldt--Dundurn
(Major communities: Prince Albert, Warman, Humboldt, Melfort, Rosthern)
Population: 98,602  (-4.65%)
2015 result: Conservative

Saskatoon West
(Saskatoon west of the South Saskatchewan River to Broadway St to Ruth St. to Lorne St)
Population: 110,276 (+6.64%)
2015 result: NDP

Saskatoon East
(Saskatoon east of the South Saskatchewan River to Broadway St to Ruth St. to Lorne St)
Population: 111,913 (+8.22%)
2015 result: Conservative


2015 results:
Conservative: 45.85% (entitled to 4 seats)
NDP: 28.79% (2)
Liberal: 22.91% (1)
Green: 1.87% (0)
Other: 0.58% (0)

With the constituency seats splits 4/1 the list seats go to the NDP and Liberals

Possible MPs:
Battlefords--Lloydminster--Sask Valley: Gerry Ritz
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River: Rob Clarke
Prince Albert--Humboldt--Dundurn: Randy Hoback
Saskatoon East: Brad Trost
Saskatoon West: Sheri Benson
List: Georgina Jolibois
List: Lawrence Joseph

And just like that, we would have 3 MPs elected who in real life ran in the same riding Tongue



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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #19 on: May 20, 2016, 04:35:33 AM »

I approve of this map and any map that gets rid of the stupid Central Nova and West Nova names. Tongue

Yes, I loathe those kinds of provincial directional names, so you won't be seeing me use them. I hope the names I used meet your approval.

For the most part yeah. One minor quibble is that Pictou isn't part of Cape Breton-Highland-Eastern Shore despite being roughly half of the riding. No worries though, it's still miles ahead of the most recent redistribution Tongue
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #20 on: May 20, 2016, 08:21:01 AM »

I approve of this map and any map that gets rid of the stupid Central Nova and West Nova names. Tongue

Yes, I loathe those kinds of provincial directional names, so you won't be seeing me use them. I hope the names I used meet your approval.

For the most part yeah. One minor quibble is that Pictou isn't part of Cape Breton-Highland-Eastern Shore despite being roughly half of the riding. No worries though, it's still miles ahead of the most recent redistribution Tongue

Ah well, I'm trying to avoid having 4 place names in one riding title. Pictou is in the "Highland" tourist region of Nova Scotia, so it's  been covered Wink
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #21 on: May 20, 2016, 10:16:18 AM »
« Edited: May 20, 2016, 10:19:21 AM by 🍁 Hatman »

Manitoba

Manitoba also has 14 ridings, but 8 of them are in the Winnipeg area. To protect community of interest, I have decided to split Manitoba into two un-even regions. Winnipeg will have 8 seats (6 constituency, 2 list) and the rest of Manitoba will have 6 (4 and 2 respectively).

To make the 2 regions as close to the provincial quotient as possible, I've added the Sprinfield RM to the Winnipeg region in addition to area that currently exists within Winnipeg's 8 real life ridings (Winnipeg, Headingly RM, East St. Paul RM and West St. Paul RM).

The quotient for Winnipeg is thus 115,813.



For this map, I've drawn inspiration from the early 1980s riding map of the city...

Ridings:

Winnipeg--Birds Hill
(East. St. Paul RM, Springfield RM, and Winnipeg east of the Red River and north of the following line: Trent Ave, Golspie St, Dobbie Ave, Gateway Rd, Munroe Ave, Panet Rd, CN railway, Plessis Rd)
Population: 116,954 (+0.99%)
2015 result: Conservative

St. Boniface--St. Vital--Elmwood
(Winnipeg east of the Red River south of the following line: Trent Ave, Golspie St, Dobbie Ave, Gateway Rd, Munroe Ave, Panet Rd, CN railway, Plessis Rd and north of the following line: River Rd, Vista Ave, Wyoming St, Woodydell Ave, Dakota St, Hawkins Cres, Whitley Dr, Ashworth St, Woodydell Ave, Thunder Bay, Bramton St, Woodydell Ave, Seine River, western prolongation of Kotelko Dr, Hwy 59)
Population: 114,576 (-1.07%)
2015 result: Liberal

Winnipeg South
(Winnipeg south of the following line: McCreary Rd, CN railway, Wilkes Ave, Hurst Way, Parker Ave, Pembina Hwy, Croydon Ave, Red River, River Rd, Vista Ave, Wyoming St, Woodydell Ave, Dakota St, Hawkins Cres, Whitley Dr, Ashworth St, Woodydell Ave, Thunder Bay, Bramton St, Woodydell Ave, Seine River, western prolongation of Kotelko Dr, Hwy 59)
Population: 112,649 (-2.73%)
2015 result: Liberal

Winnipeg--Assiniboine
(Winnipeg west of the following line: Notre Dame Ave, St. James St, Portage Ave, Aubrey St, Waverley St, CN railway, McCreary Rd)
Population: 118,451 (+2.28%)
2015 result: Liberal

Winnipeg North--West St. Paul
(West St. Paul RM and Winnipeg west of the Red River and north of the following line: Notre Dame Ave, Keewatin St, CP railway, McPhillips St, Burrows Ave, Salter St, St. Johns Ave)
Population: 118,371 (+2.21%)
2015 result: Liberal

Winnipeg Centre
(Winnipeg within the following line: Notre Dame Ave, Keewatin St, CP railway, McPhillips St, Burrows Ave, Salter St, St. Johns Ave, Red River, Croydon Ave, Pembina Hwy, Parker Ave, Hurst Way, Waverley St, Aubrey St, Portage Ave, St. James St)
Population: 113,878 (-1.67%)
2015 result: Liberal

2015 results:
Liberal: 52.56% (entitled to 5 seats)
Conservative: 30.44% (2)
NDP: 14.10% (1)
Green: 2.63% (0)
Other: 0.27% (0)

With the constituency seats splits 5/1 the list seats go to the NDP and Conservatives.

Possible MPs:
St. Boniface--St. Vital--Elmwood: Dan Vandal
Winnipeg--Assiniboine: Doug Eyolfson or Jim Carr
Winnipeg--Birds Hill: Lawrence Toet
Winnipeg Centre: Robert-Falcon Ouellette
Winnipeg North--West St. Paul: Kevin Lamoureux
Winnipeg South: Terry Duguid
List: Steven Fletcher
List: Pat Martin





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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #22 on: May 22, 2016, 06:26:54 AM »

Glad to start seeing the Tories and NDP start winning FPTP seats. The Atlantic regions were depressing Tongue Looks good so far Earl.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #23 on: May 22, 2016, 02:10:59 PM »

A couple of questions for Hatman

1) If you are doing regions in advance are you finding many where the winning party wins more FPTP seats than their entitlement like the Liberals did in Atlantic Canada?

2) What is your cap for seats in a region? This doesn't really matter with the one's you've done thus far, but it will once you start looking at Toronto or Montreal.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #24 on: May 22, 2016, 08:50:42 PM »

A couple of questions for Hatman

1) If you are doing regions in advance are you finding many where the winning party wins more FPTP seats than their entitlement like the Liberals did in Atlantic Canada?

2) What is your cap for seats in a region? This doesn't really matter with the one's you've done thus far, but it will once you start looking at Toronto or Montreal.

I'm not that far ahead, and I usually do my calculations when I post, so I don't know of anywhere else yet where a party wins more seats than they are entitled to. I suspect it will happen in rural Alberta, though. Probably will happen in Toronto too.

My regional cap is 12 seats. Toronto will be tricky as it has 25 seats, but I have a few ideas in terms of breaking the city up.
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