PRC political ideology by Province

[jaichind]

This paper

http://www.jenpan.com/jen_pan/manuscript_ideology.pdf

By some guys at Harvard and MIT came out with a map (Red -> Left, Blue -> Right)



by province on the PRC on the Left-Right axis. Left is mostly National security/Welfare state/Collectivism/Anti-West while Right is mostly Universality/Free market/Individualism/Pro-West.

The map does not seem too surprising and is fairly correlated with economic development plus rust belt trending Left.

Shandong province being centrist is surprising as I would expect it to tilt Right.

[Asian Nazi]

Yeah aside from Shandong it looks pretty accurate.  The coast benefited the most Deng's reforms and is a more cosmopolitan place.  The interior is still very impoverished but has benefited the most from things like state infrastructure projects and rural electrification.

Here is a map of Chinese provinces by GDP by comparison;



and HDI

[Zuza]

Why these 2 isolated provinces in Central China, Shanxi and Hubei, are so "right-wing" despite their GDP per capita and HDI aren't much different from adjacent regions? Hubei is where Wuhan, one of the largest Chinese cities, is placed, but I doubt it affected study results significantly.

[jaichind]

Why these 2 isolated provinces in Central China, Shanxi and Hubei, are so "right-wing" despite their GDP per capita and HDI aren't much different from adjacent regions? Hubei is where Wuhan, one of the largest Chinese cities, is placed, but I doubt it affected study results significantly.

OK, to answer this I am going to get into some Chinese provincial stereotypes which like all stereotypes have some grain of truth to them.  For Hubei part of it is the fairly liberal and cosmopolitan culture of Wuhan which dominates the overall culture of Hubei.  Also people of Hubei (just like people of Hunan) are considered quite crafty and innovative (the inverse stereotype applies to Anhui and Henan who are considered dull and non-innovative.)   The Right culture in Hubei is more related to the overall cultural of always looking to change and innovate and not being satisfied with the status quo.

For Shanxi, it has to do with the history fof Shanxi.  Until the turn of the 20th century Shanxi was the financial capital of classical China.  Shanxi has historcally been poor in terms of natural resources, especially in terms of agriculture potential.  As a result, to survive Shanxi developed a strong mercantile cultural where Shanxi traders were active all over China.  All the equivalent of the Chinese Fortune 500 in pre-1900s times would find a majority of being merchants living in Shanxi.  As a result Shanxi became the banking center of China.  This created a strong mercantile and financial culture in Shanxi which despite its current lower level of economic development might explain the political and cultural temperament of Shanxi province. 

[Zuza]

Thanks! It's strange that Shanxi is now one of the poorest provinces, despite it's mercantile traditions.

[jaichind]

Thanks! It's strange that Shanxi is now one of the poorest provinces, despite it's mercantile traditions.

Shanxi actually had a large coal based boom a few years back but with the coal bust is running into economic difficulties right now.

[Simfan34]

What exactly would a "rust belt" region be in the Chinese context? There's not much to be rusting yet...

Also, is there any explanation for the apparent belt of poorer inland provinces running from Shanxi to Jiangxi, between the wealthy coast and a second belt of wealthier provinces to their west? Were they "leapfrogged" in the spread of industry into interior China in favor of places further inland? Geographical disadvantages? Poor natural resources? 

I know relatively little about the economic geography of China-- or its geography in general. (It doesn't help that so many of them have confusingly similar names.) Still, I never fail to be surprised when reminded of Inner Mongolia's apparently vast wealth. I can only assume that the place is highly unequal, although it's an assumption grounded purely in intuition. One also wonders who the leftists are in Xinjiang. They can't possibly be the locals.

I'd ask how they were able to collect such data in the first place, but I imagine the answer could be found in the linked document. Alas, I'm too tired to read it now-- maybe later.

[Nhoj]

What exactly would a "rust belt" region be in the Chinese context? There's not much to be rusting yet...

Also, is there any explanation for the apparent belt of poorer inland provinces running from Shanxi to Jiangxi, between the wealthy coast and a second belt of wealthier provinces to their west? Were they "leapfrogged" in the spread of industry into interior China in favor of places further inland? Geographical disadvantages? Poor natural resources? 

I know relatively little about the economic geography of China-- or its geography in general. (It doesn't help that so many of them have confusingly similar names.) Still, I never fail to be surprised when reminded of Inner Mongolia's apparently vast wealth. I can only assume that the place is highly unequal, although it's an assumption grounded purely in intuition. One also wonders who the leftists are in Xinjiang. They can't possibly be the locals.

I'd ask how they were able to collect such data in the first place, but I imagine the answer could be found in the linked document. Alas, I'm too tired to read it now-- maybe later.

The northeast states have had a decent amount of old communist industry that isnt aging well.

[jaichind]

The northeast states have had a decent amount of old communist industry that isnt aging well.

That is exactly what I meant when I said rust belt.  Back in the 1930s-1970s the Northeast was actually the most industrially advanced area of Mainland China mostly due to proximity to natural resources, energy as well as various investments made by Japan during their occupation.  The PRC also, until the 1980s, made large scale investments into the Northeast industrial base.  Since the 1980s the Northeast went from being the most economically advanced area to being average and the relative decline continues.  While Liaoling have made a good transition away from the SOE based heavy industry economy, Jilin and Heilongjiang have not.  Before the Russian crisis of 2014 they could have counted on the Russian trade to help but even that has gone into decline since 2014.  These days it is mostly about economic reform to move away from SOE heavy industry.  They did some of this back in the late 1990s with some success but post-2008 crisis this area has become addicted to cheap credit to keep the old SOE heavy industrial base going.

[Asian Nazi]

One also wonders who the leftists are in Xinjiang. They can't possibly be the locals.

Han make up more than 40% of the population of Xinjiang and there has been a significant Han presence in the province since it was conquered by the Qing in the 18th century.  Uyghurs make up less than 50% of the population, and it's not as if all or even most of them are Islamists or nationalists.

Also, re: Inner Mongolia, it has by some accounts the fastest growing economy in China and has lots of natural resources.  The population has grown significantly as many people from the Beijing area and elsewhere move to the province.  There is also a lot of wealth disparity, as you guessed, between the Han majority (about 80% of the population) and the Mongol minority (around 17% of the population) though the Mongols are much better integrated than the Uyghurs are.  One mindscrew statistic is that, despite making up such a minority, there are actually twice as many Mongols in Inner Mongolia as there are in Outer Mongolia!

[Boston Bread]

If China was a democracy would the left-right divide look like this map or is this more for the ideology of the political elite?

edit: after reading it looks like they did a survey which is good but mostly male university students are going to still lean elitist.

[jaichind]

One also wonders who the leftists are in Xinjiang. They can't possibly be the locals.

Han make up more than 40% of the population of Xinjiang and there has been a significant Han presence in the province since it was conquered by the Qing in the 18th century.  Uyghurs make up less than 50% of the population, and it's not as if all or even most of them are Islamists or nationalists.

Also, re: Inner Mongolia, it has by some accounts the fastest growing economy in China and has lots of natural resources.  The population has grown significantly as many people from the Beijing area and elsewhere move to the province.  There is also a lot of wealth disparity, as you guessed, between the Han majority (about 80% of the population) and the Mongol minority (around 17% of the population) though the Mongols are much better integrated than the Uyghurs are.  One mindscrew statistic is that, despite making up such a minority, there are actually twice as many Mongols in Inner Mongolia as there are in Outer Mongolia!

We think very much alike ! At least on this certain slice of issues.    I do have a couple of comments.

1) This survey was done in the Chinese written language, so while a good portion of the more Han-ized Uyghurs most likely did participate in this survey the non-assimilated Uyghurs for sure did not.  This will most likely explain the "Left" lean of Xinjiang.  

2) I, independently from you, have been making for decades the point from time to time that there are twice as many ethnic Mongolians in Inner Mongolia than Outer Mongolia even as ethnic Mongols are a small fraction of the Inner Mongolia population.   Of course this has to do with the fact that Han population dense and urbanized Hohhot used to be part of Shanxi during the Ching dynasty and Inner Mongolia was truly all grasslands.  Same for Chifeng which is a large population center for Hans which was part of Hebei back during the Ching Dynasty.  For me Hohhot is an bogus name anyway that the PRC regime imposed when the correct name is Kweisui or 歸綏.  I get all this fake universalism and multiculturalism the CCP want to push but to name a city with where the Han population  is well over 80% with a Mongolian name just makes no sense.   The CCP have a slightly better case for their, still bogus in my mind, renaming of Dihua (迪化) to Ürümqi given at the time they renamed it the Uyghurs population was somewhat higher than the Mongol population in Kweisui but in both case these minorities were, in fact, well, minorities with Hans forming the majority population for generations already.

3) Of course as a revanchist Chinese nationalist I always rejected the separation of Outer Mongolia from China anyway, which is in theory still the position of the ROC.  And that there are twice as many ethnic Mongolians in Inner Mongolia than Outer Mongolia adds to that narratives.  Of course a decade ago the ROC passed some laws that pretty much accepts Outer Mongolia as separate entity while still insisting on ROC sovereignty. Traitors !!  Of course PRC are even greater traitors in agreeing to Outer Mongolia independence.  To Mao's credit he did try to get Stalin to give Outer Mongolia back in 1949 but it did not work.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Based on the standards they used I'd be at most centrist, possibly right wing. Weird.

[RFayette]

Based on the standards they used I'd be at most centrist, possibly right wing. Weird.

It also would make a Trump-like figure more on the left than most liberals in the USA, so it's definitely a different way of looking at things.    Also, the explanations of "left" and "right" seem to fit in well with d12321's ideology. 


I do have a few questions though:  can someone explain why parts of inland China (in the central region) are centrist whereas others are more leftist?  What is the cause of that distinction?  Also, if data were available for the Tibetan region, how would that area stack up?

[Crumpets]

This is really interesting. Although the wealth->right wing correlation makes sense, it's interesting how the population density doesn't seem to have much of a correlation with politics, which is pretty much a constant everywhere else:

[Intell]

I very much like the Chinese Left.

[jaichind]

I always used another proxy to measure Right-Left in the Chinese context although it is mostly applicable to a Chinese regime.  This is

"What is your position on the Taiping Rebellion/regime?"

I consider a Chinese regime Left of they answered in the positive and Right if their position is in the negative.  

The Taiping rebellion which espoused a combination radical anti-traditionalist egalitarian principles of 1850-1864 was a mortal threat to the ruling Ching dynasty and ultimately was defeated as it did not live up to its principles and the Ching dynasty was able to rally behind Han Chinese traditionalism to defeat the Taiping.  This is ironic as the apex elite of the Ching were mostly Manchurians, Han-ized Manchurans for sure but Manchurians.  

The post-Taiping Ching which obviously was negative on the Taiping was for sure Right and oscillated  between Right conservatism and Burk style Right gradual reformism.  The revolutionary KMT which sought to overthrow the Ching saw itself as the successor movement of the Taiping for sure had positive views of the Taipings.  The Ching was replaced by the centrist BeiYang in 1912 which had neutral views on the Taipings while the radical revolutionary KMT opposition continued to hold pro-Taiping views, let along the even more radical CCP.  When the KMT overthrew the Beiyang in 1928 it continued to hold pro-Taiping views but that quickly changed by the early 1930s as the KMT shifted Right as it combated the revolutionary CCP and became critical of the Taipings.  In 1949 the CCP took over on Mainland China defeating the KMT regime and continued to hold positive views of the Taipings, especially in the Maoist era of the Cultural Revolution.  But as the Maoist era came to a close, the CCP views on the Taipings become more ambivalent in the 1980s as it became to shift away from the Left.  By the 1990s the CCP became fairly critical of the Taipings as it continued its transformation toward a Righist force.  This trend continued in 2000s and 2010s although the opposition New Left steam of the  CCP are challenging the new anti-Taiping consensus by taking a more positive assessment of the Taiping legacy.

For me, I pretty much rate the Taiping regime almost as badly as the Maoist CCP regime.  My support for different Chinese regimes most matches their shift on their Taiping assessment.  I backed the Ching and Beiyang against the KMT until the 1920s.  As the KMT shifted Right in policy and their assessment of the Taiping in the early 1930s I also shifted to back KMT.  I started to back the CCP in the early 1990s just around the same time they start to become more critical of the Taiping regime.