Cook releases 2016 PVI data

[RaphaelDLG]

Can someone post a real, preferably sortable, 2016 chart please?

[Strudelcutie4427]

I've Calculated what the new PVI will likely be

AL- R+14
AK- R+9
AZ- R+4
AR- R+15
CA- D+12
CO- D+1
CT- D+6
DE- D+6
FL- R+2
GA- R+5
HI- D+18
ID- R+19
IL- D+7
IN- R+9
IA- R+3
KS- R+12
KY- R+15
LA- R+10
ME- D+3
MD- D+12
MA- D+12
MI- D+1
MN- D+1
MS- R+9
MO- R+9
MT- R+10
NE- R+14
NV- D+1
NH- Even
NJ- D+7
NM- D+3
NY- D+11
NC- R+3
ND- R+16
OH- R+3
OK- R+20
OR- D+5
PA- Even
RI- D+9
SC- R+8
SD- R+14
TN- R+14
TX- R+8
UT- R+20
VT- D+16
VA- D+1
WA- D+7
WV- R+18
WI- Even
WY- R+25

[Figueira]

I actually calculated the PVI for each state, using Atlas data and the Cook method. States with the same PVI are listed in order of their exact PVI with decimals, from most Democratic to most Republican. The tipping point state here is PA.

There are a few one-point differences between my list and Singletxguyforfun's list. Not sure what happened there.

D+43: DC
D+18: HI
D+15: VT
D+12: CA, MD, MA
D+11: NY
D+10: RI
D+7: IL, WA, NJ
D+6: CT, DE
D+5: OR
D+3: NM, ME
D+1: CO, VA, MN, NV, MI
EVEN: WI, NH, PA
R+2: FL
R+3: IA, OH, NC
R+5: AZ, GA
R+8: TX, SC
R+9: MO, MS, IN, AK
R+11: MT, LA
R+13: KS
R+14: TN, NE, SD, AL
R+15: AR, KY
R+17: ND
R+19: ID, WV
R+20: OK, UT
R+25: WY

EDIT: Just rechecked this with the data currently available on Atlas and, despite some extra votes in NY, MN, and one extra Trump vote in NM (lol) which obviously change the totals slightly, the PVIs are unchanged.

[RaphaelDLG]

Thanks guys

ETA:  Also, the new PVI map is hella favorable to Republicans - if you consider everything <+3 to be a swing state, the R candidate only needs Florida and Pennsylvania to win the EC.

[Figueira]

Also FWIW WI is slightly D while NH and PA are slightly R.

[Strudelcutie4427]

NH is slightly R.

Ugh, disgusting. But I think 2016 was an outlier, if anything. Still, that's pretty embarrassing for Ds.

Thanks for doing this.

I'm tellin ya it's slowly coming back. It was D+2 in 08 and now it's even. Almost all the trend is to the right with the rural shift and the south east being flooded with republican refugees from Mass. Just look at how Salem has gone from even in 2000 to 60% trump to realize the effect of people leaving mass

[RaphaelDLG]

NH is slightly R.

Ugh, disgusting. But I think 2016 was an outlier, if anything. Still, that's pretty embarrassing for Ds.

Thanks for doing this.

I'm tellin ya it's slowly coming back. It was D+2 in 08 and now it's even. Almost all the trend is to the right with the rural shift and the south east being flooded with republican refugees from Mass. Just look at how Salem has gone from even in 2000 to 60% trump to realize the effect of people leaving mass

Bottom line is that there are too many white people living in New Hampshire for it not to be at least somewhat competitive.

[Figueira]

NH is slightly R.

Ugh, disgusting. But I think 2016 was an outlier, if anything. Still, that's pretty embarrassing for Ds.

Thanks for doing this.

I'm tellin ya it's slowly coming back. It was D+2 in 08 and now it's even. Almost all the trend is to the right with the rural shift and the south east being flooded with republican refugees from Mass. Just look at how Salem has gone from even in 2000 to 60% trump to realize the effect of people leaving mass

Bottom line is that there are too many white people living in New Hampshire for it not to be at least somewhat competitive.

I don't think this is true; Vermont is probably even whiter than New Hampshire and it's not competitive. The issue is that New Hampshire is never going to be a reverse Arkansas or anything like that, because there are still a fair amount of people in New Hampshire who actually prefer Republican policies, not "I'm voting Republican because my daddy was a Republican."

That said I agree with 2016 being an outlier to some extent due to the depressed Sanders voters.

[RaphaelDLG]

NH is slightly R.

Ugh, disgusting. But I think 2016 was an outlier, if anything. Still, that's pretty embarrassing for Ds.

Thanks for doing this.

I'm tellin ya it's slowly coming back. It was D+2 in 08 and now it's even. Almost all the trend is to the right with the rural shift and the south east being flooded with republican refugees from Mass. Just look at how Salem has gone from even in 2000 to 60% trump to realize the effect of people leaving mass

Bottom line is that there are too many white people living in New Hampshire for it not to be at least somewhat competitive.

I don't think this is true; Vermont is probably even whiter than New Hampshire and it's not competitive. The issue is that New Hampshire is never going to be a reverse Arkansas or anything like that, because there are still a fair amount of people in New Hampshire who actually prefer Republican policies, not "I'm voting Republican because my daddy was a Republican."

That said I agree with 2016 being an outlier to some extent due to the depressed Sanders voters.

Vermont is just f**king weird, dude.  It's the only safe D state that's both A) overwhelmingly white and B) overwhelmingly rural.  I'd say it's more of an exception to the rule.

[Figueira]

NH is slightly R.

Ugh, disgusting. But I think 2016 was an outlier, if anything. Still, that's pretty embarrassing for Ds.

Thanks for doing this.

I'm tellin ya it's slowly coming back. It was D+2 in 08 and now it's even. Almost all the trend is to the right with the rural shift and the south east being flooded with republican refugees from Mass. Just look at how Salem has gone from even in 2000 to 60% trump to realize the effect of people leaving mass

Bottom line is that there are too many white people living in New Hampshire for it not to be at least somewhat competitive.

I don't think this is true; Vermont is probably even whiter than New Hampshire and it's not competitive. The issue is that New Hampshire is never going to be a reverse Arkansas or anything like that, because there are still a fair amount of people in New Hampshire who actually prefer Republican policies, not "I'm voting Republican because my daddy was a Republican."

That said I agree with 2016 being an outlier to some extent due to the depressed Sanders voters.

Vermont is just f**king weird, dude.  It's the only safe D state that's both A) overwhelmingly white and B) overwhelmingly rural.  I'd say it's more of an exception to the rule.

Yes, but New Hampshire is right next to Vermont and a lot of it is culturally similar, so it would make sense on the surface for New Hampshire to vote Democratic.

[Thomas Jackson]

How many times do Democrats have to win Virginia easily before it stops being referred to as a swing state that's more R than WI/PA/MI/f'ing OH.

Because by definition these are swing states. Whether you like it or not:

D+3: NM, ME
D+1: CO, VA, MN, NV, MI
EVEN: WI, NH, PA
R+2: FL
R+3: IA, OH, NC

[Strudelcutie4427]

NH is slightly R.

Ugh, disgusting. But I think 2016 was an outlier, if anything. Still, that's pretty embarrassing for Ds.

Thanks for doing this.

I'm tellin ya it's slowly coming back. It was D+2 in 08 and now it's even. Almost all the trend is to the right with the rural shift and the south east being flooded with republican refugees from Mass. Just look at how Salem has gone from even in 2000 to 60% trump to realize the effect of people leaving mass

Bottom line is that there are too many white people living in New Hampshire for it not to be at least somewhat competitive.

I don't think this is true; Vermont is probably even whiter than New Hampshire and it's not competitive. The issue is that New Hampshire is never going to be a reverse Arkansas or anything like that, because there are still a fair amount of people in New Hampshire who actually prefer Republican policies, not "I'm voting Republican because my daddy was a Republican."

That said I agree with 2016 being an outlier to some extent due to the depressed Sanders voters.

Vermont is just f**king weird, dude.  It's the only safe D state that's both A) overwhelmingly white and B) overwhelmingly rural.  I'd say it's more of an exception to the rule.

Yes, but New Hampshire is right next to Vermont and a lot of it is culturally similar, so it would make sense on the surface for New Hampshire to vote Democratic.

The only real extreme liberal parts of the state are Portsmouth/Exeter/Dover, Concord, the college towns, and along the Vermont border.

[MT Treasurer]

Of course PVI can often be very misleading. NH and VA are solid Democratic states at the statewide and Senatorial level despite having an EVEN/D+1 PVI. Republicans have a much easier time winning ME than NH or VA, and ME has a D+3 PVI.

[Figueira]

NH is slightly R.

Ugh, disgusting. But I think 2016 was an outlier, if anything. Still, that's pretty embarrassing for Ds.

Thanks for doing this.

I'm tellin ya it's slowly coming back. It was D+2 in 08 and now it's even. Almost all the trend is to the right with the rural shift and the south east being flooded with republican refugees from Mass. Just look at how Salem has gone from even in 2000 to 60% trump to realize the effect of people leaving mass

Bottom line is that there are too many white people living in New Hampshire for it not to be at least somewhat competitive.

I don't think this is true; Vermont is probably even whiter than New Hampshire and it's not competitive. The issue is that New Hampshire is never going to be a reverse Arkansas or anything like that, because there are still a fair amount of people in New Hampshire who actually prefer Republican policies, not "I'm voting Republican because my daddy was a Republican."

That said I agree with 2016 being an outlier to some extent due to the depressed Sanders voters.

Vermont is just f**king weird, dude.  It's the only safe D state that's both A) overwhelmingly white and B) overwhelmingly rural.  I'd say it's more of an exception to the rule.

Yes, but New Hampshire is right next to Vermont and a lot of it is culturally similar, so it would make sense on the surface for New Hampshire to vote Democratic.

The only real extreme liberal parts of the state are Portsmouth/Exeter/Dover, Concord, the college towns, and along the Vermont border.

And Manchester and Nashua. And altogether that's like half the state.

[bagelman]

NH is slightly R.

Ugh, disgusting. But I think 2016 was an outlier, if anything. Still, that's pretty embarrassing for Ds.

Thanks for doing this.

I'm tellin ya it's slowly coming back. It was D+2 in 08 and now it's even. Almost all the trend is to the right with the rural shift and the south east being flooded with republican refugees from Mass. Just look at how Salem has gone from even in 2000 to 60% trump to realize the effect of people leaving mass

Bottom line is that there are too many white people living in New Hampshire for it not to be at least somewhat competitive.

thank you HR department after diversity training style modern democratic party

[publicunofficial]

NH is slightly R.

Ugh, disgusting. But I think 2016 was an outlier, if anything. Still, that's pretty embarrassing for Ds.

Thanks for doing this.

I'm tellin ya it's slowly coming back. It was D+2 in 08 and now it's even. Almost all the trend is to the right with the rural shift and the south east being flooded with republican refugees from Mass. Just look at how Salem has gone from even in 2000 to 60% trump to realize the effect of people leaving mass

Bottom line is that there are too many white people living in New Hampshire for it not to be at least somewhat competitive.

thank you HR department after diversity training style modern democratic party

Yeah you're right, if we treated minorities like sh*t we could have so many more people in office.

[Strudelcutie4427]

NH is slightly R.

Ugh, disgusting. But I think 2016 was an outlier, if anything. Still, that's pretty embarrassing for Ds.

Thanks for doing this.

I'm tellin ya it's slowly coming back. It was D+2 in 08 and now it's even. Almost all the trend is to the right with the rural shift and the south east being flooded with republican refugees from Mass. Just look at how Salem has gone from even in 2000 to 60% trump to realize the effect of people leaving mass

Bottom line is that there are too many white people living in New Hampshire for it not to be at least somewhat competitive.

I don't think this is true; Vermont is probably even whiter than New Hampshire and it's not competitive. The issue is that New Hampshire is never going to be a reverse Arkansas or anything like that, because there are still a fair amount of people in New Hampshire who actually prefer Republican policies, not "I'm voting Republican because my daddy was a Republican."

That said I agree with 2016 being an outlier to some extent due to the depressed Sanders voters.

Vermont is just f**king weird, dude.  It's the only safe D state that's both A) overwhelmingly white and B) overwhelmingly rural.  I'd say it's more of an exception to the rule.

Yes, but New Hampshire is right next to Vermont and a lot of it is culturally similar, so it would make sense on the surface for New Hampshire to vote Democratic.

The only real extreme liberal parts of the state are Portsmouth/Exeter/Dover, Concord, the college towns, and along the Vermont border.

And Manchester and Nashua. And altogether that's like half the state.

Manchester and Nashua actually aren't all that liberal. PVI- wise, Manch is like D+2 and Nashua is D+4. Other large towns are extremely Republican like Salem, Merrimack, Derry, Bedford, Londonderry, and Hudson