What are the Clinton-Trump Battleground states?

[Wisconsin+17]

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Hahaha, blaming the problems on Republicans? That's rich.

[Virginiá]

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Hahaha, blaming the problems on Republicans? That's rich.

Is that all you have? Whose fault do you think it is? Do you even know what is going on in Flint, or did you just see "Democrat blames Republican for something" and automatically assume I'm full of sh**t?

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Around this point, I'd say:

265-191-82
With no tossups:

314-224

[Kingpoleon]

Va, CO, NV, Iowa and NH.

As you said, though:

I think Trump would win a state like Nevada as well as CO, two states that liked Perot just as much.

So, CO and NV will probably trend R.

[RaphaelDLG]

Why do people think Michigan is a tossup but Wisconsin leans D? No way MI flips before WI! (Especially considering Flint)

Flint helps Trump. He is an outsider.

Higher African American turnout in Michigan due to a white Republican governor poisoning their families is not going to help Trump.

If Flint's problems continue to be painted as a Republican governance problem (I'm sure Hillary will also continue to work this angle), it will hurt his prospects in that state.

Virginia, there is no way you can connect Trump with a Republican governor or Republican governance. As I said, he is an outsider.

Clinton, on the other hand, is a Washington insider and part of the Establishment.

It doesn't really matter. People also blame the president for numerous things that aren't their fault, and take it out on the party in general. That is why it is so hard for the party that controls the White House to make any notable gains whatsoever during their midterms. Likewise, many residents of Michigan aren't going to be as receptive to Republicans while this water crisis still unloads fallout on them. Republicans have controlled the Michigan state government for decades, save for 2007-2011 when they only controlled the State Senate/AG/SoS. The whole issue is a clear picture of the failure of Republican governing principles in Michigan, and if you think most people are going to fully separate that from national party members, well, heh, that's wishful thinking.

Further, as with many other similar community disasters, turnout among Flint residents, and thus African Americans, will likely surge. Trump isn't going to be winning over African Americans, so the increased turnout will benefit Hillary. They like Hillary and clearly do not like Trump, at least according to favorability polls.

Finally, you're putting far too much faith in this outsider angle. The people want someone they can trust to handle the problem, and many feel like career politicians can't deliver on their promises. This would benefit Trump more if he wasn't such a lying, dimwitted asshole. Hillary is no saint by any measure, but if you think Trump is more trustworthy, especially given recent events, then you really need to have your head checked.

I think the bottom line is as she says the Flint situation is going to probably boost AA turnout in MI, and AAs are super inelastic, so it doesn't matter if the Republicans nominate an insider or an outsider for President, they will be hurt by that increased turnout. 

Regardless, I think MI is Fool's Gold for Repubs this election.  It's certainly not PA or even CO or WI.

[RINO Tom]

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Hahaha, blaming the problems on Republicans? That's rich.

Is that all you have? Whose fault do you think it is? Do you even know what is going on in Flint, or did you just see "Democrat blames Republican for something" and automatically assume I'm full of sh**t?

That doesn't stop Democrats from calling red states like WV or AR poor and ignoring that Democrats were in charge of those states for decades.

[Virginiá]

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Hahaha, blaming the problems on Republicans? That's rich.

Is that all you have? Whose fault do you think it is? Do you even know what is going on in Flint, or did you just see "Democrat blames Republican for something" and automatically assume I'm full of sh**t?

That doesn't stop Democrats from calling red states like WV or AR poor and ignoring that Democrats were in charge of those states for decades.

Come on, Tom. I didn't say anything about those states. Democrats surely did fail West Virginia and the Democratic party does not deserve their votes. You will get no argument from me on that... but Flint, Michigan is not West Virginia. Republicans, the local Flint Democratic mayor, and Obama administration EPA official(s) all deserve blame here. However, I won't hide the fact that I hold more accountable the Republican Governor and the legislature, for passing the emergency manager bill the voters effectively told the legislature they didn't want (via referendum).

I'm not some partisan hack who denies my party's culpability for numerous issues around the country. You didn't need to bring those unrelated state issues up.

[Wisconsin+17]

Michigan's been lead by Detroit which has had democrat governance for 40+ years. It's not gone Republican since Reagan.

[Gass3268]

Arizona
Georgia
North Carolina
Ohio

[beaver2.0]

217 EVs up for grabs.

[Young Conservative]

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-13/battleground-state-registration-gives-democrats-early-edge

There have always been more Registered Democrats than Republicans. That's nothing new. Independents typically vote more Republican though to eliminate this advantage. The margin of independents is what Matters.