What if Utah was after May 3rd? (Indiana)

[ElectionsGuy]

Honestly an interesting scenario, I don't think Trump could carry Utah even as the presumptive nominee.

[sportydude]

Rafael knew that he was going to win Nebraska easily, and nevertheless he dropped out.

He would have won Utah easily in your scenario, too

[ElectionsGuy]

Rafael knew that he was going to win Nebraska easily, and nevertheless he dropped out.

He would have won Utah easily in your scenario, too

I wouldn't say it was a sure bet. He was collapsing in the weeks before Indiana and there was no polling data.

[IceSpear]

He would've stayed in. I think the only reason he dropped out was because the Nebraska internals were looking ugly and Indiana only would've exacerbated his collapse there, so he knew the jig was up and didn't want to embarrass himself further. I mean yeah, winning California comfortably and denying Trump a majority would've been a huge long shot, but things can change a lot in a month, so why not at least give it a try? Very few people expected Trump to win Indiana by such a huge margin in early April after all. He could've tried to manufacture some "momentum" and "this ain't over!" talking points if he really thought he'd win Nebraska.