The Political Tracker - 4th Constitution Special (CONSTITUTION PASSES THRESHOLD)

[Lumine]

Fourth Constitution Special:
Atlasia Decides, May 2016

Lumine: Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. This is former President Lumine, bringing you a special and limited version of The Political Tracker focused on coverage of the Fourth Constitution Referendum and the potential races that will no doubt arise in the coming days. While no Nyman Weekly, the Tracker will do its best to encourage greater media activity and keep the public informed with a reasonable amount of bias on my behalf. We're also doing interviews as we have done since 2014, so if someone is interested in this do let me know.

For those of you at home, we will see five voting booths open before long to accept or reject the Constitution that has passed the Constitutional Convention of 2015-2016 with, let us not forget, a unanimous vote, 18 delegates approving of the document. Thanks to the South Legislature approving the The Democratic Constitution Resolution a few weeks ago, all five regions will vote directly on this. Booths are already open in the Pacific, Midwest and Mideast as campaigns try or organize and a likely large number of PM's are flying around. Let's take a look at results:

[Lumine]

Fourth Constitution Referendum:

National Turnout: 6,61% (8 voters - Last Voter: Rpryor03)

Pacific Region:

AYE: 100% (4)
NAY 0% (0)

Midwest Region:

AYE: 100% (2)
NAY 0% (0)

Mideast Region:

AYE: 100% (2)
NAY 0% (0)

Lumine: Booths already open in the Midwest, Pacific and Mideast as explained before, and while turnout is still low at this early date results look encouraging for the passage of the Constitution. All 8 votes so far in favor, including Laborites, Federalists and CR's. We believe turnout should pick up soon by tonight or by tomorrow as the remaining booths are open and the PM barrage probably takes effect, but so far, we repeat, early results are encouraging for the new Constitution.

[Lumine]

Lumine: No developments in the voting booths, so let's take a preview of what's to come if the Fourth Constitution is indeed ratified. Article X deals with the process that awaits us, stating that the current government and the current legislation are to last until we have our House of Representatives and the Senate seated. Assuming the remaining booths will open soon, we should have a result on the Constitution by around May 20-22. And from there on:

Phase 1:

The President of Atlasia (that is, Griffin) appoints an Elections Officer entrusted with the administration of two different election. First, he needs to schedule an election for the House of Representatives no later than two weeks from an Aye vote on the Constitution, meaning a House election would realistically take place at the end of the first week of June. Second, the Elections Officer will be entrusted with electing one legislative committee for each region (that is, three committees).

House of Representatives Election, June 2016: As explained before, it's up two weeks after ratification of the Constitution, and we have nine seats up for a vote. This election will take place under single transferable vote (STV, the system we use for past Senate elections), with House seats having two-month terms. That means, of course, we're up for another House Election in August.

Legislative Committees Election, May or June 2016: Three different committees for each region, with one delegate per seven citizens. We can't make an accurate projection of delegates per region now, but under current census numbers (121), that makes for 17 delegates or so (5-6 per region).

Phase 2:

An immediate Presidential Election was abandoned as a concept after some debate in the Convention, meaning the next election should follow the schedule of our current constitution (that is, third week of June). As the House is seated following the election, our Legislative Committees need to organize elections for the Senate (two seats per region).

Presidential Election, June 2016: Should go under the old rules, probably from June 17 to June 19. Despite plenty of speculation for candidates and a lot of backroom moves, no candidate has formally announced his or her intention to run for office. Either way, President Griffin and Vice-President Duke would technically be leaving the White House on the last week of June or the first week of July.

Senate Election, June-July 2016 (?): This is harder to speculate on, as the Legislative Committees need to settle on a method to elect two senators per region. Assuming these elections take place on a uniform date, that's six seats up for election. Upon being elected these Senators are divided into first (elected on February, June, and October) and second class (April, August, and December). While not outright stated, it would be assumed the second class of Senators would only last two months in office, and then have to go for another election in August along with the second House Elections.

Phase 3:

Technically, at any point in late June and early July at the latest we should have the House and the Senate finally seated, and possibly the next Administration as well. In any case, as soon as both the House and Senate are seated, all legislation from the previous constitution is void, and so are the previous offices. It is assumed we would have then a fully functioning government.

Supreme Court Elections: As per Article V, we will have a Supreme Court of five members: Two of them will be nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate as Justices (a process we can realistically expect in, say, July or August). The other three are the Associate Justices, one per region, nominated by the Regional Governments and confirmed by President and Senate. That said, per the same Article, our current Supreme Court should be converted into the Associate Justices.

Regional Government Elections: Along with organizing the elections to the Senate, the Legislative Committees have the task of crafting regional constitutions for each region, with the clear duty of establishing permanent governments for each region. Not having the power to legislate on anything else, these Committees dissolve once, we assume, we have our formal Regional Governments in place. It's hard to tell how long will it take for these Committees to be elected and then organize elections for Senate, craft a Constitution and then organize elections for a Regional Government, so we can expect this process to be more lengthy.

Lumine: That, at least, is how we understand the process to be, although there could be mistakes in the explanation given (if so, do let me know). In the meantime, and as the process move forward, offices to be filled should be:

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For a grand total of 34, not counting cabinet and other posts to be filled (personally, I'd say the number will be of about 40). In contrast, today we have:

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For a grand total of 48, 5 of those offices currently vacant.

[Lumine]

One small correction: the ConCon rudely and selfishly cut the number of House seats down to 9 instead of 11.

Thank god! No offense, Griffin, but I don't think an 11 member house is sustainable.

[Lumine]

Fourth Constitution Referendum:

National Turnout: 14,87% (18 voters - Last Voter: Windjammer)

Pacific Region:

AYE: 100% (5)
NAY 0% (0)

Midwest Region:

AYE: 100% (3)
NAY 0% (0)

Mideast Region:

AYE: 100% (5)
NAY 0% (0)

Southern Region:

AYE: 100% (5)
NAY 0% (0)

Lumine: The South is now voting as well, leaving only the Northeast to open a booth. Turnout shoots up from 6% to about 14% at this early hour, and we remain cautiously optimistic towards the chances of the new Constitution, with all votes in support so far. Despite there being some concerns here and there in public debate, no public figure has issued a call to vote No so far, and while we won't make projections, we repeat, the Fourth Constitution Referendum is so far very much in favor of the Aye option.

[Lumine]

Breaking News:

Lumine: Ladies and gentlemen, we interrupt our transmission to bring some unexpected breaking news... Surprisingly, it seems the new Constitution has missed the state of Arizona from the list of the states comprising the regions, a fact that only now has been noted by a few citizens. More to follow on this.

[Lumine]

Well, it's really not that much of a problem as long as we keep people from registering in Arizona, I'm just surprised we all missed that detail despite reading the new Constitution several times (it never even ocurred to me to go through the list of states, for example).

[Lumine]

Just one quick note, The NE may not be able to vote for until next week if I remember reading Cinyc correctly, which if these results hold mean the NE won't get to vote on the matter at all. Perhaps they could in that interim appeared, but it wouldn't have any force and Cinyc would no longer be an elections administrator by that point.

I recall reading something about that, but I can't remember the post or the thread. What exactly happened with the Northeast?

[Lumine]

Fourth Constitution Referendum:

National Turnout: 19,00% (23 voters - Last Voter: Leinad)

Pacific Region:

AYE: 100% (5)
NAY 0% (0)

Midwest Region:

AYE: 100% (4)
NAY 0% (0)

Mideast Region:

AYE: 100% (6)
NAY 0% (0)

Southern Region:

AYE: 100% (8 )
NAY 0% (0)

Lumine: Turnout up to 19% now, but still low partly due to the Northeast not being able to vote for the time being (and if these results hold, it's possible they may not have to). The margin holds as well, still no votes against the New Constitution with 23 Aye votes in, making us in the studio confident that, barring an unexpected suprise, the Fourth Constitution is on the way to being ratified within five to six days.

[Lumine]

So I seem to remember insisting that the President be allowed to create whichever cabinet departments he/she wished and to appoint those people without legislative actions...well, I can create the positions, but I cannot appoint anyone to them...

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...until the Senate is elected, apparently. Or does the current Senate continue to exist in between the time this is ratified and the governments are fully seated?

Wouldn't the current Senate remain seated until the new Senate and House are fully in place?

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I would assume that to mean that until we have the House and the Senate you'd have the current Government (whether its the current administration or the one elected in June) and Senate in place.

[Lumine]

Breaking News:

OOC: My personal opinions on the matter aside, news from the GM are news and will be reported on.

Lumine: While there are no further developments on the voting for the Fourth Constitution, we have breaking news concerning the ongoing situation in Arizona. Unconfirmed reports state that following the recent controversy over a simple wording mistake in the constitution an extremist group seems to be preparing to use the chance to declare the existence of a supposed Republic of Arizona, including the appointment of a, so far, anonymous Interim President. Let us recap a bit pertaining the situation:

Arizona: Unexpected trouble in the West?

Lumine: Following the reveal of an odd mistake pertaining the Fourth Constitution excluding the state of Arizona from the list that forms the new regions, debate among constitutional experts and prominent politicians seemed to indicate that the mistake, while truly regrettable, was of an easy solution. Indeed, by the current provisions of the Constitution being voted on, it would have seemed that the logical and simple solution would have been to just include Arizona via an act of the new Senate, thus solving the matter.

Indeed, prominent Atlasians were fast in apologizing and taking charge and responsibility from the situation, with Pacific Governor Ted Bessell responsibly asking citizens to change their registration temporarily in order to avoid legal issues regarding residence and citizenship. Alas, public reaction seems to have overtaken such moves, not only due to the surprising and concerning action from radical (and we believe, fringe) groups in Arizona, but also to the rapid reaction from a group of loyalists that oppose the actions of the so called insurrectionist movement.

We hear indeed that messages may have been sent not only between both groups, but to Governor Bessell and President Griffin asking them to take immediate action. The Political Tracker would like to issue a call for calm, tranquility and order pertaining these developments in Arizona, hoping this crisis will be solved as fast as possible.

In the meantime, we'll continue to report as news continue to reach our studio.

[Lumine]

Do correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems the booth can't be opened because of the Northeast Constitution (at the version currently on the wiki). I never really knew about this, but Article VIII states "Amendments to the Federal Constitution shall be voted upon by the people of the Northeast in the same manner as Amendments to the Northeast Constitution."

And, Article VII regarding those constitutional referendums, states:

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So, I assume it is not possible for a booth to be opened until Friday 20 because or this? Either that or I missed something.

[Lumine]

Fourth Constitution Referendum:

National Turnout: 26,44% (32 voters - Last Voter: PiT)

Pacific Region:

AYE: 85.72% (6)
NAY 14.28% (1)

Midwest Region:

AYE: 100% (4)
NAY 0% (0)

Mideast Region:

AYE: 100% (8 )
NAY 0% (0)

Southern Region:

AYE: 91.67% (11)
NAY 8.33% (1)

Lumine: And there you have it, ladies and gentlemen, our first Nay votes have just come in, one in the Pacific, one in the South. Margins still favor the Fourth Constitution in overwhelming fashion, but we await the Northeast vote with interest and encourage once again all Atlasians to go to the polls and vote. Turnout remains low, and it is very important to see that number go up before too much time passes.

[Lumine]

Fourth Constitution Referendum:

National Turnout: 35,53% (43 voters - Last Voter: Altsomn Stmarken)

Northeast Region:

AYE: 100% (10)

Pacific Region: - CLOSED

AYE: 85.72% (6)
NAY 14.28% (1)

Midwest Region:

AYE: 100% (5)
NAY 0% (0)

Mideast Region: - CLOSED

AYE: 100% (9)
NAY 0% (0)

Southern Region:

AYE: 91.67% (11)
NAY 8.33% (1)

Lumine: After the tireless efforts of CJO Cinyc, the Northeast has been able to go to the polls, and with what enthusiasm! With the second largest amount of votes, the Northeast is giving the Fourth Constitution a resounding Yes, which makes a Yes triumph all but secure. As the polls close in the Mideast and the Pacific, let's look at our  projections:

FOURTH CONSTITUTION PASSES THE MIDEAST

FOURTH CONSTITUTION PASSES THE PACIFIC

Lumine: There you have it, folks! Two regions have approved the Fourth Constitution, we need two more to go! That said, turnout is still very low, with three regions remaining and the number still lower than 40%. So please, once again, we encourage outstanding voters to go the polls in the Midwest, South and Northeast, and make your voice heard. By the night of May 21st, we have 2 regions to 0 approving the new Constitution, with a national popular vote of 41 to 2.

[Lumine]

I haven't checked the residency or voting status of everyone, but one stuck out at me.  ascott's vote is likely invalid because he or she hasn't been a Northeast resident for 7 days, as required by law.  So it's only 10 Aye votes in the Northeast so far, assuming every other vote is valid.

Noted, mistake corrected!

[Lumine]

Lumine: Ladies and gentlemen, the polls have just closed in the South and the Midwest, so let's take a look at the final projections there:

FOURTH CONSTITUTION PASSES THE MIDWEST

FOURTH CONSTITUTION PASSES THE SOUTH

Lumine: Per Article X of the Fourth Constitution, that means:

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FOURTH CONSTITUTION PASSES THRESHOLD, APPROVED IN FOUR REGIONS

Lumine: This is not a drill, ladies and gentlemen, this is not a drill. With 4 Regions having approved of the Fourth Constitution (Midwest, Mideast, Pacific and South) the new constitution is ratified! We project the Fourth Constitution has been ratified! Truly a historic night for Atlasia, my friends, after months of a long struggle, it is time to move to implementation! With the Northeast vote still ongoing, we will continue to report on this as the night develops, so please stay on our signal.