Reuters junk poll: Clinton up 4, too many undecideds
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  Reuters junk poll: Clinton up 4, too many undecideds
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Author Topic: Reuters junk poll: Clinton up 4, too many undecideds  (Read 1219 times)
IceSpear
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« on: May 14, 2016, 09:50:13 PM »

Since we're now apparently taking Reuters seriously, I figured I'd post this. Smiley

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=15580

Clinton 41
Trump 37
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LLR
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« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2016, 09:53:11 PM »

22% undecided... damn
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Ronnie
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« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2016, 09:53:48 PM »

I'm beginning to wonder if Trump will ever lead nationally.  If Reuters won't show him leading, then who will?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: May 14, 2016, 09:54:19 PM »

I'm beginning to wonder if Trump will ever lead nationally.  If Reuters won't show him leading, then who will?

Rasmussen has him leading by 2.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #4 on: May 14, 2016, 09:56:47 PM »

I'm beginning to wonder if Trump will ever lead nationally.  If Reuters won't show him leading, then who will?

Rasmussen has him leading by 2.

Oh right, I forgot about Scotty.  Maybe I should put it this way: will a good pollster ever show him leading?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: May 14, 2016, 09:59:41 PM »

I'm beginning to wonder if Trump will ever lead nationally.  If Reuters won't show him leading, then who will?

Rasmussen has him leading by 2.

Oh right, I forgot about Scotty.  Maybe I should put it this way: will a good pollster ever show him leading?

The best bets for that would be after the RNC or directly after the media spams a Hillary faux scandal for weeks.
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jfern
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« Reply #6 on: May 14, 2016, 11:47:04 PM »

I'm beginning to wonder if Trump will ever lead nationally.  If Reuters won't show him leading, then who will?

Rasmussen has him leading by 2.

Oh right, I forgot about Scotty.  Maybe I should put it this way: will a good pollster ever show him leading?

Define good pollster.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2016, 12:04:47 AM »

I'm beginning to wonder if Trump will ever lead nationally.  If Reuters won't show him leading, then who will?

Rasmussen has him leading by 2.

Oh right, I forgot about Scotty.  Maybe I should put it this way: will a good pollster ever show him leading?

Define good pollster.

Hm, there aren't too many good ones left, are there?  Monmoth, Marist, and PPP are a few examples of good ones that come to mind.  I'm sure there are more, though.
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jfern
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« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2016, 12:17:17 AM »

I'm beginning to wonder if Trump will ever lead nationally.  If Reuters won't show him leading, then who will?

Rasmussen has him leading by 2.

Oh right, I forgot about Scotty.  Maybe I should put it this way: will a good pollster ever show him leading?

Define good pollster.

Hm, there aren't too many good ones left, are there?  Monmoth, Marist, and PPP are a few examples of good ones that come to mind.  I'm sure there are more, though.

Maris and Monmouth only have 1 poll each so far this year. PPP has 3. Not looking good with such rare pollsters.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: May 15, 2016, 12:46:59 AM »

I'm beginning to wonder if Trump will ever lead nationally.  If Reuters won't show him leading, then who will?

Rasmussen has him leading by 2.

Oh right, I forgot about Scotty.  Maybe I should put it this way: will a good pollster ever show him leading?

Define good pollster.

Hm, there aren't too many good ones left, are there?  Monmoth, Marist, and PPP are a few examples of good ones that come to mind.  I'm sure there are more, though.

This primary cycle has been brutal for polling in general. Even the good ones like Monmouth, Marist, Marquette, Selzer, etc. have had some yuge misses.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #10 on: May 15, 2016, 04:43:53 AM »

Well, a lot of undecided voters may be true since both candidates have poor favorability ratings in the whole electorate.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #11 on: May 15, 2016, 11:48:06 AM »

I don't think we should take national polls seriously until Sanders drops out
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RJEvans
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« Reply #12 on: May 15, 2016, 12:41:36 PM »

I'm beginning to wonder if Trump will ever lead nationally.  If Reuters won't show him leading, then who will?

Rasmussen has him leading by 2.

Oh right, I forgot about Scotty.  Maybe I should put it this way: will a good pollster ever show him leading?

The best bets for that would be after the RNC or directly after the media spams a Hillary faux scandal for weeks.

The media will pick apart the FBI report. Even if Hillary and her aides are exonerated the media will spin it using RNC talking points to attack her. It's like clockwork. The best chance for Trump to lead was last week and the RNC convention. If he can't get a lead after the convention then chances are he won't get one during the debates.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #13 on: May 15, 2016, 12:42:55 PM »

I don't think we should take national polls seriously until Sanders drops out

I don't think we should take them seriously until after the Olympics.
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dspNY
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« Reply #14 on: May 15, 2016, 01:49:16 PM »

I don't think we should take national polls seriously until Sanders drops out

I don't think we should take them seriously until after the Olympics.

Or at least until both conventions are settled and the full tickets are unveiled. We also need to see what happens when we get Clinton vs. Trump with no interference from Sanders (meaning Clinton unites the Dems as best she can)
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: May 15, 2016, 03:03:30 PM »

Well, a lot of undecided voters may be true since both candidates have poor favorability ratings in the whole electorate.

Fake undecideds maybe. Both parties are guaranteed 45% just for showing up.
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muon2
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« Reply #16 on: May 17, 2016, 07:33:22 AM »

Well, a lot of undecided voters may be true since both candidates have poor favorability ratings in the whole electorate.

Fake undecideds maybe. Both parties are guaranteed 45% just for showing up.

The breakdown in the poll is 14% neither/other, 6% don't know, 2% won't vote. That doesn't sound fake at this early stage with high unfavorables for both candidates.
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