DRA stuff

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here I will post stuff I do in Dave's redistricting app.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here is my effort a 5-0 Democratic Oregon. Blue voted for obama by about 40k votes in 2012, making it D+2 (estimation).
(Cross-posted from AAD)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Indiana Republican gerrymander (9 seats)
District 1 (gray): This seat includes the most Democratic parts of Northwestern Indiana. Pete Visclosky would have no problem with this district. 63.3% Obama, 35.8% McCain.
District 2 (slate blue): This district takes in areas as far south as Lafayette and as far east as Huntingdon, grabbing Republican rural areas along the way. South Bend, a vital source of Democratic votes, has been excised from the district. 47.5% Obama, 51.2% McCain.
District 3 (white): This seat moves to the left, gaining South Bend from the 2nd while losing a share of downtown Fort Wayne to the 4th. Despite the changes, it remains solidly Republican. 46% Obama, 53.2% McCain.
District 4 (purple): Included in this district is a heavily Democratic portion of Marion County, but this is drowned out by a smattering of solidly Republican rural counties in Central Indiana, with the college towns in Vigo and Tippecanoe counties conspicuously left out of the district. While this may be an Obama district, it remains solidly Republican downballot; this would not flip except in wave years. 50.3% Obama, 48.6% McCain.
District 5 (green): This is another Obama district, but would likely not be vulnerable except in a wave. Parts of heavily Democratic Indianapolis outvoted by solidly Republican areas. Despite the heavily minority-dominated downtown precincts in this district, it retains a Republican lean and a suburban character. 50% Obama, 49.2% McCain.
District 6 (teal): This seat moves north, and its center of gravity is now in Grant County. It gains an arm consisting of Howard, Miami, and Cass counties as well as part of Fort Wayne. The seat remains heavily Republican. 48.5% Obama, 50.5% McCain.
District 7 (blue): Andre Carson's seat is drastically redrawn, losing some heavily black areas in Marion County and gaining the heavily conservative suburban counties of Morgan, Johnson, and Shelby. The seat thus moves heavily to the right; the Obama 08 % drops by 21 points. Carson would be a distinct underdog in this district. 49.3% Obama, 49.6% McCain.
District 8 (red): The Bloody Eighth got a makeover, losing Vermillion, Parke, Clay, Owen, and Greene counties in Central Indiana and gaining Lawrence, Orange, Crawford, Harrison  counties in the South. It moves the left, thus becoming more vulnerable to flipping in a wave election; this is in fact just as Democratic as the version Brad Ellsworth won twice. 47.5% Obama, 51.3% McCain.
District 9 (gold): This seat closely resembles the 2003-2013 iteration of the district, save for it being a bit more to the north. It is a tad more Republican than the 8th, and might thus be easier to hold. 46.9% Obama, 51.9% McCain.
One thing I was happy about was how few county splits there is on this map. Only 4 counties are split (Marion, Allen, St. Joseph, LaPorte). The Marion split is inescapable given that the population of Marion county is bigger than the ideal district size, and splitting LaPorte is preferable compared to having the 1st go south, for CoI reasons. The St. Joseph and Allen county splits are hard to justify for being under anything other than partisan reasons.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

WA non-partisan map (10 seats)
District 1 (slate blue): 55% Obama, 43% McCain; 49.6% Murray, 50.4% Rossi.
District 2 (gray): 68.9% Obama, 29.5% McCain; 63.8% Murray, 36.2% Rossi.
District 3 (green): 51.9% Obama, 46.2% McCain; 45.4% Murray, 54.6% Rossi.
District 4 (white): 38.7% Obama, 59.4% McCain; 34.5% Murray, 65.5% Rossi.
District 5 (cyan): 46.2% Obama, 51.3% McCain; 41.7% Murray, 58.3% Rossi.
District 6 (blue): 52.9% Obama, 45% McCain; 48.5% Murray, 51.5% Rossi.
District 7 (yellow): 81.3% Obama, 17.1% McCain; 78.3% Murray, 21.7% Rossi.
District 8 (red): 58.4% Obama, 39.8% McCain; 52.7% Murray, 47.3% Rossi.
District 9 (teal): 61.2% Obama, 37.4% McCain; 53.2% Murray, 46.8% Rossi.
District 10 (purple): 56.4% Obama, 41.7% McCain; 52.1% Murray, 47.9% Rossi.
Differences between this map and the actual map:
WA-08 doesn't cross the Cascades; instead it moves east, gaining most of Tacoma. Reichert would face a more hostile district, one that is now D+5 and trending D.
WA-02 and WA-01 are reorganized. Instead of taking up many of the Islands in Puget Sound, WA-02 now moves south into King County, gaining northern Seattle; WA-01 picks up the Islands, and gains miles of coastline on the Puget Sound farther north as well. WA-02 is now D+16, and WA-01 only D+2.
WA-03 moves the west, losing Lewis, Pacific, and Wahkiakium counties, and notably gaining Yakima. The effect of the changes is to make the seat R+1.
WA-06 loses its share of Tacoma, and in by gaining turf in Southwestern Washington, becomes more rural and conservative. Its PVI is now EVEN, but it is more D downballot. Rep. Derek Kilmer would be safe still, since he has a perch on the Appropriations Committee and the areas added to the seat are mostly still historically Democratic.
WA-04 gains Chelan and Kittitas counties from the 8th, and loses Yakima. It moves two points to the left to become R+12, but Democrats would still have a snowball's chance of winning in this seat.
WA-05 remains almost entirely the same. Nothing to see here.
WA-09 pulls out of Tacoma and moves to NE King County, to the point Adam Smith might run in another district. It is no longer a majority-minority seat, and as such becomes more Republican. The Democratic lean is almost halved, shrinking from D+15 to D+8.
WA-10 moves to the east, now containing all of Thurston County and correspondingly loses areas in Pierce. Its partisan allegiance and PVI is largely unchanged.
The net result of the changes is not favorable to the WA GOP. You go from 5D-5R in PVIs to 5D-4R and 1 EVEN (that is more D downballot). The Washington Republican party better thank Sleazy Slade this map was not proposed and implemented. (half   )

[muon2]

Here is my effort a 5-0 Democratic Oregon. Blue voted for obama by about 40k votes in 2012, making it D+2 (estimation).
(Cross-posted from AAD)

A nearly even result in 2012 translates to R+2. Obama got 52% of the two-party vote in 2012. A district that was even in 2012 is two points more Pub than the nation as a whole, hence R+2.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How would Walden preform in my version of the 3rd?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here is my effort a 5-0 Democratic Oregon. Blue voted for obama by about 40k votes in 2012, making it D+2 (estimation).
(Cross-posted from AAD)

A nearly even result in 2012 translates to R+2. Obama got 52% of the two-party vote in 2012. A district that was even in 2012 is two points more Pub than the nation as a whole, hence R+2.

I got that number by taking Obama's margin in 2012 (216k votes) and dividing by 5. I get 43.2k for a district to match state's 2012 PVI (D+3). I decided to be conservative and say D+2 because the 40k figure was on the higher end of my estimated Obama margin in the district.
I'm not using the two-party vote measure here, hence the confusion.

[muon2]

Here is my effort a 5-0 Democratic Oregon. Blue voted for obama by about 40k votes in 2012, making it D+2 (estimation).
(Cross-posted from AAD)

A nearly even result in 2012 translates to R+2. Obama got 52% of the two-party vote in 2012. A district that was even in 2012 is two points more Pub than the nation as a whole, hence R+2.

I got that number by taking Obama's margin in 2012 (216k votes) and dividing by 5. I get 43.2k for a district to match state's 2012 PVI (D+3). I decided to be conservative and say D+2 because the 40k figure was on the higher end of my estimated Obama margin in the district.
I'm not using the two-party vote measure here, hence the confusion.

It isn't hard to use the two party vote share. Just take the Obama vote and divide it by the total that went to Obama+Romney. For example in OR '12, Obama got 54.24% and Romney got 42.15%. .5424/(.5424+.4215) = .5627 or 56.27%. Nationally in '12 Obama's fraction was .5101/(.5101+.4715) = .5197 or 51.97%. Third parties took a larger share of the vote in OR than in the US, so the effect is to raise Obama's numbers in OR compared to the US. The result would be a PVI of D+4 for the state in 2012.

Technically the PVI should be the average of 2008 and 2012. Even if you just use one cycle but use the actual two-party vote it will reduce confusion.

[Virginiá]

That Oregon map is evil!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That Oregon map is evil!

Well OR-3, much like RL MD-6, takes Republican rural areas and drowns them out with Democratic urban ones to create a D-leaning seat. Of course it's diabolically evil.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Non-partisan Louisiana map, no VRA
District 1 (purple): This district includes some deep red suburbs of Baton Rouge and New Orleans. No incumbent lives here, but Steve Scalise could move here if he wanted. Included in the seat is Amite, home of current Governor John Bel Edwards. 76.1% White, 17.8% Black; 26.4% Obama, 72% McCain; 33.6% Dem, 66.4% Rep.
District 2 (blue):  This compact district is home to Reps. Steve Scalise (R-Jefferson) and Cedric Richmond (D-New Orleans); Scalise would likely move to the 1st. It has all of Orleans Parish and most of Jefferson Parish. Though it is not specifically designed as such, it is a majority-minority district, and is quite Democratic, given the many white liberals within its boundaries. 47.5% White, 38.4% Black; 56.1% Obama, 42.4% McCain; 59.6% Dem, 40.4% Rep.
District 3 (green): This seat picks up the outskirts of the New Orleans metropolitan area but also is redrawn to take in nearly the entire Gulf coast. It loses a substantial portion of Central Louisiana and parts of the Texas border. It remains solidly Republican. Boustany would run here if he wasn't aiming for the Senate instead. 71.3% White, 21.4% Black; 32.8% Obama, 65.2% McCain; 41.3% Dem, 58.7% Rep.
District 4 (black): This seat loses Central Louisiana territory to the 6th, 5th, and 3rd, but gains Lake Charles. It becomes thus more a Texas-bordering district. This seat would be for John Fleming (R-Minden). 64.6% White, 29.4% Black; 56.1% Obama, 42.4% McCain; 44.7% Dem, 55.3% Rep.
District 5 (white): This seat loses much territory to the 1st and 3rd, and in turn takes some parishes from the 4th. It becomes less erose in shape, but it becomes a bit more Republican. Ralph Abraham (R-Mangham) would run here and very likely win. 63.9% White, 32.2% Black; 41.5% Obama, 58.5% McCain; 41.5% Dem, 58.5% Rep.
District 6 (red): This seat is the most black seat on the map, at nearly 40% black. It is in Central Louisiana; over half of its population comes from East Baton Rouge Parish. It voted for McCain by less than a point as well, and could be a tough hold for Garrett Graves (R-Baton Rouge) in some years. 55.1% White, 39% Black; 48.9% Obama, 49.8% McCain; 52% Dem, 48% Rep.

[muon2]

Your imgur images aren't working without copying the link to a separate tab. There's a problem with imgur on this site that was described here.

Also, it would help to not make one of the districts white, since that's the color of the neighboring states.

[Nyvin]

I thought an interesting project to do for fun would be to take the Census estimates for 2015 and then redistrict the states using those numbers, even though it can only be done by county.     For Oregon I tried to go a step further and give them 6 districts and redistrict it to how it can potentially look in 2022.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Your imgur images aren't working without copying the link to a separate tab. There's a problem with imgur on this site that was described here.

Also, it would help to not make one of the districts white, since that's the color of the neighboring states.

Noted.
I simply fill in all but one seat. It's a trick I have been using for quite a while.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I thought an interesting project to do for fun would be to take the Census estimates for 2015 and then redistrict the states using those numbers, even though it can only be done by county.     For Oregon I tried to go a step further and give them 6 districts and redistrict it to how it can potentially look in 2022.

Cool. Do you want to post it here?

[Nyvin]

What do you know,  I do still have this!



It is based on the 2015 census estimates (by county).   For the split counties I kinda had to make best estimates.    I think the map is just about as least changed as you can get.   DRA doesn't have partisan data for Oregon sadly.

It's pretty obvious seats 1,3, and 5 would all be safe Dem.   2 would stay safe GOP.    4 and 6 would probably be pretty competitive though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What do you know,  I do still have this!



It is based on the 2015 census estimates (by county).   For the split counties I kinda had to make best estimates.    I think the map is just about as least changed as you can get.   DRA doesn't have partisan data for Oregon sadly.

It's pretty obvious seats 1,3, and 5 would all be safe Dem.   2 would stay safe GOP.    4 and 6 would probably be pretty competitive though.

You know, let me see if I can do 6 D seats based on population estimates. I might be able to best you. Nice map, by the way.

[publicunofficial]

I like your Washington map. Seeing my home of WA-06 skirt to the right by picking up all of Lewis County is scary, but like you said Derek Kilmer would probably be safe in most years.

I love how 99% of Washington maps I've seen keep the 5th exactly the same. Truly a perfectly designed district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I like your Washington map. Seeing my home of WA-06 skirt to the right by picking up all of Lewis County is scary, but like you said Derek Kilmer would probably be safe in most years.

I love how 99% of Washington maps I've seen keep the 5th exactly the same. Truly a perfectly designed district.

Thanks.
As regards to WA-5, it is indeed perfectly designed.  I was actually disappointed that DRA wouldn't allow to perfectly replicate the current seat in every way, but I couldn't split voting districts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

District 1 (white): This seat loses a substantial chunk of Washington County as well as all of Yamhill County, but gains Tillamook County and northern parts of Portland. Suzanne Bonamici (D-Beaverton) would run here, since this seat has most of her current territory and her district number.
District 2 (blue): This district pulls out of Jackson County, but gains a large area of Downtown Portland. It would be much more competitive, but still likely Republican, ensuring that Greg Walden (R-Hood River) has a chance here.
District 3 (dark orange): This seat swings west, losing its share of Clackamas County, but gaining all of Yamhill and part of Washington counties. It would have over two-fifths of Portland however, much of it being very solidly Democratic. Under these lines it would remain the most Democratic district in the Beaver State, and a solid hold for the bowtie-donning Portlander Earl Blumenauer (D-Portland).
District 4 (green): Moving counterclockwise, this seat picks up all of Jackson County as well as a small part of Josephine County currently in the 2nd, while losing part of Lane County and all of Linn and Benton. It would swing Republican, but not nearly enough for the seat to forfeit its swing seat status. Peter DeFazio (D-Springfield) has been drawn out of the seat but would likely run here as it has the vast majority of his current district.
District 5 (purple): This seat has Democratic population centers of Salem and Corvallis as well as part of Eugene, but this is balanced out by the presence of the Republican-leaning counties of Polk and Linn. Kurt Schrader (D-Canby) could run either in this seat or the 6th. The seat that is open hinges on his decision.
District 6 (red): This seat is centered on fast-growing Washington County, and is home to Kurt Schrader. This seat is wide open, and would likely be somewhat Democratic-leaning on paper. It has the most red parts of the Marion County, but also has some moderate suburbs of Portland as well as all of Democratic-trending Washington County, which has almost 60% of the district's population. Kurt Schrader could run in either here or the 5th; if he ran in the latter seat, this would be an opportunity for a young, ambitious Washington County Democrat to run for Congress.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Non-partisan Mississippi map, no VRA
District 1 (white): This district loses its territory bordering the Mississippi river , and instead expands south. It becomes a bit more Democratic, but not enough to matter in terms of electoral outcomes. It remains very Republican and very white, and thus very safe for Trent Kelly (R-Tupelo). 66.7% White, 29.5% Black; 41.1% Obama, 57.9% McCain.
District 2 (blue): This seat dramatically changes, mostly pulling out of the Jackson area and instead encompassing all areas along the Mississippi river. It is technically a majority-minority district. Bennie Thompson (D-Jackson) is drawn out of the seat, but would surely move here. The reduction in the black VAP gives the seat a R+ PVI, but it could still likely elect a Democrat of Sanford Bishop mold. 49.7% White, 46.4% Black; 51.9% Obama, 47.4% McCain.
District 3 (green): Two incumbents live here, Bennie Thompson (D), and Gregg Harper (R), both of whom live in Jackson. The Jackson metropolitan area is largely united in this district. The seat shrinks in size, since it is picking up urban areas that were previously in the 3rd. This in practice would be a black influence district, since it is over 41% Black. Gregg Harper might have to moderate a bit to secure himself in this district. 54.7% White, 41.3% Black; 45.9% Obama, 53.4% McCain.
District 4 (purple): This seat doesn't change much. Stephen Palazzo (R-Gulfport) would be beyond safe in this Gulf Coast district. 72.4% White, 21.3% Black; 31.6% Obama, 67.4% McCain.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Alabama non-partisan map
District 1 (red): 78.2% White, 15.6% Black; 26.3% Obama, 73% McCain; 30.6% Dem, 69.4% Rep.
District 2 (gold): 62.1% White, 32.4% Black; 41.9% Obama, 57.5% McCain; 43.2% Dem, 56.8% Rep.
District 3 (teal): 82.8% White, 11.8% Black; 24.3% Obama, 74.8% McCain; 32.9% Dem, 67.1% Rep.
District 4 (white): 84.7% White, 8.7% Black; 27.3% Obama, 71.6% McCain; 40.6% Dem, 59.4% Rep.
District 5 (green): 76.1% White, 16.3% Black; 36.3% Obama, 62.6% McCain; 46.8% Dem, 53.8% Rep.
District 6 (blue): 55.4% White, 38.7% Black; 51.3% Obama, 48% McCain; 51.1% Dem, 48.9% Rep.
District 7 (purple): 46.2% White, 50.1% Black; 59.7% Obama, 39.9% McCain; 62% Dem, 38% Rep.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NC non-partisan map (13 seats), Take Two
District 1 (blue): 52.4% White, 41.1% Black; 56.5% Obama, 42.9% McCain; 59.8% Dem, 40.2% Rep.
District 2 (red): 61% White, 26.2% Black; 48% Obama, 51.3% McCain; 49.4% Dem, 50.6% Rep.
District 3 (green): 71.2% White, 20% Black; 42.7% Obama, 56.5% McCain; 45.8% Dem, 54.2% Rep.
District 4 (teal): 63.6% White, 22.5% Black; 63.1% Obama, 36% McCain; 60.6% Dem, 39.4% Rep.
District 5 (pink): 82.9% White, 9.4% Black; 33.9% Obama, 65% McCain; 35.7% Dem, 64.3% Rep.
District 6 (cyan): 58.6% White, 29.6% Black; 59.2% Obama, 40% McCain; 56.4% Dem, 43.6% Rep.
District 7 (dark magenta): 64.5% White, 20.2% Black; 47.6% Obama, 51.5% McCain; 51.3% Dem, 48.7% Rep.
District 8 (gray): 71.2% White, 17% Black; 42% Obama, 57.1% McCain; 42.1% Dem, 57.9% Rep.
District 9 (slate blue): 47.4% White, 34.4% Black; 67.2% Obama, 32.2% McCain; 61.8% Dem, 38.2% Rep.
District 10 (chartreuse): 79.6% White, 12% Black; 38% Obama, 61.2% McCain; 37.2% Dem, 62.8% Rep.
District 11 (white): 89.6% White, 3.1% Black; 46.5% Obama, 52% McCain; 47.2% Dem, 52.8% Rep.
District 12 (cornflower blue): 83.8% White, 9.4% Black; 36.9% Obama, 61.9% McCain; 39.8% Dem, 60.2% Rep.
District 13 (gold): 62.4% White, 21.6% Black; 59.4% Obama, 39.6% McCain; 55.5% Dem, 44.5% Rep.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Every county in GA is split, excluding three than in DRA are on voting district and thus cannot be.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

WI non-partisan map
District 1 (purple): 49.1% Obama, 49.6% McCain; 38.5% Dem, 61.5% Rep.
District 2 (red): 69.9% Obama, 28.6% McCain; 65.3% Dem, 34.7% Rep.
District 3 (gray): 58% Obama, 40.3% McCain; 47.5% Dem, 52.5% Rep.
District 4 (blue): 63.4% Obama, 35.2% McCain; 57.3% Dem, 42.7% Rep.
District 5 (green): 49.9% Obama, 49% McCain; 42.2% Dem, 57.8% Rep.
District 6 (gold): 50.4% Obama, 48% McCain; 39.1% Dem, 60.9% Rep.
District 7 (white): 55.2% Obama, 43% McCain; 45.2% Dem, 54.8% Rep.
District 8 (teal): 53.9% Obama, 44.6% McCain; 43.2% Dem, 56.8% Rep.
This would be a stable 4-3-1 most years. The 8th improves slightly for Democrats, as its Obama 08 % goes from 53.6% to 53.9%; the 7th seat moves .7% more conservative by the same metric.