How would the GOP deal with a TRUMP loss?
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  How would the GOP deal with a TRUMP loss?
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Poll
Question: Skip
#1
Claim TRUMP wasn't a true conservative and look for someone MORE right-wing in 2020
 
#2
Come to it's senses and fight for a Bush, Christie, Kasich type candidate in 2020
 
#3
No effect
 
#4
Other (discuss in comments)
 
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Total Voters: 84

Author Topic: How would the GOP deal with a TRUMP loss?  (Read 1735 times)
#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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« on: May 15, 2016, 08:35:24 PM »

What do you think the GOP will do in the case of a TRUMP loss to Clinton? If I know the GOP as it is now, the claim will be that TRUMP wasn't actually a conservative and had Cruz been nominated instead, there'd be a President Cruz instead of President Clinton
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Seneca
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« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2016, 08:51:46 PM »

The composition of the GOP has shifted to encompass TRUMP voters. IF he loses, they'll double down on Trumpism; hyper-nationalism, nativism, protectionism. Perhaps they'll conclude that the problem was his personality and look for someone a little more serious, say a retired Airforce commander.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2016, 08:51:46 PM »

It's very hard for me to imagine the base settling for a Bush-esque candidate who is open to comprehensive immigration reform when they just nominated someone who literally called Mexican illegal immigrants rapists and drug dealers.  So option 1 by default.
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Clark Kent
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« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2016, 08:53:11 PM »

But trump isn't a conservative, so Option 1 might actually be completely correct in this case.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #4 on: May 15, 2016, 09:17:13 PM »

Ideally, by having Trump drawn and quartered before dissolving their party.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2016, 09:24:59 PM »

lol Bush
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2016, 09:45:23 PM »

Obviously begin talking about 2020!
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heatcharger
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« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2016, 09:55:47 PM »

It really depends.
If Trump gets clobbered and loses by 7+, Republicans will say "Well the real conservatives didn't turn out for a NY liberal... let's nominate a true conservative" and the nationalist protectionist wing of the party will have to shut up for a while.

If it's really close and better than Romney somehow, then I think they to move closer to Trump because at that point Republicans will have to make up for their abysmal performance with minorities by running it up with working-class whites.

Either way though, the GOP has a real identity crisis on its hands.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2016, 09:56:03 PM »

How the GOP reacts would depend on the magnitude of Trump's loss.  

If Trump lost by a margin bigger than Mitt Romney, and especially if Clinton expanded the electoral map, it would give new life to the idea that Trump lost because he wasn't a "consistent conservative" and folks like Ted Cruz would have new life for 2020.  It would reset the GOP to where it was after the 2012 General Election with the exception of the issue of immigration.  The GOP would recognize a need to tone down the discussion on immigration, while continuing to oppose "comprehensive reform" that involves any sort of amnesty.  

If, on the other hand, Trump lost by a lesser margin than Romney, and, particularly, if he expanded the map to involve OH and PA, it would bring about a deeper reassessment on the issue of trade, immigration, and foreign policy.  There would be a large segment of the GOP that would be convinced that it was not Trump's issue positions, but his persona that cost him the election, and that the ISSUES Trump ran on were winning issues.  I'm saying this if the outcome were something like this one, where Trump wins some new rust-belt states but loses some Romney states where the Hispanic vote is a factor:



Trump - 270 EV
Clinton - 268  EV

In an event like this, Trump's persona would take the entire hit.  The GOP would be forced to recognize that Trump's issue positions define the party moreso than the Bush agenda, and moreso than "Constitutional Conservatism".  It would force Movement Conservatives to deal with the fact that they are a minority within the GOP, and it will end a lot of the labeling folks as "RINOs" that are well within the mainstream of the GOP.  Such an event will force the GOP to be the kind of "big tent" they claimed to be when they won Presidential elections.
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: May 15, 2016, 10:13:21 PM »

The GOP will only ever accept option 1 as a reason for losing.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #10 on: May 15, 2016, 10:14:59 PM »

The GOP will only ever accept option 1 as a reason for losing.

So what would they do if Alan Keyes won the nomination and then lost the GE?
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #11 on: May 15, 2016, 10:20:09 PM »

How many presidential elections will the GOP have to lose before they accept that they have a problem?
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: May 15, 2016, 10:25:48 PM »

The GOP will only ever accept option 1 as a reason for losing.

So what would they do if Alan Keyes won the nomination and then lost the GE?

They'd claim that Keyes was just a RINO, and that the Party needs to embrace true conservatism.
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Asian Nazi
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« Reply #13 on: May 15, 2016, 11:14:20 PM »

The party leadership will attempt to reform the system to prevent another Trump (and in fact is in the process of doing so right now).  But the GOP voters have said that they no longer care about winning, they want a candidate who speaks to them on an emotional level.  The white race will be determined nominate another champion of their cause in four years.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #14 on: May 15, 2016, 11:21:29 PM »

Feeds into the Cruz logic that they need a true conservative.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: May 16, 2016, 12:35:41 AM »

The GOP will only ever accept option 1 as a reason for losing.

This. People were saying Ken Cuccinelli lost for not being conservative enough.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: May 16, 2016, 12:39:25 AM »

Make the GOP safer for Establishment types (Chamber of Commerce types).
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Ronnie
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« Reply #17 on: May 16, 2016, 12:54:00 AM »

I really don't know what I would hate more about a Ben Sasse/Ted Cruz-esque "true conservative" beating Hillary in 2020: the fact that we would have to deal with a radically right wing congress and president for four years (and that we'd lose Hillary Cry), or that Glenn Beck/Mark Levin/Rush Limbaugh-types would feel eternally emboldened and vindicated.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #18 on: May 16, 2016, 12:55:18 AM »

How many presidential elections will the GOP have to lose before they accept that they have a problem?

Republicans are tone deaf. Every election they lose, we hear Option 1 all the time: "Republicans lost because our candidates weren't conservative enough so our voters didn't turn out!" How many more elections will the GOP have to lose before they maybe realize that these so-called voters who aren't turning out, maybe just don't exist or are voting for Democrats? That being said, I fully realize that Democrats do the same thing when explaining our losses in the 2010 and 2014 midterms. Democrats really need to educate our voters more about how turning out in all elections is just as important as turning out to vote in presidential elections. We shouldn't just cede the legislative branch to Republicans because our voters aren't turning out, and I reckon Republicans feel the same way about forfeiting the executive branch due to their problems with the Electoral College and winning statewide elections in the key battleground states.

That being said, I fully expect to hear more of the same from Republicans when Trump gets shellacked in November: "Trump wasn't a TRUE conservative; he was a New York City liberal masquerading as a right-wing populist." When Trump loses, I can see them kissing up to Lyin' Ted Cruz, the true far right-wing extremist ideologue, in hopes that he will run again in 2020.  
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #19 on: May 16, 2016, 03:47:48 AM »

*sigh*.

Republicans nominated McCain - weak candidate, got 52 percent of GOP primary voters, Romney - weak candidate, got 52 percent of GOP primary voters, and now Trump who will finish with less than half.

We keep being told that the problem is social conservatives, yet we've not won since Bush who was a social conservative.

Trump's going to get smoked. And the GOP will still blame social issues for their loss and argue that they need a liberal to beat a liberal.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #20 on: May 16, 2016, 03:52:38 AM »
« Edited: May 16, 2016, 03:56:58 AM by IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi »

As for that Map, if Trump loses AZ, he loses NC, and he won't win PA, VA, OH or FL.

That would take 90 percent Democrat Hispanic voters (about what the polls are saying he gets), and 55 percent turnout. A real possibility. It also turns GA and TX into tossup states.

That gets us to 358 - 180.

With college whites at 53 percent for Trump and 63 percent turnout, and a drop in the non college turnout to 46 percent, I get the map in my predictions.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #21 on: May 16, 2016, 04:16:32 AM »

The Republicans are in between a rock and a hard place.

If Donald Trump loses, the Republicans may introduce a super-delegate system to keep the more uncontrollable candidates under control.

But the voters in the primary wanted an outsider who was not controlled.

It might simply be the case that the majority of Americans would prefer to become more socialist in nature and share the wealth 'Bernie' style.

The popularity of Bernie and Trump has been astounding. They are probably not in the right political vehicle to be successful.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #22 on: May 16, 2016, 04:35:22 AM »

Quote
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Bernie, yes. Trump, no.
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PeteB
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« Reply #23 on: May 16, 2016, 01:11:05 PM »

The question is too broad - I will focus on what I think the GOP party will do when (not IF) Trump loses. This is different from the rank and file, some of whom may feel that Trump was an unrecognized Messiah and some of whom would just want a conservative to the right of Cruz.

Here is what will happen imho:

1. GOP introduces a SuperDelegate system to restrict the chances of another Trump or a Cruz-type candidate. State polls will become less winner take all and more proportional.

2. Some voters are alienated and start voting third party or don't vote but most are happy that the craziness is over.

3. Party platform acclaims the more popular non-xenophobic Trump points (securing borders, immigration controls, realignment of NATO role, etc)

4. End result - more mainstream candidates get a much better chance at winning!
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Blair
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« Reply #24 on: May 16, 2016, 02:33:25 PM »

Publishes a report saying they need to reach out to women, hispanics etc. Floats candidates like Haley, Tim Scott, Amash and then revert to an old white guy (Trump, Romney, Mccain)
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