Hypothetically, if Jeb! was the nominee, how would he have done with Hispanics?

[Deblano]

So, in real life, Jeb! got his ass kicked by Trump and Rubio.

However, if he was the GOP nominee, how would he do with hispanics in the general election? Would he do much better than Trump would?

[Kingpoleon]

35-40%.

The final map looks something like:

270: Clinton/Franken(48.8%)
268: Bush/Gardner(49.1%)
Others: 2.1%

[This account no longer in use.]

Amazing. All Hispanics love guaca bowles.

[Higgs]

He could've done very well. I'm guessing anywhere between 34 and 44%

[Maxwell]

He wouldn't have done well at all. He's a terrible candidate with no appeal.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I have my doubts. Notwithstanding the insanity of Donald Trump, ANY candidate the Republicans nominated would have been crucified as an extremist by the left. Plus, it's probably hard to improve by a huge amount among one demographic group in four years from a party's standpoint.

I will say 33%.

[beaver2.0]

Not well.  Maybe a few points over Romney, but overall, really not that well.

[ag]

He could have done very well. Depending on his campaign strategy, 35% to 45% would not be an impossibility (though on a somewhat lower turnout). He would, definitely, be viewed as a friendly face. He would have gotten an overwhelming majority of Cubans and others in Florida and would have done well in Texas and New Mexico. If he would choose to campaign in Spanish, he could have done serious progress among Mexicans even in places like California. Puerto Ricans and Dominicans in NY, etc., would still vote overwhelmingly Dem, but NY is not in play anyway.

[ag]

I have my doubts. Notwithstanding the insanity of Donald Trump, ANY candidate the Republicans nominated would have been crucified as an extremist by the left. Plus, it's probably hard to improve by a huge amount among one demographic group in four years from a party's standpoint.

I will say 33%.

33% is not a bad score for a Republican among the Hispanics, but I woud think this would be a floor, what he would get if he did not try at all. Any serious campaign effort would do miracles. Remember, blacks went from mostly voting for Eisenhower to giving a substantial majority to Kennedy in one electoral cycle. In fact, a lot of that was a matter of effort during the campaign: that phone call to Coretta King by itself was worth a lot of votes. If Jeb tried to be active in the Hispanic news cycle with serious initiatives on things like migration, he could do very well.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

25% to 35%.

[EliteLX]

I would imagine Jeb would of done best out of the entire field, he actually attempts to build a bond with the Hispanic community.

~ 30-35% range

[ProudModerate2]

Considerably more than trump.
No doubts.

[Santander]

I think 35-40% would not be at all unreasonable for Jeb. His wife is a first-generation Mexican immigrant, he speaks good Spanish and he's a true moderate on immigration. He even converted to Catholicism... Things like calling illegal immigration an "act of love" will sink you in a Republican primary, but in the general, it makes it a lot easier to bring in independents. He certainly would have done better than token Hispanics like Rubio and Cruz who basically look down on other Hispanics.

[ag]

I think 35-40% would not be at all unreasonable for Jeb. His wife is a first-generation Mexican immigrant, he speaks good Spanish and he's a true moderate on immigration. He even converted to Catholicism... Things like calling illegal immigration an "act of love" will sink you in a Republican primary, but in the general, it makes it a lot easier to bring in independents. He certainly would have done better than token Hispanics like Rubio and Cruz who basically look down on other Hispanics.

If he made an effort he could easily have gotten around 40% or more. He would have needed to campaign in Spanish, and make it clear that he considers immigration reform very important and is willing to act on it. If he did that, he could have gained around 45% of the vote. If he did not, but just sounded more sympathetic to Hispanics than Republicans have recently, than a couple of strategically given interviews in Spanish could have easily gained him around 30%-35%.

[Ronnie]

Ag, I think that if he had overtly come out in favor of comprehensive immigration reform, the base would be so disenchanted with him that any gains he might have made with Hispanics would be nullified by white nativist Republican voters staying home.

That said, if we are assuming he had won the nomination in the first place with that same base of voters, perhaps it wouldn't be such a huge problem.

[Frodo]

I think 35-40% would not be at all unreasonable for Jeb. His wife is a first-generation Mexican immigrant, he speaks good Spanish and he's a true moderate on immigration. He even converted to Catholicism... Things like calling illegal immigration an "act of love" will sink you in a Republican primary, but in the general, it makes it a lot easier to bring in independents. He certainly would have done better than token Hispanics like Rubio and Cruz who basically look down on other Hispanics.

If he made an effort he could easily have gotten around 40% or more. He would have needed to campaign in Spanish, and make it clear that he considers immigration reform very important and is willing to act on it. If he did that, he could have gained around 45% of the vote. If he did not, but just sounded more sympathetic to Hispanics than Republicans have recently, than a couple of strategically given interviews in Spanish could have easily gained him around 30%-35%.

a

God bless the Republican primary electorate for nominating Donald Trump then.  With the GOP doubling down on its white nationalist base, we're going to see just how many white voters Mitt Romney actually 'missed' in 2012.  

[ag]

Ag, I think that if he had overtly come out in favor of comprehensive immigration reform, the base would be so disenchanted with him that any gains he might have made with Hispanics would be nullified by white nativist Republican voters staying home.

That said, if we are assuming he had won the nomination in the first place with that same base of voters, perhaps it wouldn't be such a huge problem.

Dog whistling can go both ways. Especially, if there is a language barrier involved. There are things that could be said in Spanish in such a way that their translation into English would be a lot more ambiguous than the original. I somehow feel that Jeb Bush would have been capable of making his intentions clear on one side of the divide without being easily exposed on the other.