Republican OR primary results thread (polls “close” at 11pm ET)
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  Republican OR primary results thread (polls “close” at 11pm ET)
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Author Topic: Republican OR primary results thread (polls “close” at 11pm ET)  (Read 2043 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: May 17, 2016, 03:25:56 AM »

Oregon is vote by mail, but ballots are due to be received by 8pm PT, which is 11pm ET.

No exit polls this week.

CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/or/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/oregon


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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: May 17, 2016, 03:48:50 AM »

This thread probably isn't necessary. Tongue

I'm sure the 5 or so posts that want to discuss Trump's margin of victory will fit just fine among the Democratic conversation.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: May 17, 2016, 08:35:57 AM »

This thread probably isn't necessary. Tongue

I'm sure the 5 or so posts that want to discuss Trump's margin of victory will fit just fine among the Democratic conversation.

I second this. Can we please combine these?

Thirded.
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President of the civil service full of trans activists
Peebs
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« Reply #3 on: May 17, 2016, 08:51:46 AM »

This thread probably isn't necessary. Tongue

I'm sure the 5 or so posts that want to discuss Trump's margin of victory will fit just fine among the Democratic conversation.

I second this. Can we please combine these?

Thirded.
Fourthed, if only because it's a fake contest.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #4 on: May 17, 2016, 09:39:41 AM »

This thread probably isn't necessary. Tongue

I'm sure the 5 or so posts that want to discuss Trump's margin of victory will fit just fine among the Democratic conversation.

I second this. Can we please combine these?

Thirded.
Fourthed, if only because it's a fake contest.

Fifthed
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sportydude
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« Reply #5 on: May 17, 2016, 10:30:48 AM »

Is it correct that a Republican candidate needs 4% of the vote in order to receive a delegate?
If that's true, it's quite a funny figure...
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #6 on: May 17, 2016, 10:34:14 AM »

Is it correct that a Republican candidate needs 4% of the vote in order to receive a delegate?
If that's true, it's quite a funny figure...

It's something really low, like 3 or 4%. It'll be interesting to see how many candidates bag a delegate. Trump, Cruz, and Kasich for sure.
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sportydude
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« Reply #7 on: May 17, 2016, 10:45:25 AM »

Is it correct that a Republican candidate needs 4% of the vote in order to receive a delegate?
If that's true, it's quite a funny figure...

It's something really low, like 3 or 4%. It'll be interesting to see how many candidates bag a delegate. Trump, Cruz, and Kasich for sure.

Since there are only three candidates on the ballot, and since I doubt that TRUMP gets 96% of the vote, I'll guess that he, Rafael and Kasich all receive delegates.
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President of the civil service full of trans activists
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« Reply #8 on: May 17, 2016, 11:20:56 AM »

Is it correct that a Republican candidate needs 4% of the vote in order to receive a delegate?
If that's true, it's quite a funny figure...

It's something really low, like 3 or 4%. It'll be interesting to see how many candidates bag a delegate. Trump, Cruz, and Kasich for sure.

Since there are only three candidates on the ballot, and since I doubt that TRUMP gets 96% of the vote, I'll guess that he, Rafael and Kasich all receive delegates.
Trump would technically need 92% at the minimum if Crusich breaks the rest even, and 96% at most.
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« Reply #9 on: May 17, 2016, 12:23:17 PM »

This thread probably isn't necessary. Tongue

I'm sure the 5 or so posts that want to discuss Trump's margin of victory will fit just fine among the Democratic conversation.
I agree. Although, I don't really care that much, we may as all just ignore this thread anyway. Trump is headed for the nomination. Nothing will stop him now. He is more inevitable than Clinton who also appears to be the likely nominee, short of something highly unexpected.
The difference is that while Sanders could still win states (but not do well enough in them to catch up to Clinton), Trump will almost certainly win all the remaining states.
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Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook
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« Reply #10 on: May 17, 2016, 12:29:33 PM »

And the only other primary between today and June 7th is a Republican one, so that time we might as well not make a thread.
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tmcusa2
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« Reply #11 on: May 17, 2016, 12:34:05 PM »

I don't think Trump can get to 1237 before June 7, so these results are kind of pointless anyway.
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jman123
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« Reply #12 on: May 17, 2016, 01:00:24 PM »

what will be the margins tonight? How will kasich and cruz do even though they are out but still on ballot?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #13 on: May 17, 2016, 01:33:24 PM »

And the only other primary between today and June 7th is a Republican one, so that time we might as well not make a thread.

There's a Democratic beauty contest that night too though.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: May 17, 2016, 02:18:53 PM »

Delegate allocation preview: Oregon is a strictly proportional state. There's essentially no threshold, so TRUMP, Cruz, and Kasich will all get delegates. Rubio probably has an outside shot of getting 1 delegate. The below is estimates of how many delegates TRUMP will get based on his % of the vote. Note that these estimates may not be exact reflections of what will happen tonight - the final number of TRUMP delegates may vary slightly depending on rounding.

TRUMP % of vote - approximate number of delegates for TRUMP:

40% - 11
50% - 14
60% - 16
70% - 19
80% - 22

These estimates are based off the rules at http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/OR-R
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #15 on: May 17, 2016, 02:28:30 PM »

And the only other primary between today and June 7th is a Republican one, so that time we might as well not make a thread.

There's a Democratic beauty contest that night too though.

We could probably make do with 1 thread.
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cinyc
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« Reply #16 on: May 17, 2016, 10:03:10 PM »

Malheur County, Oregon:
1,204 Trump
259 Cruz
148 Kasich
20 Write-In
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #17 on: May 17, 2016, 10:05:10 PM »

First statewide #s:

Trump 61.0
Kasich 23.6
Cruz 15.5
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cinyc
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« Reply #18 on: May 17, 2016, 10:10:42 PM »

Trump gets the checkmark from the AP in Oregon, shocking no one.

It's currently Trump 64.2%, Kasich 18.9%, Cruz 16.8%.
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RI
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« Reply #19 on: May 17, 2016, 10:15:46 PM »

It's currently Trump 64.2%, Kasich 18.9%, Cruz 16.8%.

Not counting the write-ins, of course. With them, Trump is about at Nebraska levels.
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RI
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« Reply #20 on: May 17, 2016, 10:29:23 PM »

Really hope Kasich beats Cruz in Oregon (and WA).
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Axel Foley
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« Reply #21 on: May 17, 2016, 11:03:44 PM »
« Edited: May 17, 2016, 11:05:28 PM by Axel Foley »

Now the count is stalled at 66%, with TRUMP at 66.6 and Kasich with 43,666 votes.

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #22 on: May 17, 2016, 11:22:08 PM »

Kasich average 14% in the primaries held before he dropped out.  He's currently at 16% in Oregon.  Maybe he would have done better if he'd dropped out before Iowa?  Smiley
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Axel Foley
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« Reply #23 on: May 17, 2016, 11:26:06 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2016, 12:11:43 AM by Axel Foley »

Also, Kasich with at least 5-6 delegates from WV and OR in the last two weeks...he won 10( NY and RI) in the nearly two months between Ohio and Indiana contests.
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DemPGH
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« Reply #24 on: May 17, 2016, 11:30:26 PM »

It'd be sweet if Trump could hit 70 or get really close and win every county. That "teflon" analogy might have to be resurrected. Wink Teflon Don? lol.
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