Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET)

[Eraserhead]

It really makes you wonder how big the turnout would have been and by how much Sanders would have won by if this had been an open primary.

[Hnv1]

Gilliam County destroys the map. HC

[Eraserhead]

Gilliam County destroys the map. HC

Yeah, I keep checking to see if any more votes have come in there but no luck (at least not yet).

[IceSpear]

I bet DWS was involved in her nefarious plot to intercept these ballots and prevent a county sweep.

But really, isn't it odd that not a single late vote came in from Gilliam?

[NOVA Green]

I bet DWS was involved in her nefarious plot to intercept these ballots and prevent a county sweep.

But really, isn't it odd that not a single late vote came in from Gilliam?

Well ballots need to be received by the county election office by 8 PM PST, so no waiting for late vote-by-mails plus is a very small, older, wheat growing county where most residents probably send there ballots in two weeks ahead of time, so election night counting is usually pretty quick, and we don't see the slow pace that we got in the Metro areas.

[NOVA Green]

Now that SoS results are certified, here are the City level results for the Oregon Dem Primary  based upon precinct level data for the top (100) cities in the state in order of population:

1.) Portland- (40.1-59.9% Bernie)
2.) Eugene- (36.5-63.5% Bernie)
3.) Salem- (44.4-55.6% Bernie)
4.) Gresham- (45.1-54.9% Bernie)
5.) Hillsboro- (41.9-58.1% Bernie)
6.) Beaverton- (45.1-54.9% Bernie)
7.) Bend (43.0-57.0% Bernie)
8.) Medford (47.7-52.3% Bernie)
9.) Springfield (38.5-61.5% Bernie)
10.) Corvallis (36.5-63.5% Bernie)
11.) Albany---- Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
12.) Tigard- (47.7-52.3% Bernie)
13.) Lake Oswego- (57.5-42.5% Hillary)
14.) Keizer- (45.9-54.1% Bernie)
15.) Grants Pass (45.4-54.6% Bernie)
16.) McMinville (46.6-53.4% Bernie)
17.) Oregon City (43.1-56.9% Bernie)
18.) Redmond (43.2-56.8% Bernie)
19.) Tualatin (48.5-51.5% Bernie)
20.) West Linn (52.3-47.7% Hillary)
21.) Woodburn (51.8-48.2% Hillary)
22.) Newberg (40.3-59.7% Bernie)
23.) Roseburg (42.3-57.7% Bernie)
24.) Forest Grove (42.8-57.2% Bernie)
25.) Klamath Falls (40.5-59.5% Bernie)
26.) Milwaukie (39.5-60.5% Bernie)
27.) Ashland (37.9-62.1% Bernie)
28.) Wilsonville (49.3-50.7% Bernie)
29.) Sherwood (45.8-54.2% Bernie)
30.) Central Point (47.0-53.0% Bernie)
31.)  Hermistion--- Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
32.) Pendleton--- Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
33.) Coos Bay--- (44.6-55.4% Bernie)
34.) Troutdale (44.0-56.0% Bernie)
35.) Canby- (47.6-52.4% Bernie)
36.) Lebanon-  Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
37.) Dallas (48.9-51.1% Bernie)
38.) Happy Valley (51.1-48.9% Hillary)
39.) The Dalles (40.1-59.9% Bernie)
40.) La Grande (40.4-59.6% Bernie)
41.) St Helens (39.5-60.5% Bernie)
42.) Cornelius (37.1-62.9% Bernie)
43.) Gladstone (43.5-56.5% Bernie)
44.) Ontario---- Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
45.) Damascus (47.3-52.7% Bernie)
46.) Newport (45.7-54.3% Bernie)
47.) Baker City- Unknown. County precinct maps don't appear to match city boundaries
48.) North Bend (45.4-54.6% Bernie)
49.) Cottage Grove (39.5-60.5% Bernie)
50.) Sandy (39.9-60.1% Bernie)
51.) Monmouth (34.3-65.7% Bernie)
52.) Astoria (40.2-59.8% Bernie)
53.) Prineville---- Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
54.) Silverton (41.4-58.6% Bernie)
55.) Sweet Home---Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
56.) Fairview (50.7-49.3 Hillary)
57.) Independence (34.8-65.2% Bernie)
58.) Eagle Point (55.9-44.1% Hillary)
59.) Florence (51.8-48.2% Hillary)
60.) Molalla (41.9-58.1% Bernie)
61.) Lincoln City--- Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
62.) Sutherlin (50.7-49.3% Hillary)
63.) Stayton (43.7-56.3% Bernie)
64.) Hood River (36.7-63.3% Bernie)
65.) Milton-Freewater---Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
66.) Umatilla---Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
67.) Scappoose- (45.6-54.4% Bernie)
68.) Seaside (46.5-53.5% Bernie)
69.) Brookings (50.8-49,2% Hillary)
70.) Sheridan (43.1-56.9% Bernie)
71.) Talent (32.6-67.4% Bernie)
72.) Madras---- Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
73.) Junction City (42.3-57.7% Bernie)
74.) Winston (44.6-55.4% Bernie)
75.) Creswell (38.0-62.0% Bernie)
76.) Warrenton (47.0-53.0% Bernie)
77.) Tillamook---Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
78.) Philomath (35.4-64.6% Bernie)
79.) Veneta (37.1-62.9% Bernie)
80.) Phoenix (42.6-57.4% Bernie)
81.) Reedsport (49.1-50.9% Bernie)
82.) Wood Village (42.5-57.5% Bernie)
83.) Coquille (47.7-52.3% Bernie)
84.) LaFayette--- Unknown. Is city mixed in with rural areas?
85.) Aumsville- (38.8-61.2% Bernie)
86.) Harrisburg---Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
87.) Toledo (41.0-59.0% Bernie)
88.) Myrtle Creek (48.8-51.2% Bernie)
89.) Mount Angel (48.2-51.8% Bernie)
90.) Nyssa----Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
91.) Boardman (51.1-48.9% Hillary)
92.) Oakridge (47.5-52.5% Bernie)
93.) Hubbard (43.5-56.5% Bernie)
94.) Dundee (47.7-52.3% Bernie)
95.) King City (61.7-38.3% Hillary)
96.) Jefferson---Unknown (Need to pay $$$ to get precinct level results)
97.) Bandon (47.9-52.1% Bernie)
98.) Shady Cove (53.2-46.8% Hillary)
99.) Burns (47.9-52.1% Bernie)
100.) Jacksonville (55.9-44.1% Hillary).

[NOVA Green]

So although the raw data from the cities and precincts, reinforces what we already know from the '16 Dem Primary campaign and Oregon Dem Primary, where it was an obvious wide-based Bernie win, it also provides a further level of detail in the absence of any statewide exit polls.

Top Hillary city wins by %:

1.) King City  (Pop 3.1k)--- (61.7% Hillary). Washington County, Suburban Portland. Built as an age restricted community requiring a minimum age of 55+. (48% of the pop are 65+ and 62% Female). No families and only 2.4% of the pop below poverty line.

2.) Lake Oswego- (Pop 36.6k)--- (57.5% Hillary). Clackamas County, Suburban Portland. Built surrounding a private lake, and is one of the wealthiest cities in the state (2013- $86.8k/yr median household) and estimated 480k median house/condo value in 2013.

3.) Eagle Point (Pop 8.5k)--- (55.9% Hillary). Jackson County, Medford Exurb. This one is interesting because it defies some of the conventional wisdom regarding age/income/Ethnic demographics, especially when compared to other parts of the state region. It isn't especially old, not wealthy at all and overwhelmingly White/Anglo. This is a city where Romney beat Obama 2:1 in 2012, where there was a large timber mill back in the days, and voters have increasingly moved away from the Democratic Party since the 1990s. My only thought would be that this would be a classic Trump country and the remaining Democratic voters tend to be heavily older and Female, combined with some wealthier Cali retirees. However, my wife that used to live not to far down the road just mentioned that there is a large LDS population in Eagle Point, so thinking that Mormon Democrats might be wanting to back the policies of Obama/Reid/Hillary for a "safe and known bet" in the GE.

4.) Jacksonville (Pop 2.8k)--- (55.9% Hillary). Jackson County. Small Town/Rural. Small tourist historic town site of the Oregon Gold Rush. Median age 54.9 years old. City is 54% Female, and household income of those of working age is a bit above the statewide average.

5.) Shady Cove (Pop 2.9k)--- (53.2% Hillary). Jackson County. Small Town/ Very Rural. Median Age 51.8 Years and 26.7% 65+. It is a heavily Republican city in the county, not particularly wealthy at all, with some minor level tourism. Assuming a scenario where Democratic primary voters might skew much more heavily Female, while Trump dominated among the Male voters in the city?

6.) West Linn (Pop 25.1k)--- (52.3% Hillary).  Clackamas County. Portland Suburb. West Linn is one of the most expensive and wealthiest suburbs of Portland, with a median household income of >$100k, but also attracts a large "green" contingent because of the natural beauty of the areas, and isn't particularly old for wealthy Portland suburbs.

7.) Rogue River (Pop  2.1k)--- (51.8% Hillary). Jackson County. Rural. Again 30% of Pop 65+ and 54% Female. Beautiful place and retiree heavy as several of the other communities referenced above.

8.) Woodburn (Pop 24.1k)--- (51.8% Hillary). Marion County. ~60% Latino and major Eastern Orthodox population. Formerly a heavily farm-worker and food processing based economic sector, has become increaingly retail oriented with the Outlet Mall and part of Exurban Salem Metro, as well as a commuting population that can commute to the Southern suburbs of Portland.

9.) Florence (Pop 8.5k)--- (51.8% Hillary). Small tourist coastal town with a median age of 57 with 36% of the population 65+. Strongly Democratic town, as is most of Coastal Oregon, with mainly local retiree population.

10.) Boardman (Pop 3.2k)--- (51.1-48.9% Hillary). Umatilla County (Eastern Oregon) 62% Latino. Most Anglos vote Republican. It is a working-class town with significant employment in the food processing sector (Potatoes), as well as a Portland General Electric plant, and a major Port along the Columbia river. Heavily unionized workforce.

11.) Happy Valley (Pop 13.9k)---- (51.1% Hillary). Clackamas County. Extremely wealthy and overwhelmingly Anglo and fast-growing exurb of Portland, but generally more of a middle-aged with kids population.

12.) Brookings (Pop 6.3k)--- (50.8% Hillary). Curry County in SW Oregon. Generally becoming a heavily retiree community (24% 65+) but more local retirees than wealthy California retirees. Still had a working mill in the middle of town last time I passed through in 2012 and still a working-class union manufacturing component to the town.

There are three other cities that it appears Hillary won in Oregon (Fairview, Sublimity, and Sutherlin) although I suspect she might have won a few more cities in Umatilla, Linn, or Malheur, where we don't have precinct level results that don't cost money to obtain.

[NOVA Green]

Gilliam County destroys the map. HC

It does destroy the map, but now that we have official results, including the (2) write-in votes for Bernie and (0) for Hillary technically, although not officially, Bernie actually "won" the county by one vote.

[NOVA Green]

okay, another data dump. This time Bernie's best cities in Oregon.

Note: Again, this is not a Hillary/Bernie rehash of the primary season that is now over, but simply providing real data that took hours of time to pull and sort from precinct level results by county websites and precinct maps to understand how voters actually voted throughout the state.

1.) Talent--- (Pop 6.1k). (67.4% Bernie) Jackson County between Medford and Ashland. Extremely poor and working-class community that has one of the largest Latino populations in the county (Talent= 15% Latino). 16.3% of the pop is 65+. This totally surprised me as Bernie's best city in Oregon. It's been 7-9 years since I last rolled through town, but my recollection is a large chunk of the population lives in smaller sized mobile home parks. I suspect that as Ashland and Medford have become increasingly pricey and gentrified, this has basically become what is left of an affordable bedroom community in an increasingly expensive housing market, where working-class jobs have become extremely rare.

2.) Monmouth--- (Pop 9.5k) (65.7% Bernie) Polk County. Mainly now a college town with 35% of the pop ages 18-24 years, and very few seniors. Additionally, is also a working/middle-class affordable bedroom community for commuters to Salem and Corvallis. I was a bit surprised to see city towards the top of the list, but it is the main "teachers college", where historically highly educated individuals are frequently underpaid for their work and service.

3.) Independence--- (Pop 8.6k). (65.2% Bernie). Polk County. This one really surprised me considering there is no major student population and is 36% Latino in a part of the state where there isn't a historical background of labor activism. Still trying to figure this one out, but my thought is that the historical background of the dustbowl refugess in the '30s, combined with Latino labor from the Bracero era in what were the major hop-fields of Oregon, combined with a relatively young and rapidly growing Latino population might account for this 2:1 number.

4.) Vernonia--- (Pop 2.1k) (65.1% Bernie). Remote Rural Washington County. One of the major historic mill towns serving the Northern Tillamook national Forest, heavily settled by Scottish and Irish immigrants. The collective memory of the local population is not just that of a "historic mill town" but also the sons and daughters that now commute long hours for good International Longshoreman Workers Union (ILWU) jobs in the Port of Longview Washington. For the record the ILWU endorsed Bernie in the Dem primaries.

5.) Philomath---- (Pop 4.6k). (64.6% Bernie). Benton County. Suburb/Exurb of Corvallis. Was a major timber mill town until just a few years ago, with union plants. Personal note, I had many friends that worked in those mills over the years, that are now mostly shut down, and lived in Philomath many years ago. Increasingly becoming a bedroom community of Corvallis that is actually affordable where housing costs have become some of the highest in the state, and working people are being forced out of the city of Corvallis.

6.) Eugene--- (Pop 156.2k) (63.5% Bernie). Lane County. Although many picture Eugene as a stereotypical "hippie college town" the reality is that this city has always been heavily dependent on the timber industry for employment, and is primarily a blue-collar and working-class city where you have a mix of the college and alternative culture, combined with more traditional industrial sector jobs. Anyone that wants to perpetuate these stereotypes we can talk offline, but reality is that the vast majority of the population works in low paying and blue-collar jobs, and we can walk up River Road or the streets of West Eugene if you don't believe me.

7.) Corvallis--- (Pop 54.5k Pop) (63.5% Bernie). Benton County. Although Corvallis is heavily dominated by young folks associated with Oregon State University, the reality is that this is only one of several large employers in the city. I haven't run the numbers, but am thinking Obama beat Hillary in the city 70-30% in '08, largely because of the war in Iraq. There are several populated precincts in North Corvallis and NW Hills (Uninc) where Hillary won decisively among higher income Democrats (HP Managers and Engineers/ Doctors/ Lawyers/ University Professors and Administration).

8.) Hood River--- (Pop 7.2k Pop) (63.3% Bernie). Hood River County. One of the more heavily Latino cities in Oregon with 25% Latino and <65% Anglo. Also home to a large LGBT community and a regional Community College, as well as environmentalists moved out from Portland.

9.) Cornelius---  (Pop 12.1k Pop) (62.9% Bernie). Washington County. 50% Latino. Established working class community West of Hillsboro in a former agricultural area.

10.) Veneta--- (4.6k Pop) (62.9% Bernie). Lane County. Former rural "hippie" community and site of the Oregon Country Fair, becoming increasingly pricey because of aging boomers but still vast majority commutes to work elsewhere.

11.) Ashland--- (20.1k Pop). (62.1% Bernie). Jackson County. Home of Southern Oregon State University and the Oregon Shakespearean Festival. One of the most expensive cities in Southern Oregon, and Obama and Democrats have dominated in both the primaries and GEs in Oregon. Was honestly expecting this to be more heavily Bernie country, but looks like significant swing towards Hillary from '08 to '16 among higher-income voters in the city.

12.) Creswell--- (5k Pop) (62.0% Bernie). Rural Lane County. Don't know much about Creswell, but it does appear that despite a relatively older population to be a bit more representative of rural parts of Southern Oregon.

13.) Springfield--- (59.4k Pop). (61.5% Bernie). Lane County. Blue Collar City over the river from Eugene. Heavily working-class town for years that has until recent years been looked down upon because of the Oregon Citizen's Alliance (OCA) movement in the late '80s/early '90s where the voters passed an anti-gay initiative. These times are long gone, and if anything the town has become increasingly Democratic over the years, but is still a working-class community with the largest Latino population in Eugene-Springfield metro. Still lots of good paying mill and warehouse jobs, including some union jobs.

14.) Aumsville--- (3.6k Pop). (61.2% Bernie). Marion County Rural. Don't know too much but is 15% Latino with an average household income.

15.) Cottage Grove--- (9.7k Pop) (60.5% Bernie). Lane County South. Former mill town on the Southern edge of the Willamette Valley/ Mix of counter-culture and blue-collar timber industry background.

16.) St Helens--- (12.9k Pop) (60.5% Bernie). Columbia County. Heart of union blue-collar workers along the Western Columbia River (aka "Reagan Democrats"). This used to be one of the most Democratic cities and counties in the state, but started to move away from the party in the '90s when they felt abandoned under the Clinton administration.

17.) Milwaukie--- (20.2k Pop) (60.5% Bernie). Clackamas County. Blue collar suburb of SE Portland. Still somewhat affordable with rapid gentrification in metro over the past five years.

18.) Sandy--- (9.6k Pop) (60.1% Bernie). Clackamas County. Interesting rural/exurban part of the county. Lots of blue-collar roots and mix of people from rural backgrounds and exurbanites looking for a quite place to live.

19.) Portland--- (632k Pop?/) (59.9% Bernie). Enough said.... PDX deserves its own additional post and analysis since there are many interesting variations from Westside to Eastside and in different communities....

[IceSpear]

I find it funny that latte liberals were the only group to swing toward Hillary during the primary process (not counting when she was like 70 points ahead, obviously.) I remember back when he was polling at 15-20% or so they were basically Bernie's main base of the support. Did it just get too "real" for them or something to vote for a socialist once it looked like he actually had a chance?

[VPH]

I find it funny that latte liberals were the only group to swing toward Hillary during the primary process (not counting when she was like 70 points ahead, obviously.) I remember back when he was polling at 15-20% or so they were basically Bernie's main base of the support. Did it just get too "real" for them or something to vote for a socialist once it looked like he actually had a chance?

Hillary is the canddiate of the professional class this time around. The liberal suburbanites turned when it became clear that Bernie was the working class/youth candidate.

[NOVA Green]

I find it funny that latte liberals were the only group to swing toward Hillary during the primary process (not counting when she was like 70 points ahead, obviously.) I remember back when he was polling at 15-20% or so they were basically Bernie's main base of the support. Did it just get too "real" for them or something to vote for a socialist once it looked like he actually had a chance?

So if by the term Latte Liberal, you are referring to wealthy and upper-middle class educated Democrats living in extremely expensive and "desirable" neighborhoods (Top schools, very nice parks and amenities, etc...) that are overwhelmingly Anglo, it does appear that Hillary did quite well in these areas based upon Oregon precinct level results.

As I noted earlier when we first started to see county level numbers, the counties where there was the biggest swing towards Hillary from '08 to '16 were in Benton, Deschutes, Multnomah, Gilliam(), and Washington Counties in that order. To a lesser extent Jackson County as well.

Now all of those counties (Excepting Gilliam!!!) would definitely have significant pockets of "Latte Liberals", and were actually some of Obama's best counties in the 2008 Dem Primary.

I can't speak to Bernie's base of support among this population back when he was polling at 15-20%, but it does seem pretty clear that at least on the West Coast this was one of Hillary's strongest demographics if we look not only at Oregon county/precinct results, but also in the Washington State Primary (King County), as well as certain parts of the Bay Area (SFC, Marin) and Coastal cities in LA County, based upon county/precinct results from Cali.

[NOVA Green]

Gilliam County destroys the map. HC

But, but, but..... there were two write-in votes for Bernie that would have flipped the county to 102-101 Bernie if only the votes were allowed to count!!!!

We were cheated on the map, because two people were too lazy to change their registration 30 days before the election. Someone should take to Reddit to claim fraud!

 

[NOVA Green]

Ok---- so what's the deal with Portland, Oregon???

Multnomah County was one of Hillary's worst counties in the entire state in 2008 where she garnered only 34% of the 2-person vote against Obama and she improved to 40.7% in 2016.

The entire county accounted for 26.3% of the total statewide vote in '08 and 29.6% in '16. Meanwhile, the city of Portland accounted for 26.7% of the total statewide vote in '16.

What appears to be the major variance in Hillary's performance in Portland (PDX) between '08 and '16 is a dramatic improvement in West Portland (Basically all areas West of the Willamette River).

2008: West Portland= (33.6k Total) (29.5-70.5% Obama)
2016: West Portland= (37.4k Total) (49.5-50.5% Bernie)

2008: East Portland= (116.8k Total) (34.4-65.6% Obama)
2016: East Portland= (128.9k Total) (37.2-62.8% Bernie)

In general, West Portland is a much more affluent and "Latte Liberal" part of the city than East Portland, that has always been much more working and middle-class , including the largest minority populations within the city.

West Portland in the "downtown" and "South Portland" areas has changed significantly in the past 10 years as expensive high-rise condos are increasingly dominating the city skyline and gradually displacing individuals on fixed-incomes that used to dominate the old "low-rise" or tenement style housing that used to be predominate the inner west-side downtown landscape, but still this doesn't come close to explaining the extreme swing from '08 to '16 in what is essentially 25% of the city.

There is a significant Gay Male population around NW 23rd street and the "Burnside Triangle", but although this might have some differences in the margins between Hillary '08 and '16, and based upon what we know from precinct results in heavily Gay neighborhoods in the Castro in '08 to '16 still doesn't explain the dramatic variance.

My pet theory is that in the cities PacNW (As well as certain parts of the Bay Area) that the war in Iraq was the major issue that separated the Hillary/Obama campaigns, and that there were many upper-income Democrats that supported Obama in '08 and switched to Hillary '16 since the Democratic Primary had become more of contest of economic policy.