Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET)
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Author Topic: Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET)  (Read 23916 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #450 on: May 17, 2016, 10:55:36 PM »

Jefferson County, OR flipped to Sanders.
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Hydera
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« Reply #451 on: May 17, 2016, 10:55:58 PM »

Was wondering if the Mail-in ballot helped Hillary or Bernie.  And i think with a (Closed) primary actually I think Bernie would of gotten a 8-14% margin had it been a primary since although primaries allow more privacy than caucuses. Mail-in-ballots are definitely a lot easier for Hillary voters who are Older and have less free time than younger voters.

Now with an open primary then its likely it would of been Bernie having a margin of 16-24%.

So a closed primary+mail-in-ballots definitely wiped out his potential margins had an Open primary happened.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #452 on: May 17, 2016, 10:57:50 PM »

Looks like we're at the "mail in lull." Like I said earlier in the thread, WA was stuck at ~50% reporting for most of the night in 2010. Is the same gonna happen here?
Shame because the late ballots will favour Sanders. Hopefully I wake up to a 10pt margin and county sweep in the morning.

Ew...that's nasty Wink
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cinyc
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« Reply #453 on: May 17, 2016, 11:01:33 PM »

Looks like we're at the "mail in lull." Like I said earlier in the thread, WA was stuck at ~50% reporting for most of the night in 2010. Is the same gonna happen here?

Multnomah County, Oregon's (Portland) elections website says the next update will be around 9:30PM Pacific, or 12:30AM Eastern.  Judging from the total votes and undervotes for one of the ballot initiatives and the reported returned ballots as of 5:30PM, they counted about 75% of the total votes in the first drop.
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cinyc
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« Reply #454 on: May 17, 2016, 11:14:05 PM »

Sanders will go ahead in Tillamook County by 20 votes when the AP tally matches the county elections officials' website.

Clackamas County seems to have counted more votes in the first round than they had ballots returned as of yesterday.  There might not be many more votes to tally there.
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cinyc
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« Reply #455 on: May 18, 2016, 12:03:10 AM »

Sanders netted 1260 additional votes from the second Multnomah report.  He won that batch 59-40, instead of the 54-46 from the first batch.
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« Reply #456 on: May 18, 2016, 12:06:47 AM »

5 of the delegates are pretty close and might not be called for days or something.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #457 on: May 18, 2016, 12:28:35 AM »

Entering in the current seven point margin into the demrace.com calculator puts the delegate allocation at 33 Sanders, 28 Clinton.

This puts his needed % in California to 70.001%. He also now needs 60% in New Jersey, 63% in New Mexico, and 53% in Puerto Rico. This is in addition to denying Hillary viability in MT, SD, and ND, and holding her to 64% in the Virgin Islands and 70% in DC.

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IceSpear
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« Reply #458 on: May 18, 2016, 12:37:35 AM »

Entering in the current seven point margin into the demrace.com calculator puts the delegate allocation at 33 Sanders, 28 Clinton.

This puts his needed % in California to 70.001%. He also now needs 60% in New Jersey, 63% in New Mexico, and 53% in Puerto Rico. This is in addition to denying Hillary viability in MT, SD, and ND, and holding her to 64% in the Virgin Islands and 70% in DC.

rly
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jimrtex
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« Reply #459 on: May 18, 2016, 12:45:15 AM »

Wonder how well Bernie does in coal country. Probably crushes Clinton there.

Harlan County:

Bernie Sanders 63%
"We're Going To Put The Coal Miners Out of Work ... Right, Tim <smirk>" Clinton 26%
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« Reply #460 on: May 18, 2016, 12:45:56 AM »

Entering in the current seven point margin into the demrace.com calculator puts the delegate allocation at 33 Sanders, 28 Clinton.

This puts his needed % in California to 70.001%. He also now needs 60% in New Jersey, 63% in New Mexico, and 53% in Puerto Rico. This is in addition to denying Hillary viability in MT, SD, and ND, and holding her to 64% in the Virgin Islands and 70% in DC.

rly

Sanders's speech tonight involved no "tone-down" whatsoever. He said catching up in pledged delegates was difficult, but possible.
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Holmes
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« Reply #461 on: May 18, 2016, 12:48:29 AM »

Wonder how well Bernie does in coal country. Probably crushes Clinton there.

Harlan County:

Bernie Sanders 63%
"We're Going To Put The Coal Miners Out of Work ... Right, Tim <smirk>" Clinton 26%

She brought Harlan county to heel when she won the Kentucky.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #462 on: May 18, 2016, 12:50:39 AM »

Entering in the current seven point margin into the demrace.com calculator puts the delegate allocation at 33 Sanders, 28 Clinton.

This puts his needed % in California to 70.001%. He also now needs 60% in New Jersey, 63% in New Mexico, and 53% in Puerto Rico. This is in addition to denying Hillary viability in MT, SD, and ND, and holding her to 64% in the Virgin Islands and 70% in DC.

rly

Sanders's speech tonight involved no "tone-down" whatsoever. He said catching up in pledged delegates was difficult, but possible.

Math seems to deny that.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #463 on: May 18, 2016, 12:50:51 AM »

Entering in the current seven point margin into the demrace.com calculator puts the delegate allocation at 33 Sanders, 28 Clinton.

This puts his needed % in California to 70.001%. He also now needs 60% in New Jersey, 63% in New Mexico, and 53% in Puerto Rico. This is in addition to denying Hillary viability in MT, SD, and ND, and holding her to 64% in the Virgin Islands and 70% in DC.

rly

Sanders's speech tonight involved no "tone-down" whatsoever. He said catching up in pledged delegates was difficult, but possible.
I wonder if he actually believes that.
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Holmes
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« Reply #464 on: May 18, 2016, 12:53:39 AM »

Entering in the current seven point margin into the demrace.com calculator puts the delegate allocation at 33 Sanders, 28 Clinton.

This puts his needed % in California to 70.001%. He also now needs 60% in New Jersey, 63% in New Mexico, and 53% in Puerto Rico. This is in addition to denying Hillary viability in MT, SD, and ND, and holding her to 64% in the Virgin Islands and 70% in DC.

rly

Sanders's speech tonight involved no "tone-down" whatsoever. He said catching up in pledged delegates was difficult, but possible.
I wonder if he actually believes that.

No, he just needs his supporters to believe the lie so that they keep sending him money and he can keep paying his campaign managers and consultants.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #465 on: May 18, 2016, 12:55:39 AM »

Entering in the current seven point margin into the demrace.com calculator puts the delegate allocation at 33 Sanders, 28 Clinton.

This puts his needed % in California to 70.001%. He also now needs 60% in New Jersey, 63% in New Mexico, and 53% in Puerto Rico. This is in addition to denying Hillary viability in MT, SD, and ND, and holding her to 64% in the Virgin Islands and 70% in DC.

rly

Sanders's speech tonight involved no "tone-down" whatsoever. He said catching up in pledged delegates was difficult, but possible.
I wonder if he actually believes that.

No, he just needs his supporters to believe the lie so that they keep sending him money and he can keep paying his campaign managers and consultants.

That's it. This race is all about CA, it's an extremely expensive place to run in and he needs a decent result to maximise his impact in Philadelphia.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #466 on: May 18, 2016, 12:58:18 AM »

Entering in the current seven point margin into the demrace.com calculator puts the delegate allocation at 33 Sanders, 28 Clinton.

This puts his needed % in California to 70.001%. He also now needs 60% in New Jersey, 63% in New Mexico, and 53% in Puerto Rico. This is in addition to denying Hillary viability in MT, SD, and ND, and holding her to 64% in the Virgin Islands and 70% in DC.

rly

Sanders's speech tonight involved no "tone-down" whatsoever. He said catching up in pledged delegates was difficult, but possible.
I wonder if he actually believes that.

I'm not sure. What I hope is that he is just saying that to secure a California victory, so he can make the argument that he had a real movement right to the end, winning in the most populated state. He then issues a reluctant endorsement of Clinton by June 15, campaigns for her once or twice, and passes on his donor Network to Alan Grayson 2024 (or whoever the revolution candidate next time is going to be).
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IceSpear
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« Reply #467 on: May 18, 2016, 01:00:41 AM »

Entering in the current seven point margin into the demrace.com calculator puts the delegate allocation at 33 Sanders, 28 Clinton.

This puts his needed % in California to 70.001%. He also now needs 60% in New Jersey, 63% in New Mexico, and 53% in Puerto Rico. This is in addition to denying Hillary viability in MT, SD, and ND, and holding her to 64% in the Virgin Islands and 70% in DC.

rly

Sanders's speech tonight involved no "tone-down" whatsoever. He said catching up in pledged delegates was difficult, but possible.

I just thought it was odd you'd bother to calculate for an impossible scenario. It would be like making Victor Sanchez Williams benchmarks to win against Sessions in 2014.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #468 on: May 18, 2016, 01:07:35 AM »

Clinton wins Gilliam county by literally one vote. Sanders landslides in Wheeler County.
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #469 on: May 18, 2016, 01:13:05 AM »

passes on his donor Network to Alan Grayson 2024

You need to put a trigger warning on that bro

I think I'd rather die than have to live in a world where people elect Alan Grayson president.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #470 on: May 18, 2016, 01:36:28 AM »

Clinton wins Gilliam county by literally one vote. Sanders landslides in Wheeler County.

CNN is saying that only 50% of the vote is in from Gilliam County.
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Xing
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« Reply #471 on: May 18, 2016, 02:20:38 AM »

The way OR is going, it should be a double digit win, though not a huge one. Probably 10-12%. That shouldn't be possible, since Sanders obviously can't ever win a closed primary, and his 46% win in WA would've been a loss if only it had been a primary! Anyway, I'll accept my accolades when Bernie crosses 55%. Yeah, it's not an extreme landslide, but it still shows that the PNW is Bernie country, if Hillary loses by more than 10% even under the best conditions for her.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #472 on: May 18, 2016, 02:27:03 AM »

The way OR is going, it should be a double digit win, though not a huge one. Probably 10-12%. That shouldn't be possible, since Sanders obviously can't ever win a closed primary, and his 46% win in WA would've been a loss if only it had been a primary! Anyway, I'll accept my accolades when Bernie crosses 55%. Yeah, it's not an extreme landslide, but it still shows that the PNW is Bernie country, if Hillary loses by more than 10% even under the best conditions for her.

I think he may end up winning every county too.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #473 on: May 18, 2016, 02:28:49 AM »

The way OR is going, it should be a double digit win, though not a huge one. Probably 10-12%. That shouldn't be possible, since Sanders obviously can't ever win a closed primary, and his 46% win in WA would've been a loss if only it had been a primary! Anyway, I'll accept my accolades when Bernie crosses 55%. Yeah, it's not an extreme landslide, but it still shows that the PNW is Bernie country, if Hillary loses by more than 10% even under the best conditions for her.

I think he may end up winning every county too.
Gilliam County is 100% reporting, and Clinton won by 1 votes.
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« Reply #474 on: May 18, 2016, 02:40:37 AM »

Also, thanks for f***ing up the map even more, Kentucky. 2,000 more votes for Sanders, and you guys could've at least made it look okay. Now Indiana and West Virginia stick out like a sore thumb.
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