Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET)

[NOVA Green]

Bernie up by 12 points now with 93% in.

Benchmark said he'd win by only 1. I guess they went to sh**t after they got involved with Correct The Record.

I think that all Oregon results are in.... reason being the one outstanding county (Multnomah) would previously post on their website the next pending update. This has now stopped, hence my post regarding "final returns". I could be wrong, but that's what I am seeing...

Also, Benchmark was totally off as several of us were discussing last night and basically didn't even acknowledge their epic miss regarding Oregon except to say something to the effect that it was influenced by that one crazy poll, while the entire time they are accepting all of the attention that they just received from the MSM developing some modelling in two states where the media was no longer polling, so yeah huge miss on this one, although at least overall they are doing some good work when it comes to filling the gap left with the decline of 538 for data driven models.

[cinyc]

Bernie up by 12 points now with 93% in.

Benchmark said he'd win by only 1. I guess they went to sh**t after they got involved with Correct The Record.

I think that all Oregon results are in.... reason being the one outstanding county (Multnomah) would previously post on their website the next pending update. This has now stopped, hence my post regarding "final returns". I could be wrong, but that's what I am seeing...

Also, Benchmark was totally off as several of us were discussing last night and basically didn't even acknowledge their epic miss regarding Oregon except to say something to the effect that it was influenced by that one crazy poll, while the entire time they are accepting all of the attention that they just received from the MSM developing some modelling in two states where the media was no longer polling, so yeah huge miss on this one, although at least overall they are doing some good work when it comes to filling the gap left with the decline of 538 for data driven models.

Multnomah supposedly had about 250,000 ballots returned but has only counted about 225,000.  So there may be some more left to count in the county.

[cinyc]

I think Multnomah County updated again (or at least updated the pdf on their website).  They've now counted 239,985 of the 250,452 ballots.  So there are about 10,500 ballots left to count there, assuming all ballots they claim they received are valid.

Multnomah's next update will be at 4PM Pacific (7PM Eastern) tomorrow.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Congrats to Team Bernie on a good win in OR.

[Crumpets]

Does anybody have a 2008-2016 swing map? I imagine it might look odd.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Bernie up by 12 points now with 93% in.

Benchmark said he'd win by only 1. I guess they went to sh**t after they got involved with Correct The Record.

Do you have any proof of that or are you talking as usual from your backdoor orifice?

[Xing]

Does anybody have a 2008-2016 swing map? I imagine it might look odd.

For OR? Or KY? I don't think it would look that strange in OR. It would look ridiculous in KY, though.

[Eraserhead]

Where things currently stand according to the Oregon Secretary of State's page:

Sanders 341,472 55.68%
Clinton 261,145 42.58%
Write-ins 10,702 1.74%

So Bernie's margin is now up to 13.10% and participation is rivaling what it was in 2008. It may even exceed it depending on how many ballots there are left to count.

This is in stark contrast to Kentucky, where turnout bordered on abysmal.

Also, Sanders is currently leading in Multnomah (Portland) 58.62%-40.66%.

[Boston Bread]

Wow, when was the last time Bernie did better in urban areas than statewide?

[IceSpear]

Do we know how much is left to count in Oregon?

[Eraserhead]

Do we know how much is left to count in Oregon?

No, because the SOS's page is saying that they're are at 100% but they also said that yesterday and then there was another vote dump from Portland this afternoon anyway. lol.

I can't imagine there is too much left though. Like I said, they've nearly matched 2008's turnout as it is which is not something that many states can say on the Democratic side of things this cycle.

[cinyc]

Do we know how much is left to count in Oregon?

No, because the SOS's page is saying that they're are at 100% but they also said that yesterday and then there was another vote dump from Portland this afternoon anyway. lol.

I can't imagine there is too much left though. Like I said, they've nearly matched 2008's turnout as it is which is not something that many states can say on the Democratic side of things this cycle.

Multnomah County's website claims they counted 255,644 ballots.  256,569 ballots were supposedly received by Tuesday, but that number has been edging upwards in the past few days.  Nevertheless, there can't be many more ballots to count there.  Multnomah says their next update is 4PM tomorrow, so there probably are a few votes left to count.

I suppose there can be some military and overseas votes for the federal races that, IIRC, must be counted even if received after election day regardless of state laws on the subject, too.

[NOVA Green]

Wow, when was the last time Bernie did better in urban areas than statewide?

Actually that does not appear to be the case...

Bernie did worse in Metro Portland (Multnomah, Washington, and Clackamas counties) than downstate...

Bernie won 57.0-43.0 downstate (Everywhere but the three Metro counties above)

So far the three Metro counties are at 56.4-43.8 Bernie, with a few remaining late vote to count that are trending heavily Bernie ~65-35, which still probably means that downstate Bernie margins end up higher than metro portland margins.

Those three counties of Portland account for ~54% of the Democratic Primary vote, as well as about 50% in statewide General Elections.

As I stated before, there was a huge collapse of the Obama-Hillary margins in metro Portland, but a huge swing in small town and rural Oregon towards Bernie that caused the state to be closer to a +14% Bernie final number against Clinton as opposed to the +17% Obama-Hillary margin.

I am working on an '08-county swing map, but am still working out the bugs on my first county map post.

[Eraserhead]

The latest count from Oregon:

Bernie Sanders 345,890 55.85%
Hillary Clinton 263,347 42.52%   
Write-in Votes 10,067 1.63%

Bernie's margin is still growing.

It also looks like the total number of write-in votes decreased for some reason.

[Holmes]

The latest count from Oregon:

Bernie Sanders 345,890 55.85%
Hillary Clinton 263,347 42.52%   
Write-in Votes 10,067 1.63%

Bernie's margin is still growing.

It also looks like the total number of write-in votes decreased for some reason.

Fraud, no doubt?

[NOVA Green]

Does anybody have a 2008-2016 swing map? I imagine it might look odd.

First attempt making a county map, so please forgive if it doesn't follow the conventional Atlas modelling.

Dark Blue= Obama to Bernie >15% Total margin swing (Or basically +7.5% swing)
Light Blue= Obama to Bernie >7% Total margin swing (+3.5% swing)
Light Green= Obama to Bernie <7% Total margin swing (+0.1-3.5% swing)
Yellow= Clinton <7% Total margin swing (+0.1-3.5% swing)
Violet= Clinton >7% Total margin swing (+3.5% swing)
Red= Clinton >15% Total margin swing (Or basically +7.5% swing)



So basically biggest swings from Obama '08 to Bernie were in Eastern Oregon and historically blue-collar and unionized areas in Western Oregon such as Coos, Linn, and Columbia counties, and to a lesser extent in several other similar counties in Southern Oregon (Josephine & Douglas counties).

Hillary saw dramatic improvement in two counties that went heavily Obama in '08 (Benton and Deschutes Counties) where despite some very liberal Dem constituencies in Corvallis and Bend, also have a decent population of upper-income Democratic voters. A similar pattern to a lesser extent manifested in Southern Oregon's Jackson county, where the economy has shifted away from Timber and more into retirees and tourism in recent years.

Where the bulk of the 5% Obama '08 to Bernie '16 margin drop was in Metro Portland (Multnomah and Washington counties) where the heavy downstate swing was not enough to offset the drop in the major population center of the state.

[Eraserhead]

Bernie Sanders 348,684 55.93%
Hillary Clinton 264,565 42.44%   
Write-in Votes 10,169 1.63%

You can round Hillary down to 42% now.
   

[Eraserhead]

Yet another update, Bernie's margin is up to 13.62% now:
   
Bernie Sanders      350,689   55.97%
Hillary Clinton      265,316   42.35%
Write-in Votes      10,516   1.68%   

[The Other Castro]

Is it still not finalized yet?

[Eraserhead]

Is it still not finalized yet?

Still going, there was another update:

Bernie Sanders      353,023   56.04%
Hillary Clinton      266,279   42.27%   
Write-in Votes      10,626   1.69%   

[Xing]

I guess we better hope California is decided by at least 4%, otherwise it might literally be weeks before we know the winner for sure.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I guess we better hope California is decided by at least 4%, otherwise it might literally be weeks before we know the winner for sure.

We had like 2 million uncounted votes the morning after the election 2014 (or was it 2012) that took something around 2-4 weeks to finish counting.

[Eraserhead]

There was a pretty big vote dump today, Bernie's margin has climbed up to 14.17%.

Bernie Sanders 360,403 56.24%
Hillary Clinton 269,592 42.07%
Write-in Votes 10,862 1.69%

The turnout (or participation) should also be higher than 2008's after the next group of votes come down.

Total votes in the 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary (so far): 640,857

2008 total (according to Leip): 641,499

[Gass3268]

Thank you Oregon!

[Xing]

Oregon is an FF state, lots of people are involved in politics.