Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET)

[Fusionmunster]

Forecast roundup:

One of these models includes facebook likes. Guess which?

[Fusionmunster]

So benchmark is saying turnout in Portland is terrible. It might not hold though, people have till the end of the day to turn in there ballots.

[Fusionmunster]

So heres something shocking...


Hillary actually outspent Bernie in Kentucky.

[Fusionmunster]

So benchmark is saying turnout in Portland is terrible. It might not hold though, people have till the end of the day to turn in there ballots.

considering the voting trends so far Bernie was far stronger in all rural counties in WA and similar states while being weaker in the big cities, so that's not such a bad thing.

It depends on who your rooting for. Oregon is weird. Portland should be one of Sanders strongest areas so if turnout is bad, it might show a closer than expected race.

[Fusionmunster]

@benchmarkpol
"So we think Sanders will win Oregon and Clinton, Kentucky. We think Oregon will be pretty close though. Won't be shocked at all if she wins"

[Fusionmunster]

So benchmark is saying turnout in Portland is terrible. It might not hold though, people have till the end of the day to turn in there ballots.

I'm not sure how accurate that really is. Through yesterday, 46.8% of eligible Dems had returned their ballots statewide. Multnomah was at 43.9%, which is lower, but not dramatically. That's slightly higher than Clackamas's 43.2% and slightly below Washington County's 44.8%. Plus Multnomah has more than twice as many returned ballots as any other county so far.

On the other hand, Benton County (OSU) was sitting at 55.4% and Lane County (Eugene) was at 50.6%, both of which should be strong Sanders territories. Marion County (Salem), which might be more pro-Clinton, was at 45.2%.

I think your forgetting how high turnout usually is though. Wasnt it something like 80% in 2008?

[Fusionmunster]

As I've said for a while, Sanders will win OR by double digits. Benchmark politics' reputation is about to take a hit, and that one poll will go down with a few others as one of the worst polls of the election cycle. I'll be back later to accept my accolades. KY is less certain, though if I had to guess, Hillary probably takes it narrowly.

I mean probably but I wouldn't be so certain.

[Fusionmunster]

HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Fusionmunster]

Some early stuff coming in so of course that favors Clinton.

[Fusionmunster]

9% uncommitted.

okay then.

[Fusionmunster]

If this is all early voting, these results don't look too promising for Clinton...

Early voting/Absentee voting isnt like it is in other states. If I recall, you cant just get an absentee ballot because you feel like it. Someone correct me if im wrong.

[Fusionmunster]

Hillary's numbers recovering after taking an early tumble. It's still the early early stuff, though.

Coal country starting coming in.

[Fusionmunster]

AP called Kentucky for Clinton then took it back because they remembered all the polls weren't closed.

Going by Benchmark anyway.

[Fusionmunster]

Boy does coal country dislike Sec. Clinton. Large margins of loss for her here could hurt her in the general election in states like Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Ohio

All three of those being states she carried in the primaries.

All states before her disastrous comments on crushing the coal industry that made a grown man cry

I mean, they weren't voting democrat anymore anyway but it definitely hurt her in the primary.

[Fusionmunster]

Sanders' vote lead back to about a thousand.

This lead will not survive the next  Jefferson and/or Fayette dump.

Benchmark says to just add 15,000 votes to Hillarys total. Im not so sure about that but a Clinton win seems like a good possibility right now.

[Fusionmunster]

Not that strong of a result in Fayette for Clinton. Should go down to the wire.

Strong enough.

[Fusionmunster]

Benchmark calls it for Hillary.

[Fusionmunster]

Where have all those new Bernie votes been coming from?

Pike county

[Fusionmunster]

Just updated, they should be calling it soon.

[Fusionmunster]

Its been called by MSNBC.

[Fusionmunster]

Pike County is back with same vote count,  I checked.

[Fusionmunster]

So why wont CNN and AP call Kentucky?

[Fusionmunster]

Many news organizations don't make a call if there's a possibility of a recount.

Do you think there will be a recount?

[Fusionmunster]

Non viable my ass.

[Fusionmunster]

I guess Tyle Pedigo might need to keep his predictions to himself for a few weeks after tonight.