Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET)

[IceSpear]

Bernie has been losing steam lately.  I think Hillary might win both states.

She's not winning Oregon.

[IceSpear]

I really think that Clinton is going to struggle to overcome her huge disadvantages in coal country, which in Kentucky is both in the eastern and western parts of the state, to pull out a win.

Exhibit A:

Wow, I had forgotten that he actually did worse in Kentucky than he did in West Virginia in 2012.

This is why I changed my prediction from Clinton >50% to Clinton >40%.

Uncommitted is a much better option for protest voters than felons/prison inmates. O'Malley and De La Fuente will be on the ballot as well.

[IceSpear]

Any idea when the first OR results will come in? I'd imagine it'll come in very quickly once it starts.

About 40% of the vote came in almost immediately in the 2012 GE.

Isn't there a huge stall after that though? I know in 2010 the Washington Senate race was stuck at ~50% reporting all night, and we didn't know Murray won until the next day.

I'm not sure if Oregon is the same way, but their systems are very similar, right?

[IceSpear]

Yeah I have a feeling that Sanders will do well with the 43% that already voted against Obama in 2012 in Kentucky. If you add Franklin county and perhaps UK and it the state tightens.

It has been 8 years though. A lot of those people have left the party. It's also possible a lot will stay home (particularly since there's no Republican contest) or vote uncommitted.

[IceSpear]

I wonder who Kim Davis would've voted for if she was still a Democrat.

I'm sure she caucused for Trump.

[IceSpear]

Boy does coal country dislike Sec. Clinton. Large margins of loss for her here could hurt her in the general election in states like Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Ohio

Coal country has been gone since 2012.

[IceSpear]

Hillary has finally won a Clinton County. The last one I believe.

[IceSpear]

The results from WV and KY on the Democratic side make no sense if you look at the neighboring states. Tennessee's border with Kentucky is solidly Clinton country, and especially in the counties bordering Kentucky's western panhandle are strong Clinton counties. Yet it now appears as tho Sanders will win strongly in some counties where across the state lines Clinton took 60, sometimes 70 percent. Is it that her comments about coal made them rebel against her, or is it just that these states' Democratic electorates are so different from their neighbor's ones. I don't really believe in the idea that her coal comments alienated so many people; especially for Democratic voters, I feel that most of the outrage is an overreaction. However I can see it playing into an image of Clinton as someone who just can't relate to these kinds of voters. Yet again, I'm reminded that she won rural eastern Ohio, western PA, and western VA, as well as Appalachian TN. Still doesn't make much sense.

TN was an open primary. All the Dixiecrats/Conservadems crossed over for Trump.

[IceSpear]

I feel so bad for Grimes.

Hopefully another state can import her. KY will soon make statewide Democrats extinct.

[IceSpear]

Sanders also never contested Tennessee when he should've. He literally spend $0 on it.

I mean, the state was 32% black. But yeah, someone seeking the nomination needs to fight for nearly every delegate.

[IceSpear]

Claire McCaskill apparently thinks the KY GOP caucus happened today.  Lol.

Nobody corrected her either. She's convinced Trump can't unite the Republican Party because he got in the 30s. lol

[IceSpear]

As a Clinton supporter, it annoys/concerns me how much rural and Conservative Democrats have abandoned her in Appalachia. Why would they vote for a socialist anyway? They don't agree with his policies certainly.

They never liked her. They voted for her because she wasn't the black guy. John Edwards would've beaten them both in a landslide.

[IceSpear]

KY O'M best State?

Nah, he got 2.28% in Florida due to all the Dixiecrats in the Panhandle.

[IceSpear]

Am I wrong for thinking this is something of an upset for Clinton - I mean, Sanders won West Virginia by 15 points!

Nah, it's about as expected. The entirety of WV was coal country. This time it's balanced out by places like Louisville, Lexington, and the Cincinnati suburbs. Both campaigns apparently thought it was a coin flip.

[IceSpear]

If the remaining Jefferson precincts are by a fluke Sanders friendly, this could be Missouri 2.0...

[IceSpear]

Clinton wins!

[IceSpear]

fwup fwup fwup

So hideous. First RI, now WV.

[IceSpear]

So hideous. First RI, now WV.

It might get even worse if Clinton pulls out wins in South Dakota and Montana.

She won't win MT. SD would be quite ugly though.

[IceSpear]

Many news organizations don't make a call if there's a possibility of a recount.

[IceSpear]

This is why I changed my prediction from Clinton >50% to Clinton >40%.

Uncommitted is a much better option for protest voters than felons/prison inmates. O'Malley and De La Fuente will be on the ballot as well.

Glad I changed it.

[IceSpear]

Obama chose not to ask for a recount in MO in the 2008 general election. He could've, he didn't want to. Let it be Sanders.

Obama is a Democrat. He's about party unity.
Sanders isn't a Democrat. He's about his "revolution."
Bernie Sanders = Rand Paul.

Rand or Ron Paul has never won a primary/caucus.

Ron Paul actually won the Virgin Islands caucus, you corporate media shill.

[IceSpear]

Are we ever going to get the remaining precincts in KY?

[IceSpear]

Obama chose not to ask for a recount in MO in the 2008 general election. He could've, he didn't want to. Let it be Sanders.

Obama is a Democrat. He's about party unity.
Sanders isn't a Democrat. He's about his "revolution."
Bernie Sanders = Rand Paul.

Rand or Ron Paul has never won a primary/caucus.

Ron Paul actually won the Virgin Islands caucus, you corporate media shill.

He also won the majority of delegates in Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, and Minnesota! #ronpaulr3VOLution

The fact that the only place he ever genuinely won the vote was the VIRGIN Islands will never cease to make me chuckle.

[IceSpear]

Are we ever going to get the remaining precincts in KY?

According to the local elections officials, Clinton net another 110 votes from 2 of the missing 4 Jefferson precincts, I think both of the HD-48 ones. 

That just leaves 2 Jefferson precincts outstanding.  Kenton is fully in with the same vote tally as the AP shows with 4 precincts out, per the SoS and DDHQ.

Ah, thanks. I just noticed the change on CNN after nothing for like an hour. I guess they saw my post and got to work.

[IceSpear]

Sanders up 54-46 in Multnomah.