Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) (user search)
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  Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET)  (Read 24443 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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Posts: 30,280
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Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

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« on: May 17, 2016, 04:56:08 PM »

As I've said for a while, Sanders will win OR by double digits. Benchmark politics' reputation is about to take a hit, and that one poll will go down with a few others as one of the worst polls of the election cycle. I'll be back later to accept my accolades. KY is less certain, though if I had to guess, Hillary probably takes it narrowly.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #1 on: May 17, 2016, 05:07:02 PM »

Stop the count at 151 votes!! LOL
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #2 on: May 18, 2016, 02:20:38 AM »

The way OR is going, it should be a double digit win, though not a huge one. Probably 10-12%. That shouldn't be possible, since Sanders obviously can't ever win a closed primary, and his 46% win in WA would've been a loss if only it had been a primary! Anyway, I'll accept my accolades when Bernie crosses 55%. Yeah, it's not an extreme landslide, but it still shows that the PNW is Bernie country, if Hillary loses by more than 10% even under the best conditions for her.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #3 on: May 18, 2016, 02:40:37 AM »

Also, thanks for f***ing up the map even more, Kentucky. 2,000 more votes for Sanders, and you guys could've at least made it look okay. Now Indiana and West Virginia stick out like a sore thumb.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #4 on: May 18, 2016, 08:23:06 AM »

The way OR is going, it should be a double digit win, though not a huge one. Probably 10-12%. That shouldn't be possible, since Sanders obviously can't ever win a closed primary, and his 46% win in WA would've been a loss if only it had been a primary! Anyway, I'll accept my accolades when Bernie crosses 55%. Yeah, it's not an extreme landslide, but it still shows that the PNW is Bernie country, if Hillary loses by more than 10% even under the best conditions for her.

What accolades, no one disagreed with you.

Some people certainly did. There were those saying WA would be extremely close if it had been a primary, and at least several posters predicted Clinton would win OR.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #5 on: May 18, 2016, 06:52:11 PM »

The way OR is going, it should be a double digit win, though not a huge one. Probably 10-12%. That shouldn't be possible, since Sanders obviously can't ever win a closed primary, and his 46% win in WA would've been a loss if only it had been a primary! Anyway, I'll accept my accolades when Bernie crosses 55%. Yeah, it's not an extreme landslide, but it still shows that the PNW is Bernie country, if Hillary loses by more than 10% even under the best conditions for her.

What accolades, no one disagreed with you.

Some people certainly did. There were those saying WA would be extremely close if it had been a primary, and at least several posters predicted Clinton would win OR.

Don't be obtuse. It would have been much closer than 75/25. In fact, it may have been closer than OR given how much more diverse and wealthy Seattle is than Portland. I agree that Bernie would no doubt have won, but don't pretend that it would have been any more of a margin than NH.

Of course it would have been closer, but some people were claiming it would have been "extremely close" or even that Clinton would have won.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2016, 06:59:43 PM »

Bernie up by 12 points now with 93% in.

Benchmark said he'd win by only 1. I guess they went to sh**t after they got involved with Correct The Record.

They put some stock in a poll that was clearly junk, and didn't factor in ideology enough. It's not the first time they've been wrong. They predicted Clinton would narrowly win IN and RI.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #7 on: May 19, 2016, 01:10:52 AM »

Does anybody have a 2008-2016 swing map? I imagine it might look odd.

For OR? Or KY? I don't think it would look that strange in OR. It would look ridiculous in KY, though.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #8 on: June 06, 2016, 12:26:22 AM »

I guess we better hope California is decided by at least 4%, otherwise it might literally be weeks before we know the winner for sure.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #9 on: June 06, 2016, 10:39:08 PM »

Oregon is an FF state, lots of people are involved in politics.
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