Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET)

[cinyc]

And Sanders takes the lead in the AP count, as provided by the New York Times, 46.9%-45.8%.

[cinyc]

Waiting for exit polls.

You'll be waiting until November.  There will be no exit polls until the general election.

[cinyc]

DD has 169,048 and AP has 200,773 votes, yet DD is ahead?

They're ahead in a county that counts for Clinton, Fayette, and behind in a lot of small, rural counties that lean Sanders.  It's a mixed bag.

[cinyc]

Clinton now up by about 300 votes in the AP tally from the New York Times.  More of Jefferson County came in.  Most of Fayette is still out in the AP tally, which we know will net Clinton another 3,500 votes or so when reporting.

Edit: Now Clinton +3 votes.

[cinyc]

Ugh, so I had to turn in the moment the lead switched?
Sanders can still win if he gets a strong performance in Lexington.

Spoiler alert: He won't.  Sanders will lose Fayette County (Lexington) by about 4,000 votes when the AP finally updates the county, according to Decision Desk HQ.

[cinyc]

Ugh, so I had to turn in the moment the lead switched?
Sanders can still win if he gets a strong performance in Lexington.

Spoiler alert: He won't.  Sanders will lose Fayette County (Lexington) by about 4,000 votes when the AP finally updates the county, according to Decision Desk HQ.

Just reported. It is 3,000, not 4,000.

I can't count, I guess.  It's 3,000 on DDHQ, too.

[cinyc]

Huffpo shows that most of the precincts still out are in counties Hillary is leading in (including Jefferson).  It looks like a done deal.

Jefferson County precincts can be misleading.  Some are empty or very close to empty.  Others are more Republican-leaning than the rest of the county.  Which precincts are actually reporting is what matters.

[cinyc]

It looks like some of the Jefferson County vote is from House District 33, which is more suburban than urban on the east side of town.  The Jefferson part of that HD accounts for 25 of the missing Jefferson County precincts.

[cinyc]

52% of the remaining precincts are Jefferson County. Almost certain Clinton win.

But of those 136 Jefferson County precincts, 25 are in HD-33 and 22 are in HD-48, neighboring house districts in the more suburban, white (and Asian) part of Jefferson County.  14 precincts are in HD-41, which includes African-American precincts south of downtown.  The rest, I can't tell, because there weren't primaries in every HD.

This, of course, assumes that the precincts outstanding in Kentucky House races also outstanding in the presidential race.

[cinyc]

Jefferson County-only results:
http://elections.jeffersoncountyclerk.org/zeroresults-1.htm

[cinyc]

Jefferson County-only results:
http://elections.jeffersoncountyclerk.org/zeroresults-1.htm

Suggest Clinton would be gaining a net of about 3,500 votes. Enough for a very narrow win.

Two of the four remaining Jefferson precincts are in HD-48.  There are no KY House primaries in the other 2 precincts.

[cinyc]

All that's left in Kentucky, per the AP, is 4 precincts in Jefferson and (maybe) 4 precincts in Kenton County (Cincy suburbs).  I say maybe for Kenton because both the KY SoS and DDHQ say the county is fully reporting, with the same vote tally as the AP.

[cinyc]

Have Oregon polls closed or they do in an hour? I'm confused.

Well, there were no polls to close, just mail-in ballots.  The deadline for them to be received was 8PM.  A very small part of the state, most of Malheur County near Boise, is in the Mountain Time Zone.  It is after 8PM there now.

[cinyc]

I checked the Malheur County Clerk's election results website.  They're not releasing results until 9PM Mountain Time, or 11PM Eastern. The southern part of the county is on Pacific Time, anyway.

[cinyc]

Are we ever going to get the remaining precincts in KY?

According to the local elections officials, Clinton net another 110 votes from 2 of the missing 4 Jefferson precincts, I think both of the HD-48 ones. 

That just leaves 2 Jefferson precincts outstanding.  Kenton is fully in with the same vote tally as the AP shows with 4 precincts out, per the SoS and DDHQ.

[cinyc]

Malheur County, Oregon:
321 Sanders
316 Clinton
60 Write-Ins

[cinyc]

Kentucky SoS claims all precincts statewide are reporting, with the same Jefferson and Kenton County results that the AP is reporting with precincts out:

Hillary CLINTON      212,550   46.76%   
Bernard 'Bernie' SANDERS      210,626   46.33%   
Martin J. O'MALLEY      5,703   1.25%   
Roque Rocky De La FUENTE      1,593   0.35%   
'UNCOMMITTED'      24,101   5.30%

[cinyc]

At this point looks like a Bernie sweep of Oregon counties

How?  Currently, Clinton is winning Washington, Clackamas, Jefferson and Deschutes, and Tilamook is a tie.

[cinyc]

Looks like we're at the "mail in lull." Like I said earlier in the thread, WA was stuck at ~50% reporting for most of the night in 2010. Is the same gonna happen here?

Multnomah County, Oregon's (Portland) elections website says the next update will be around 9:30PM Pacific, or 12:30AM Eastern.  Judging from the total votes and undervotes for one of the ballot initiatives and the reported returned ballots as of 5:30PM, they counted about 75% of the total votes in the first drop.

[cinyc]

Sanders will go ahead in Tillamook County by 20 votes when the AP tally matches the county elections officials' website.

Clackamas County seems to have counted more votes in the first round than they had ballots returned as of yesterday.  There might not be many more votes to tally there.

[cinyc]

Sanders netted 1260 additional votes from the second Multnomah report.  He won that batch 59-40, instead of the 54-46 from the first batch.

[cinyc]

Bernie up by 12 points now with 93% in.

Benchmark said he'd win by only 1. I guess they went to sh**t after they got involved with Correct The Record.

I think that all Oregon results are in.... reason being the one outstanding county (Multnomah) would previously post on their website the next pending update. This has now stopped, hence my post regarding "final returns". I could be wrong, but that's what I am seeing...

Also, Benchmark was totally off as several of us were discussing last night and basically didn't even acknowledge their epic miss regarding Oregon except to say something to the effect that it was influenced by that one crazy poll, while the entire time they are accepting all of the attention that they just received from the MSM developing some modelling in two states where the media was no longer polling, so yeah huge miss on this one, although at least overall they are doing some good work when it comes to filling the gap left with the decline of 538 for data driven models.

Multnomah supposedly had about 250,000 ballots returned but has only counted about 225,000.  So there may be some more left to count in the county.

[cinyc]

I think Multnomah County updated again (or at least updated the pdf on their website).  They've now counted 239,985 of the 250,452 ballots.  So there are about 10,500 ballots left to count there, assuming all ballots they claim they received are valid.

Multnomah's next update will be at 4PM Pacific (7PM Eastern) tomorrow.

[cinyc]

Do we know how much is left to count in Oregon?

No, because the SOS's page is saying that they're are at 100% but they also said that yesterday and then there was another vote dump from Portland this afternoon anyway. lol.

I can't imagine there is too much left though. Like I said, they've nearly matched 2008's turnout as it is which is not something that many states can say on the Democratic side of things this cycle.

Multnomah County's website claims they counted 255,644 ballots.  256,569 ballots were supposedly received by Tuesday, but that number has been edging upwards in the past few days.  Nevertheless, there can't be many more ballots to count there.  Multnomah says their next update is 4PM tomorrow, so there probably are a few votes left to count.

I suppose there can be some military and overseas votes for the federal races that, IIRC, must be counted even if received after election day regardless of state laws on the subject, too.