Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET)

[Holmes]

Sanders is already giving excuses for his performance in Oregon.

http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/oregon-bernie-sanders-primary-restrictions/

[Holmes]

Sanders is already giving excuses for his performance in Oregon.

http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/oregon-bernie-sanders-primary-restrictions/

Eh it's just the same thing he says before every primary.

He does? Not "we hope to do well in x state"?

[Holmes]

Yeah, Portland and suburbs are below average compared to the rest of the state, and will probably end up staying below average, but it's not exactly terrible. Unless Clinton really does end up winning the state, then we can say turnout wasn't high enough for Sanders.

[Holmes]

I wonder if we'll see a comparable outcome of that in SW PA in areas of Kentucky that would probably otherwise be anti-Clinton because it's a closed primary.

[Holmes]

Decision Desk showing Clinton up 10% in Fayette with nearly 50% in.

[Holmes]

AP called Kentucky for Clinton then took it back because they remembered all the polls weren't closed.

Going by Benchmark anyway.

How the hell could you call a state with 2% of the vote in and no exit poll? Ridiculous.

There seems to be different numbers depending on where you check.

[Holmes]

Decision Desk is at 91% reporting with Clinton up 8%. Jefferson is about 4% reporting with Clinton up 30%.

[Holmes]

Campbell county went from Clinton, to Sanders, back to Clinton. That's rare.

[Holmes]

Campbell county went from Clinton, to Sanders, back to Clinton. That's rare.

Hardin also flipped back to Clinton after flipping to Sanders. Looking like Clinton will take this barring something crazy in Warren county and Louisville.

[Holmes]

Take that Sanders!

Now if a hilarious upset could happen in Oregon (yeah, I know, not going to happen).

#Believe

"What if....(whispers) West Virginia was the last state Bernie Sanders won...what if?"

whispers of a dream

[Holmes]

For some reason, Pike votes taken out of the total. What is going on?

Yea what happened to Pike?!

Obama droned it.

[Holmes]

Wonder how well Bernie does in coal country. Probably crushes Clinton there.

Harlan County:

Bernie Sanders 63%
"We're Going To Put The Coal Miners Out of Work ... Right, Tim <smirk>" Clinton 26%

She brought Harlan county to heel when she won the Kentucky.

[Holmes]

Entering in the current seven point margin into the demrace.com calculator puts the delegate allocation at 33 Sanders, 28 Clinton.

This puts his needed % in California to 70.001%. He also now needs 60% in New Jersey, 63% in New Mexico, and 53% in Puerto Rico. This is in addition to denying Hillary viability in MT, SD, and ND, and holding her to 64% in the Virgin Islands and 70% in DC.

rly

Sanders's speech tonight involved no "tone-down" whatsoever. He said catching up in pledged delegates was difficult, but possible.

I wonder if he actually believes that.

No, he just needs his supporters to believe the lie so that they keep sending him money and he can keep paying his campaign managers and consultants.

[Holmes]

Considering Oregon was the Berniest state left on the calendar and before yesterday he needed to win 2/3 of the remaining pledged delegates this was a disater for him at least in terms of the fantasy he could win the nomination.

The second part is true, but Bernie will almost certainly do better in North Dakota (caucus), and probably Montana (open primary).

North Dakota for sure. It'll probably look like a late March caucus state.

Also I think Benchmark put too much stock on the early returns. They got the first batch of results pretty good.  I think they overestimated the weight of those early returns.

[Holmes]

The latest count from Oregon:

Bernie Sanders 345,890 55.85%
Hillary Clinton 263,347 42.52%   
Write-in Votes 10,067 1.63%

Bernie's margin is still growing.

It also looks like the total number of write-in votes decreased for some reason.

Fraud, no doubt?