538: Pennsylvania could be the tipping-point state as early as this year

[JRP1994]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pennsylvania-could-be-an-electoral-tipping-point/

[Holmes]

It'll probably be Colorado again.

[Mallow]

PA and FL are the do or die states for Trump.

This exactly. And I agree, I think PA will be the tipping point state this year. But if not, it'll be Florida.

[Nyvin]

If that article is true,   then it basically means Democrats only need to win 1 of 3 states....FL, OH, or PA.

[RaphaelDLG]

I really like the trend map, but why the hell didn't he reproduce the tipping point table?!?

[Skye]

PA and FL are the do or die states for Trump.

And OH.

[Mallow]

If that article is true,   then it basically means Democrats only need to win 1 of 3 states....FL, OH, or PA.

Yes, but it's pretty clear now that Trump is winning OH if its close nationwide.  So it's really about one of PA or FL.

Yep, exactly. OH will vote to the right of both PA and FL, so if Clinton is winning Ohio, she's also winning PA and FL.

[pbrower2a]

In a D blowout, Minnesota could be the tipping-point state, as it does not swing much. It was the best state for Democrats in 1984 and second-best in 1972... and not particularly strong for Obama in 2008.  I can imagine Minnesota going 57-42 in a 57-42 election but going 51-48 in a disastrous year for a Democratic nominee.

[Sbane]

It'll probably be Colorado again.

No way. It might be Virginia or possibly Florida, but not Colorado. Trump will not do well in the west.

[Sir Mohamed]

PA and FL are the do or die states for Trump.

PA not necessarily, he could also win by switching FL, OH, VA and CO (or IA). However, the Trumpster won’t win the GE. That’s certain.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

If that article is true,   then it basically means Democrats only need to win 1 of 3 states....FL, OH, or PA.

Yes, but it's pretty clear now that Trump is winning OH if its close nationwide.  So it's really about one of PA or FL.

Not really...he's only leading with 43% in a poll with a ridiculous amount of undecideds. If he starts leading 48-46 or something then maybe OH can be classified as lean Trump.

[Mehmentum]

PA and FL are the do or die states for Trump.

PA not necessarily, he could also win by switching FL, OH, VA and CO (or IA). However, the Trumpster won’t win the GE. That’s certain.

VA and CO are very unfavorable terrain for Trump (there was thread discussing which of these two were worse for him, with inconclusive results).

Mathematically Trump could find ways around Pennsylvania, but most likely Pennsylvania is part of his path of least resistance to 270.

[Nym90]

I agree that Pennsylvania is more winnable for Trump than Virginia or Colorado (for the reasons the article states), but I am skeptical that Florida is more winnable for Trump than Pennsylvania.