The Hillary Downfall

[Heisenberg]

Hey guys, this is my first attempt at a timeline. It will be updated periodically, and focuses on the 2016 election, and continue until at least the 2020 election. The events in the timeline are based on what is going on in real life as of today (May 18, 2016). I may make some updates to reflect what happens in real life later, but this is of course, an alternative timeline. For example, the candidates in the House and Senate races in this timeline may not be the ones we'll have in real life, but again, this is an alternative universe timeline. Enjoy!

[SATW]

Good luck! I'm sure it'll be a good one

[Heisenberg]

2016 Presidential Election: Early Outlook
At this point, we now know that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have both secured their respective parties' nominations. The conventions are approaching, but we are yet to know who they will pick as their running mates. Here are the lists of likely running mates for both candidates:
Trump:
Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ)
Former MA Sen. Scott Brown (R-NH)
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA)
Sen. John Thune (R-SD)
Gov. Rick Scott (R-FL)

Clinton:
Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
HUD Secretary Julian Castro (D-TX)

Stay tuned for more updates, and coverage of the conventions, followed by polls!

[Heisenberg]

2016 Republican National Convention
At the 2016 Republican National Convention, security is stepped up, in anticipation of harsh protests. Fortunately, the convention, which was at one point expected to be contested, was far more peaceful than anyone had expected. There were a handful of non-violent protesters outside, and a few people tried to sneak in and bring protest signs inside the convention, but they were quickly stopped by security. Speaker Ryan remained the chairman of the committee after formally endorsing Trump on Memorial Day. Chris Christie gave the keynote speech. Then, came Trump's big choice: His running mate. This proved to be difficult, since few top Republicans actually wanted to be his running mate. Trump stated that he wanted to pick someone with a lot of legislative experience to balance the ticket and provide him with guidance. Trump ends up choosing former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) as his running mate, citing his legislative experience, and hoping that he will help the establishment unify behind him. Reince Priebus accepts the presidential and vice presidential nominees, but announces that he will resign as chairman of the Republican National Committee in January 2017. Paul Ryan reaffirms his support for Trump, saying “We, as Republicans, both agree far more than we disagree, and our party shall remain united to defeat Hillary Clinton in November. And I’m sure Newt Gingrich, one of my predecessors as speaker will add a lot of political experience to the ticket, and help Donald cruise to victory.”
2016 Democratic National Convention
The next week, the Democrats hold their convention. Despite the fact that Hillary Clinton won a majority of the pledged delegates, Sanders supporters continued to protest the superdelegate system and held a demonstration outside the convention site in Philadelphia. The protests were not violent, but it became clear that many Democratic voters -mainly younger voters- wanted a more progressive, left-leaning Democratic Party.
Meanwhile, at the convention, Julian Castro gave the keynote speech, and Hillary Clinton was about to select her running mate. Weighing in all the options, she settled for Ohio Senator and progressive stalwart Sherrod Brown. Though if elected, he would have to resign his seat and Republican governor John Kasich gets to appoint the successor, he is chosen to try to win over Sanders supporters, and help Hillary out by boasting his progressive credentials, including his opposition to the Defense of Marriage Act (even when it was popular on both sides of the aisle), his votes against the Iraq War, and lifelong opposition to free trade deals. Clinton also wants to avoid having two women on the ticket, to dodge gender card accusations, and she likes how Brown’s home state, Ohio, is a critical swing state. She hopes Brown can help her win Ohio, and counterattack against Trump in the Rust Belt. Interestingly, both parties’ tickets are balanced in terms of trade. Clinton says she is certain to defeat Trump, and made the right decisions to unite the Democratic Party.

The next update will provide brief commentary recapping the conventions, followed by early polling and maps.

[Heisenberg]

With both parties' conventions now behind us, and their running mates chosen, it's time for some serious analysis. Trump plans to attack Clinton on her husband's record on NAFTA and on domestic violence and extramarital affairs, as well as the fact that Trump thinks she got away with lying about Benghazi and her controversial email server. Clinton, however, is ready to prove to progressives that she is their candidate, and has her running mate, Sherrod Brown serve as an attack dog. Brown talks about why he voted against trade deals, the Iraq War, and DOMA. The Clinton camp also attacks Trump for picking Gingrich, who helped Bill Clinton pass NAFTA. Trump says that he is for trade, but that it should be negotiated fairly, and that he will work to renegotiate the deal to level the playing field and keep American companies from leaving the country. Heated arguments rush back and forth between the two as the election season is in full swing. Gingrich and Brown, however, remain relatively calm, leading pundits to comment that they are acting more presidential than the actual candidates. With so much at stake, and the nation extremely polarized, this campaign is expected to be nastier than ever. Some say that all hell will breaking loose on the campaign trail. With changing demographics and public opinion, Republicans are thinking about how to move forward. While the party is doing all they can to help Trump and candidates in downballot races, they are strategizing on what to do to appeal to more young people in the future, and choose a new party chair who can bring fresh leadership after Priebus steps down in 2017. Republicans know that their candidates really should not be as polarizing and offensive as Trump. Even as Trump stops making such provocative comments, people note that his harsh tone has not gone away.

RCP Polling Average, August 1, 2016
Hillary Clinton/Sherrod Brown: 46%
Donald Trump/Newt Gingrich: 43%
Undecided: 11%
Average Margin of Error: 2.8%

Shown below is an early map based on polling. Trump does not appear to be making as large inroads as he hoped to in the Rust Belt. Arizona, Missouri, and Georgia are also not as Republican leaning as they usually are, but it remains to be seen if that holds.

The next update will discuss Senate races, the Supreme Court, and North Carolina.

[Heisenberg]

2016 Senate Race Outlook:
In 2016, Republicans are clearly playing defense, havign to defend 24 seats of their own, as opposed to the Democrats' 10 seats. The only potential Republican pickups are Nevada and Colorado, and in the latter, nominee Jon Keyser lags behind incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet in all polls. Joe Heck (R) and Catherine Cortez-Masto (D) are neck and neck in the polls.
Other Races:
Maryland: Cathy Szeliga is polling higher than expected in Maryland, but Chris Van Hollen is still heavily favored to win.
Indiana: In the open seat in Indiana, Republican nominee and IN-09 representative Todd Young is consistently up by about 10 points against Democratic nominee Baron Hill, who was unseated from IN-09 by Young in 2010.
Louisiana: John Neely Kennedy (R), the incumbent State Treasurer, drops out to avoid fracturing the field too much, hoping to avoid a situtation similar to when John Bel Edwards (D) was elected governor in 2015. Edwards would also appoint a Democrat to fill the position of Treasurer if Kennedy was elected, further influencing his decision. The seat, however, is expected to stay Republican.
Florida: Democrats pass up former Young Republican and swing seat congressman and Blue Dog Patrick Murphy in favor of liberal firebrand Alan Grayson for the nomination, after the latter wins the late August, low turnout primary 52-48. Exit polls showed many progressives flocking to the polls and moderate-liberals staying home, which is somewhat of an anomaly. Voters also said they were turned off by Murphy's privileged and troubled past, and also said he wasn't liberal enough. On the Republican side, the GOP coalesced around incumbent Marco Rubio, who entered the race late but cleared the field. In the general election, he has lots of support. David Jolly and Ron DeSantis drop out of the race, opting to run for reelection to their respective House seats, and Carlos Lopez-Cantera also drops out to perform his role as lieutenant governor and pave the way for a run for the other seat in 2018. Rubio easily defeats the other minor candidates by winning 78% of the primary vote, and enters the general election as the favorite.
New Hampshire: Gov. Maggie Hassan, going into September, has been holding an average 5 point lead over incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte in the polls.
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey has been outperforming Trump in polls. Despite the fact that Trump has been making a push in Pennsylvania, he has not been making as large inroads as he had hoped. Nevertheless, Toomey, ahead of Democratic opponent Katie McGinty in name recognition, is holding an average 4 point lead in polls, and has been campaigning in the 15th district with popular Republican Congressman Charlie Dent. Toomey once represented that district, and Dent, who succeeded him, has also been helping Toomey in other parts of the state (with GOP AG candidate John Rafferty, also slightly up in the polls), leading to speculation that Dent will run against Bob Casey for the other Senate seat in 2018.
Ohio: Portman, also distancing himself from Trump, attributes his 2-point lead to aggressive attacks against Strickland, based on his poor record as governor. Portman also up-plays his cabinet experience to paint himself as far more qualified than Strickland, and campaigns with popular Governor (and former 2016 GOP Presidential Candidate) John Kasich.
Illinois: Kirk appears to be toast, due to presidential turnout, and the very Democratic lean of Cook County (home to Chicago). He is down by 5 points in the entire state, despite being up by 2 points outside of Cook County.
Wisconsin: Johnson also appears toast, down by an average of 4 points against recovered Russ Feingold, who lost this same seat to Johnson in 2010.
Missouri: Roy Blunt, high in polls, spends time campaigning with statewide executive candidates in Missouri for 2016, such as Peter Kinder, the gubernatorial nominee. The Missouri row officers appear to be ripe GOP pickup opportunities, but only time will tell what really happens.
Arizona: Incumbent John McCain narrowly edged defeat in the Republican primary, earning 51% of the vote to State Sen. Kelli Ward's 47%, with other candidates taking the remaining 4%. He now faces a strong challenge from moderate Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, a congresswoman from a swing district. McCain is still favored, though.

So, looking at the map, and analysis, it appears as if many GOP candidates in downballot races are distancing themselves from Trump's language and divisiveness. Also, the Koch Brothers, and many other Republican donors and strategists have said that they are focusing on Senate, House, and Governor races. Below is a summary of the Senate races.

Safe D:

California
Connecticut
Hawaii
Oregon
New York
Washington

Likely D:

Illinois
Maryland

Lean D:

Colorado
New Hampshire
Wisconsin

Tossups:

Nevada

Lean R:

Pennsylvania
Ohio
Florida

Likely R:

Iowa
Arizona
Missouri

Safe R:
Alabama
Alaska
Arkansas
Georgia
Idaho
Kansas
Kentucky
Oklahoma
North Dakota
South Dakota
South Carolina
Utah

Stay tuned for more coverage, and please feel free to comment about my timeline. This is my first attempt, and I'm still relatively new, so I'm doing my best.

[Heisenberg]

2016 Update: North Carolina
Just twelve short years ago in 2004, North Carolina was a far more conservative state. Bush won it comfortably even with Democratic Senator John Edwards as the VP nominee, and Republican Richard Burr picked up Edwards’s seat for the Republicans. But the state has shifted leftward. The controversial HB2 became very unpopular in the state and the country, and put Gov. Pat McCrory (R) in hot water, as he faces a tough fight for reelection against State Attorney General Roy Cooper (D). Many liberals are calling for boycotts of North Carolina, and the federal government has been threatening to cut funds to the state. Now, in 2016, the state seems to be very competitive. Republicans are making a major push to win big in the state in 2016, and hope to keep it Republican leaning. Democratic Attorney General candidate Josh Stein was polling ahead of Republican Buck Newton, but now trails after making a few gaffes, like calling the right to choose gender identity a “fundamental right”, and vowing to fight against North Carolina’s right to work law. McCrory, Newton, and incumbent lieutenant governor Dan Forest vow to work to protect peoples’ privacy and safety, grow the economy, and follow their constitutional duties. NC election debates also move to focus more on economic issues, and the bathroom debate starts to die down closer to the election. The state still remains relatively socially conservative, so the Republicans all begin to pull through in the polls. The negative economic effects on the state are also up-played heavily by liberals.
Polling in NC:

President:
Trump 48%
Clinton 47%

Senate:
Burr 51%
Ross 48%

Governor:
McCrory 49%
Cooper 48%

Lieutenant Governor:
Forest 51%
Coleman 46%

Attorney General:
Newton 48%
Stein 46%

[Heisenberg]

State of the Supreme Court
In a 6-2 ruling, the Supreme Court overturns Bob McDonnell’s conviction in McDonnell v. United States. The Court rules that politicians are regularly asked to take actions for constituents after treatment to lunch or to gifts. Six of the sitting justices (all except Ginsburg and Sotomayor) rule that McDonnell’s acceptance of the expensive gifts was not considered bribery. They stated, ask lawyers how to define when such influence should be considered illegal, and state that giving power to prosecutors to determine whether such actions are a crime is dangerous. Justice Breyer, in the majority opinion, writes that it presents a question about separation of powers if the Justice Department becomes the ultimate arbiter of the behavior of elected officials.
And, wait, only eight justices? There are supposed to be … oh wait, that’s right. Time has still gone by, and the Senate has still chosen not to hold hearings for Garland. The Republican Senate leaders say that this is because of the so-called “Biden Rule” from 1992. The public has been in favor of hearings, according to polls, but it seems like it has been slipping away from peoples’ minds. Iowa Senator and Judiciary Committee chairman Chuck Grassley (R) remains popular in his state, and should still win reelection, especially since the Democrats did not field a strong challenger. The judiciary is expected to become a heated issues during the Presidential debates, though.

North Carolina and Iowa/Supreme Court (in the above posts) were covered because they are both swing states and the bathroom issue appears to be important for a large number of voters. Interestingly, in North Carolina, it appears as if this is getting a lot more social conservatives than liberals fired up to vote, similar to the situation in Houston last year when voters resoundingly rejected the HERO ordinance, a similar bill to HB2. North Carolina seems to be trending Republican this year: No Obama on the ballot has led to a noticeable drop in Black turnout, plus North Carolina is a very polarized state, inelastic with very few swing voters. In Iowa, popular senator Grassley appears to be in no trouble despite the Supreme Court controversy. In fact, he also appears to be helping incumbents Rod Blum and Dave Young, from districts 1 and 3, respectively. Both Republicans were viewed as vulnerable, but they seem to be doing fine in the polls. Trump has also been targeting Iowa, and he seems to be making pretty good inroads with the people there. The other hotly contested states this general election are Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, Virginia, and Florida.

The next update will talk about other news events happening in the fall (September and October), and summarize the presidential and vice presidential debates.

[SATW]

great job! I like it so far

[Kingpoleon]

Kennedy dropped out? Since there aren't any other moderates who are in for the GOP:

#CaoForSenate

[Heisenberg]

Kennedy dropped out? Since there aren't any other moderates who are in for the GOP:

#CaoForSenate

Well, I decided to have somebody drop out to narrow the field, and I explained why he dropped out (Governor Edwards appoints a Democrat to be treasurer for the next 3 years). I still have not quite decided who wins the race in this TL, polling is limited. New update coming very soon!

Also, the governor races.

2016 Governor Race Outlook:
This year, twelve governorships are at stake (including the Special Election in Oregon. The majority is not at stake, Republicans will come out with a majority of governorships, and they are even looking to expand that majority, possibly to a record high. Here are the ones at stake:

Washington: Jay Inslee (D) is expected to defeat Bill Bryant (R) for a second term.
Oregon: Kate Brown (D) is expected to defeat Bud Pierce (R) to serve the remainder of John Kitzhaber's (D) term in this special election.
Montana: Steve Bullock (D) is running for reelection, but wealthy businessman Greg Gianforte (R) is expected to give him a good run, focusing on economic growth, and hoping to be the first Republican elected to the Montana Governorship since 2000, in one of only two pure tossup governor races. Trump has also been helping Gianforte in this very Republican-leaning state.
North Dakota: Sitting Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem (R) was defeated in the primary by Microsoft executive and political newcomer Doug Burgum. He is expected to easily beat Marvin Nelson (D) to succeed Jack Dalrymple, (R) who is not seeking reelection.
Utah: Gary Herbert (R) is expected to win reelection against Vaughn Cook (D).
Missouri: Three-term Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder (R) emerged victorious from the crowded primary field and is favored against sitting Attorney General Chris Koster (D). In what should be a bright spot, Republicans are expected to sweep downballot offices, since many are open, and popular, term limited incumbent Governor Jay Nixon (D) is not on the ballot, meaning downballot Republicans don't have to overcome his coattails (or Todd Akin's "exhaust fumes").
Indiana: Mike Pence (R) is expected to face a tough reelection battle, but is favored against John Gregg (D).
West Virginia: Billionaire Jim Justice (D) seemed like a promising candidate to hold the open governor seat for the Democrats, but Bill Cole (R), aided by Trump and his motto "Cole for Coal" has been pulling away a heavy lead, and is now heavily favored to win.
North Carolina: Pat McCrory (R) seemed favored for reelection until HB2, and then trailed badly in the polls. However, with the controversy dying down, and the campaign shifting to economic issues, McCrory is once again the slight favorite. Black turnout is expected to drop from 2008/2012 levels, and youth turnout is not projected to be high, so that, plus NC's social conservative lean, should help McCrory edge out a narrow victory against sitting Attorney General Roy Cooper (D). To sweeten this, Republicans are also expected to pick up the Attorney General seat, after the Democratic candidate made a major gaffe.
Delaware: At-large Congressman John Carney (D) should should easily defeat State Sen. Colin Bonini (R).
Vermont: The second true tossup, Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott (R) and Sue Minter (D) are in dead heat. Can the popular, moderate Phil Scott pull through and overcome the heavy Democratic lean of Vermont and the presidential-level turnout?
New Hampshire: Colin Van Ostern (D) slightly trails Chris Sununu (R), probably due the latter's high name recognition and last name (his father was a former governor and NH GOP chair, and his brother was a US Senator, serving from 2003-2009). Who will prevail in this rare New Hampshire race between two men?

[Heisenberg]

The Debates:
First presidential debate: Monday, Sept. 26, 2016, at Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio
This is when all hell really breaks loose on the campaign trail. Trump starts to go all-out on Hillary Clinton, and the Donald Trump from the first few Republican debates returns. Donald Trump viciously attacks Hillary’s husband, Bill for his terrible infidelities. He also takes strong aims at her past record on trade, as expected. Clinton counterattacks by aiming at Trump’s past marriages, bankruptcies, and all sorts of other controversies (like Trump University). This debate got pretty nasty, and the two candidates shouted at each other, saying that nothing was off limits. For much of the debate, the candidates attacked each others’ pasts and families. Eventually, one of the moderators says “All hell has broken loose. Calm down, we are here to see the two of you debate in a civil manner. We have had enough debates about personality, ethics, and family, time for real issues more typical in debates.” This also led to more strict rules for the next two debates, which turned out to be far more civil.
Vice presidential debate: Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2016, at Longwood University in Farmville, Va.
Gingrich outshines Sherrod Brown in the only Vice presidential debate, in what was an important bright spot Team Trump. Trade was the center of the debate, Brown attacked Gingrich for being pro-NAFTA, etc. but running with anti-free trade Trump. Gingrich counterattacked by stating that he was helping bipartisan negotiations in Congress, and that trade is really good, but only if it’s done fairly. Gingrich explained that Trump means well, and wants to grow the economy by keeping trade deals and foreign manipulation in check. Gingrich also emphasizes his leadership as Speaker, helping strategize the large Republican gains in 1994, and his ability to work across the aisle with Bill Clinton, and reminds voters that the 1990’s prosperity was not all on Clinton. Unlike the first presidential debate, the vice presidential debate was far more civil.
Second presidential debate: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2016, at Washington University in St. Louis
At this debate, government spending, wages, and race relations are the primary issues. Highlights: Clinton vows to continue Obama’s legacy, and keep Obamacare, argues for more government involvement in healthcare. She is in favor of raising the minimum wage, and harsher gun laws. Trump vows to repeal and replace Obamacare, leave minimum wage laws to the states while keeping the federal minimum wage where it is, and roll back some harsh gun laws.
Third presidential debate: Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016 at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas   
At this debate, NAFTA, immigration, drugs, and the wall are the primary issues. Highlights: Hillary Clinton maintains that she is going to be softer on immigration, and will not deport illegals. Trump once again insists on deportation, building a wall, and having Mexico pay for it.

Presidential Race Analysis:
Heading into the election, here is a final polling map, and the national average from Real Clear Politics (as of November 5):
RCP Average (November 5, 2016)
Hillary Clinton: 48%
Donald Trump: 47%

The states shown in gray are the tossup states, where both candidates have been fighting hard and campaigning heavily in. In this map, the Midwest (plus Colorado, Virginia, and Florida) is where much of the campaign is really taking place. Those states shown in gray are key to winning the election. Virginia is expected to trend Republican this year, because in spite of growth in the liberal northern part of the state, Trump has made huge inroads with the people in the western parts, and Black turnout is expected to fall this year. Whether or not it will be enough for Trump to win remains to be seen. The states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin are also in play, and Trump is making a big deal about Hillary's past position in favor of NAFTA in those states, where many manufacturing jobs have been lost. Iowa has also been trending Republican lately, and Trump sees those six EV's as ripe opportunity. Colorado and Florida are also very close in the polls, and the former is a YUGE prize with 29 electoral votes. Tomorrow's update will be the start of election night coverage!

[Heisenberg]

Election Night 2016:

Blitzer: Good evening everyone! I'm Wolf Blitzer, and welcome to CNN's coverage of the 2016 Election. It is now 7 PM Eastern time, and polls have already closed in a few states. We are able to make a few projections:
Donald Trump has won the following states:
South Carolina (9 EV's)
West Virginia (5 EV's)
Kentucky (8 EV's)
Indiana (11 EV's)
Hillary Clinton has won Vermont and its three electoral votes. The next polls close in 30 minutes. The following states are too close to call:
Georgia: (2% in)
Trump 52%
Clinton 46%

Florida: (1% in)
Trump 49.5%
Clinton 49.4%

Tennessee: (2% in)
Trump 53%
Clinton 45%

Switching over to some downballot races, we project that incumbent Patrick Leahy (D) will defeat 2014 Republican Gubernatorial nominee Scott Milne (R) in the Vermont Senate race. The governor race remains too close to call. Let's move over to the magic wall, where John King will give us a little insight into what's going on.
King: Hey Wolf, good evening. Here is a look at the Vermont governor race, where Lt. Governor Phil Scott (R) leads Sue Minter (D) with 25% of the vote in. We are not yet able to make a projection, but it is looking good for Scott, he's ahead where he needs to be. At the moment, Scott is up, and leads with 58% of the vote to Minter's 41%. We do not expect that margin to hold, but so far, so good for Scott.

In Kentucky, Georgia and South Carolina, we project incumbent Republicans Rand Paul, Johnny Isakson and Tim Scott will be reelected. And in Indiana, Todd Young (R) handily defeats Baron Hill. The Indiana governor race is too close to call. At the moment, the Senate balance stands at 37 Democrats and 34 Republicans, with 29 races yet to be called. Keep in mind that tonight Republicans are defending 24 seats, and the Democrats only 10, so that's why the Democrats are currently up. The final balance at the end of the night is expected to be much closer.
Blitzer: Alright we have another key race alert, here are the current numbers in Florida:
President: (2% in)
Trump 49.5%
Clinton 49.4%
Senate: (2% in)
Rubio 52.6%
Grayson 46.1%
We cannot project either state at the moment.
Cooper: For the presidential race in Florida, key counties to watch include Hillsborough County (Tampa), Pinellas County (St. Petersburg/Clearwater), and Orange County (Orlando). Volusia County, which is to the northeast of Orange County, home to Daytona Beach and the eastern terminus of Interstate 4 is also critical. The east-west St. Pete-Daytona belt that cuts through Florida, the I-4 corridor will be important to watch, as well as the margins in South Florida, and the Jacksonville area (Duval County). On the magic wall is a map of the critical area (I-4 Corridor) that I just mentioned.

It will also be interesting to see how Volusia County votes this time, in 2012, it voted Republican in a presidential election for the first time since 1988. Thanks for watching, we'll be right back after a word from out proud sponsors.

[MT Treasurer]

Excellent!

[Heisenberg]

Cooper: Welcome back everyone! It is 7:30 PM Eastern time right now, and polls are closed in Ohio, North Carolina, and New Hampshire. We are not yet ready to make any new projections in those states, but we can go back and make projections in several races that we had not previously called. Back to you Wolf.
Blitzer: Alright Anderson we can now call several previously uncalled races in West Virginia.
Bill Cole (R) has defeated Jim Justice (D) in Republicans' first gubernatorial pickup of the night. In that state, we can also safely project that all 3 House incumbents (all Republicans) and the Attorney General, Patrick Morrisey (R) have also won reelection. Now onto the states where the polls just closed. In the Buckeye State, as expected, we cannot project either the Presidential race or the Senate race. In North Carolina, we can project that Richard Burr (R) will be reelected, but the Presidential race, as well as the races for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General all remain uncalled. In New Hampshire, we are also unable to make a projection in the Presidential race, or the race for Governor or Senate. John, could you please show us what's going on in those states?
King: This early on it's difficult to tell, but in North Carolina, it's looking good for Trump. He's not getting trounced in Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) by too much, and in the heavily Black northeastern part of the state (CD 1) where Obama relied on to win the state in 2008, turnout is considerable down compared to the last two elections.
Cooper: It is also worth mentioning that Trump drove turnout in the foothills to higher levels. Clinton is going to have to hope for a wider margin of victory in Mecklenburg County, and a wide margin in the Raleigh-Durham area to make up for lower levels of Black turnout.
King: In Ohio, both the Senate and Presidential races are expected to be close, but the dynamics are going to be very different. In the Presidential race, Trump is hoping for high margins in the rural ares, including and especially the eastern part of the state along the Ohio River, while Portman is aiming to rack up large margins in Hamilton County (Cincinnati) and southern Ohio, the area he once represented in Congress. His Democratic challenger, Ted Strickland, is hoping to do well in eastern Ohio, which was his old House district. For reference, here are the 2012 maps for President

and for Senate (where Brown won reelection)

As you can see, Brown won several counties in the southern part of the state, some of them in Portman's district. Portman has been campaigning pretty well, and received help from popular governor John Kasich. He has also been attacking Strickland's record as governor. Portman has been leading most polls by a very small margin, but we don't expect this race to be called for a while. Shifting over to New Hampshire, I have just been notified of something strange going on. The Presidential race and the Senate race remain way too close to call, but in the governor race, Chris Sununu has a pretty big early lead. First, let's look at our exit polls, shall we.
President:
Clinton: 52%
Trump: 47%
Senate:
Hassan: 49%
Ayotte: 48%
Governor:
Sununu: 48%
Van Ostern: 43%
Other: 8%
Blitzer: Now, with numbers coming in, we see that there seem to be a lot of votes for somebody who wasn't even on the ballot, Stefany Shaheen. She is the daughter of former governor and sitting Senator Jeanne Shaheen. Stefany was considered a top Democratic candidate for governor this year, but she decided not to run. Apparently, she had such a large following among women (exit polls show practically all Shaheen write-in voters are female) in the state. According to the exit polls, about 65% of them came from CD 2, with the remaining 35% from CD 1. And we can call this race for Sununu, making this the second gubernatorial pickup tonight for the Republicans.
Cooper: This is very interesting, and nobody saw this coming. I wonder if Shaheen will play a spoiler effect in the race, since it is pretty clear that all of them would have otherwise voted for Van Ostern. If Sununu fails to earn a majority, I bet people in the Van Ostern campaign will be upset. It should also be noted that the gubernatorial race was the only statewide race in New Hampshire not to have a major female candidate on the ballot. Perhaps that has something to do with it?
Blitzer: Maybe. We'll report more as we find out. It is now 7:50 PM, and more polls will close in ten minutes. Stay right with us, we'll be back momentarily.

[Heisenberg]

Note: I made a few edits to one of the earlier posts because I forgot that KY and IN polls also close at 7 PM Eastern. Nothing unexpected, though, but still worth checking.

[Heisenberg]

Blitzer: Welcome back everyone. It is now 8 PM Eastern, and polls have closed in a lot more states.
We can project the following states for Clinton:
Maine (3 EV, for At-large and CD 1)
Massachusetts (11 EV)
Connecticut (7 EV)
Rhode Island (4 EV)
Maryland (10 EV)
Delaware (3 EV)
Illinois (20 EV)
Clinton has also won DC and their 3 electoral votes.

And these for Trump (including some previously uncalled):
Tennessee (11 EV)
Georgia (16 EV)
Alabama (9 EV)
Mississippi (6 EV)
Missouri (10 EV)
North Dakota (3 EV)
South Dakota (3 EV)
Kansas (6 EV)
Texas (6 EV)

These states are too close to call:
Pennsylvania (20 EV)
New Jersey (14 EV)
Michigan (16 EV)
ME-02 (1 EV)

King: That gives us this map so far.

Trump: 142 EV
Clinton: 78 EV
Cooper: It's still anyone's race. We also have some more projections to make for key downballot races. Back to you Wolf.
Blitzer: We can now project that Senators Roy Blunt, James Lankford, Jerry Moran, Roy Blunt, John Thune, and John Hoeven, all Republicans, have all won their reelection bids in their respective states. We can also project that in Florida, incumbent Marco Rubio (R) has defeated Alan Grayson (D). The race in Illinois between incumbent Mark Kirk (R) and Tammy Duckworth (D) remains too close to call. That puts the Senate balance at 37 Democrats and 42 Republicans, with 21 races yet to be called. And with the governor races, we project that Pat McCrory (R) has won reelection in North Carolina, carrying the Republican Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General candidates to victory with him. In Indiana, we project that Mike Pence (R) has won reelection. In North Dakota, we project that Doug Burgum (R) has won the open seat. And Missouri, we project a third gubernatorial pickup for the Republicans as Lt. Governor Peter Kinder (R) dispatches Chris Koster (D). We also project Republicans will win the other downballot statewide races. In the lone victory for Democrats thus far, we project John Carney wins the governor's mansion in Delaware. The race in Vermont is still too close to call. Here is the map of the gubernatorial races.

[Heisenberg]

More analysis

Blitzer: Right now it is 8:23 Eastern. Before the Arkansas polls close, may you please show us the current results in the key stat of Ohio, John?

King: Here is the map for the race in Ohio at the moment.

62% of the vote is in, and the Clinton/Brown ticket is ahead everywhere they need to be. They are ahead in Franklin (Columbus) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) Counties, and are performing strong in the northern part of the state, which is currently enough to offset Trump's strong performance in rural Ohio and the eastern part of the state.
Clinton: 49%
Trump: 48%
Still enough time for Trump to catch up, though.


And here is the drastically different Senate map.


Cooper: Portman is really doing well in the southern part of the state. He's not getting crushed anywhere, and although he is losing some Trump counties along the border with West Virginia, he is easily making up for it by winning Hamilton County. With 62% of the vote in, here are the percentages:
Portman: 52%
Strickland: 46%

Blitzer: I hear we are ready to project this race for Mr. Portman. This must be a big disappointment to Democrats, they were really hoping to win this seat, especially with Brown on the national ticket.

Cooper: Well, Portman had help from close friend, former House colleague and governor John Kasich, who heavily campaigned for him. It also didn't help that Strickland's poor record as governor was heavily attacked.

Blitzer: Alright, polls have just closed in Arkansas, so we can officially project that Trump carries those six electoral votes, and that John Boozman (R) wins reelection.

King: Now, time for the analysis in Pennsylvania.
With 48% of the vote in, the presidential race is still too close to call.
Clinton: 49.7%
Trump: 48.2%

Clinton appears to be slightly improving on the Obama 2012 map.
And in the Senate race, also too close to call:
Toomey: 51%
McGinty: 49%

Toomey is strongly outperforming Trump. Also, he has the incumbency advantage, and McGinty, despite getting the Democratic establishment support, lags in name recognition.

Blitzer: And Pennsylvania is famous for ticket splitting. In 2000, Santorum won reelection despite Gore winning Pennsylvania. And in 2004, Specter (then a Republican) won reelection even as Kerry won Pennsylvania.

Cooper: Speaking of Specter, who became a Democrat in 2009 to avoid facing Toomey in the primary, narrowly lost the primary to the better-known Joe Sestak. Sestak ended up narrowly losing to Toomey in 2010, and tried again this year, but lost his primary.

King: Of course, that upset the establishment, therefore they backed McGinty instead of Sestak. And it looks like it is backfiring.

Blitzer: Alright, let's make a few projections.
We now project that Trump has won North Carolina. We can also project that Clinton has won ME-02 and New Jersey. Here is the current electoral vote.
Trump: 157 EV
Clinton: 93 EV
We will take a break, and election coverage continues right after this!

[MT Treasurer]

Blitzer: Now, with numbers coming in, we see that there seem to be a lot of votes for somebody who wasn't even on the ballot, Stefany Shaheen. She is the daughter of former governor and sitting Senator Jeanne Shaheen. Stefany was considered a top Democratic candidate for governor this year, but she decided not to run. Apparently, she had such a large following among women (exit polls show practically all Shaheen write-in voters are female) in the state. According to the exit polls, about 65% of them came from CD 2, with the remaining 35% from CD 1. And we can call this race for Sununu, making this the second gubernatorial pickup tonight for the Republicans.
Cooper: This is very interesting, and nobody saw this coming. I wonder if Shaheen will play a spoiler effect in the race, since it is pretty clear that all of them would have otherwise voted for Van Ostern. If Sununu fails to earn a majority, I bet people in the Van Ostern campaign will be upset. It should also be noted that the gubernatorial race was the only statewide race in New Hampshire not to have a major female candidate on the ballot. Perhaps that has something to do with it?

LMAO, this is great.

[Heisenberg]

Blitzer: Now, with numbers coming in, we see that there seem to be a lot of votes for somebody who wasn't even on the ballot, Stefany Shaheen. She is the daughter of former governor and sitting Senator Jeanne Shaheen. Stefany was considered a top Democratic candidate for governor this year, but she decided not to run. Apparently, she had such a large following among women (exit polls show practically all Shaheen write-in voters are female) in the state. According to the exit polls, about 65% of them came from CD 2, with the remaining 35% from CD 1. And we can call this race for Sununu, making this the second gubernatorial pickup tonight for the Republicans.
Cooper: This is very interesting, and nobody saw this coming. I wonder if Shaheen will play a spoiler effect in the race, since it is pretty clear that all of them would have otherwise voted for Van Ostern. If Sununu fails to earn a majority, I bet people in the Van Ostern campaign will be upset. It should also be noted that the gubernatorial race was the only statewide race in New Hampshire not to have a major female candidate on the ballot. Perhaps that has something to do with it?

LMAO, this is great.

I knew you would like it. I waited for you to see it before posting any updates for New Hampshire.

[Heisenberg]

Cooper: For those who are just now joining us, welcome to CNN's coverage of the 2016 Election! For those already watching, we are now back from our break. It's now 9 PM Eastern, and we are ready for more projections! Take it Wolf.

Blitzer: Alright, we can call New York (29 EV) for Clinton, as well as Nebraska (and all 3 districts, for 5 EV) and Louisiana (8 EV) for Mr. Trump. Wisconsin and Minnesota, which each have 10 EV's, are too close to call. We also project that Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) wins reelection in New York. We are also ready to project that Republican Phil Scott has won the Vermont governorship, giving Republicans their fourth gubernatorial pickup of the night. And after an hour, we can now project that Hillary Clinton wins Michigan and its sixteen electoral votes. This has to be a major disappointment to the Trump camp, who was really hoping to win Michigan. Team Trump campaigned heavily across the Rust Belt, including Michigan.
Trump: 170 EV
Clinton: 138 EV

King: Clinton is closing the gap, and in the triple digits for the first time tonight. Trump is 100 EV's away from winning the presidency, but a lot is still up for grabs. Stay with us, we'll back!

[libertpaulian]

MORE!

[Heisenberg]

King: Here are the current numbers in key uncalled races, as of 9:10 PM Eastern.
Ohio: President (74% in)
Clinton: 49.5%
Trump: 49%

Pennsylvania: President (69% in)
Clinton: 50.5%
Trump: 49%

Virginia: President (78% in)
Trump: 52%
Clinton: 47%

Wisconsin: President (13% in)
Trump: 50.2%
Clinton: 49.3%

Minnesota: President (11% in)
Clinton: 51.7%
Trump: 48.9%

Illinois: Senate (69% in)
Kirk: 50.5%
Duckworth: 49%

New Hampshire: Senate (71% in)
Hassan: 51%
Ayotte: 48.9%

King: Trump is heavily outperforming Romney in Virginia. He's doing great outside the northern part of the state, Black turnout is down, and he's racking up large margins in the Appalachian part of the state. He may pull it off. Kirk is also putting up a great fight in Illinois. He's doing well outside Cook County, and even there he's not getting crushed too badly.

[Kingpoleon]

Calm VT Men go!

#GetSueMinterUnderForty

[Heisenberg]

Ewww... Climbing Maggie. Damn.

I know, ewww. But this was planned, as it is very important for the plot of this timeline.