The Hillary Downfall

[libertpaulian]

Man, I want to find out about OH and PA!

[Heisenberg]

Blitzer: We have another key race alert. Here area few more critical races:
Florida President: (95% in)
Trump: 49.6%
Clinton: 48.9%

Wisconsin Senate: (20% in)
Feingold: 50.7%
Johnson: 49.1%

Louisiana Senate (Jungle, 52% in)
Boustany: 40%
Campbell: 22%
Fleming: 20%
Cao: 19%

Pennsylvania Attorney General (81% in)
Rafferty (R): 50.1%
Shapiro (D): 49.8%

Cooper: The AG race in PA will be critical, as it may give us an idea on how the Presidential race goes, in addition to those results. In the Louisiana Senate race, we project Boustany, the establishment favorite, comes in first. The other runoff spot is up for grabs. According to exit polls, some Democratic voters chose Boustany or Cao over Campbell, probably preferring either Fleming, the Tea Party favorite. The fields for both parties were wider, but eventually narrowed.

King: We are about to make a major projection in a key Senate race. (Any guesses as to which one?)

[libertpaulian]

TN Volunteer's favorite state?

[Heisenberg]

Blitzer: Major projection: Maggie Hassan defeats Kelly Ayotte in the New Hampshire Senate race. (Congrats libertpaulian for correctly guessing the state!) This is the first Democratic pickup of a Senate seat tonight.

King: This is critical in the Democrats' attempt to retake take the Senate. They blew two opportunities in Florida and Pennsylvania by nominating fire-breathing leftist Alan Grayson and the little-known Katie McGinty. The Democratic establishment basically wrote of those two races by September, and poured a lot of money to in NH, WI, OH, NV, and AZ. Winning all those gets them at 51 (assuming they win IL, and hold MD, which took us longer to project than we thought.)

Blitzer: However, Strickland's campaign collapsed in the final weeks, and Portman has won and declared victory. They also appear to be getting caught off-guard in Illinois, where Kirk is putting up a fight stronger than expected.

Cooper: He's racking up big margins in the rural areas, and in Lake County, his home county, where his coattails pulled fellow Republican Bob Dold in IL-10 to victory. But as more numbers come in from Cook County, we'll see what the margin is then.

[libertpaulian]

Can't wait to see how Trump is doing in FL, OH, and PA!

[libertpaulian]

***cough***

[Heisenberg]

Libertpaulian, and anybody waiting, sorry for the delay. I was busier today, but thanks for your patience.

Blitzer: It is 10 PM Easterm. Here are our new projections:

Trump wins Montana, Wyoming, Utah and Idaho, for a total of 16 electoral votes.
Clinton wins New Mexico, Oregon, and Washington, for a total of 24 electoral votes. Nevada and Arizona are too close to call.

In the Senate races, we project Republicans Mike Crapo and Mike Lee win reelection, as does Democrat Ron Wyden. In the Governor races, we project Democrats Kate Brown and Jay Inslee win in Oregon and Washington, respectively. The Senate race in Nevada and the Governor race in Montana both remain too close to call.

King: Now, time for long-awaited updates in key states:

Florida (99% in)
Trump: 49.99% (+42,650 votes)
Clinton: 49.48%

Pennsylvania (88% in)
Clinton: 49.1% (+10,128)
Trump: 48.9%

Virginia (94% in)
Trump: 50.8%
Clinton: 48.9%

Ohio (86% in)
Trump: 49.8% (+9,567)
Clinton: 49.6%

Wisconsin (42% in)
Trump: 49.6% (+238)
Clinton: 49.5%

Minnesota (37% in)
Clinton: 50.1%
Trump: 49.5%

Colorado (15% in)
Trump: 50%
Clinton: 48.5%

And a few downballot races:
Pennsylvania AG (89% in)
Rafferty: 50.05% (+6,189)
Shapiro: 49.95%

Illinois Senate (75% in)
Duckworth: 49.8% (+493)
Kirk: 49.7%

Wisconsin Senate (42% in)
Feingold: 51%
Johnson: 48%

Colorado Senate (18% in)
Keyser: 49.5%
Bennet: 48.9%

Cooper: Trump is doing great in Virginia. Lower Black turnout, and a strong showing in the southern and western parts of the state offset the deficit in the northern part. Virginia truly remains a swing state. If Trump can hold the margin in Florida, he will win the state without a recount. But in Pennsylvania, we're getting a lot of numbers in from Central Philadelphia precincts, and Clinton has taken the lead. The Republican is just ahead in the two-way Attorney General race, though. Maybe this means third party/write-in votes may play the spoiler role for Trump? Or maybe not.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

I can hear IceSpear crying at those numbers lol.

[Heisenberg]

Late Night Update: 10:30 PM
Blitzer: Several more projections to make:
Trump wins Virginia and Florida by razor thin margins, barely avoiding a recount in the latter. Clinton has countered this by just squeaking by in Pennsylvania, even as Republican John Rafferty wins the Attorney General race by about 5000 votes on the first count. We also project that Clinton has also won Minnesota, and Trump has won Arizona.
King: Here is the current map.

Trump: 245 EV
Clinton: 182 EV
Too close to call: 49 EV
Polls still open: 62 EV

Cooper: We can assume Trump wins AK, and Clinton wins CA and HI. That would narrow Trump's lead to 247-241. Ohio and Wisconsin are must wins for either side, it looks, they are the two largest states yet to be called.

Blitzer: We'll be back soon to discuss uncalled downballot races.

[tmthforu94]

Really enjoying this!

[Heisenberg]

Blitzer: Welcome back. Thanks for watching, it is now time for a few updates. We project that Clinton will carry Nevada's six electoral votes. We can also project that John McCain has won reelection in Arizona, and Russ Feingold has unseated Ron Johnson in a rematch, giving Democrats their second Senate pickup of the night. The Senate races in Illinois, Colorado, and Nevada remain too close to call. Later, John Thune will briefly join us to discuss how the night went so well for his party in terms of Senate races.

King: Here are the critical uncalled races:
Iowa (69% in)
Trump: 49.1%
Clinton: 48%

Wisconsin (54% in)
Clinton: 49.7%
Trump: 49.4%

Ohio (91% in)
Trump: 49.70% (+3100)
Clinton: 49.65%

Colorado (40% in)
Clinton: 49%
Trump: 48%

Colorado Senate (39% in)
Bennet: 49.2%
Keyser: 48.7%

Nevada Senate:
Heck: 48.5%
Cortez-Masto: 47%

Illinois Senate (87% in)
Duckworth: 49.89% (+4025 votes)
Kirk: 49.81%

Montana Governor (25% in)
Gianforte: 49.1%
Bullock: 48.9%

Cooper:  It is apparent that the dynamics of the race in the East and in the West are very different. Trump made inroads in the Midwest, but it did not seem to be enough to carry any states that Obama won, except maybe for Iowa and Ohio (both are still uncalled), which is no surprise given how white the former is, and the latter of course is THE perennial swing state. Clinton choosing Brown probably hindered Trump's ability to make inroads there. He also swept the South, including Virginia and Florida, where Black turnout dropped, and he racked up large numbers in the most conservative parts of the state. Gingrich's presence on the ticket probably helped.

King: Trump is also doing okay with Cuban-Americans, he is still winning them in Florida. Mexican-Americans, not at all. He's lucky that far fewer turned out in Arizona than Clinton had hoped, but they really sunk him in New Mexico and Nevada, and may sink him in Colorado. Of course, in California, I hear they turned out in hordes.

Blitzer: We'll see the results there in a little less than half an hour. Stay with us, we'll be right back, and Senator Thune will be speaking with us.

[libertpaulian]

Any Ohio totals?

[Heisenberg]

Any Ohio totals?

Whoops. Left those out by accident. Here they are (10:30 PM Eastern)
Ohio (91% in)
Trump: 49.70% (+3100)
Clinton: 49.65%

[libertpaulian]

I could actually see this playing out in real life.

[Heisenberg]

Cooper: Welcome back to CNN's election night coverage. Here is Senator John Thune (R-SD), the chairman of the a Senate Republican Conference.

Thune: Good evening Anderson Cooper. Thank you for having me on CNN tonight.

Cooper: We are happy to have you on our network Senator Thune. How do you feel about your patry's gains tonight? I bet you're really happy. How did this happen?

Thune: Well, we knew the math was not on our side. We had to defend 24 seats, as opposed to the Democrats' 10, so we knew it would be an uphill battle. But we recruited strong candidates, and ran great campaigns. I'd really like to thank Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), the chairman of the NRSC for doing a great job helping with the campaigns.

Cooper: Do you also think there was a lot of luck involved?

Thune: What kind of luck?

Cooper: I mean, do you think you guys got lucky that the Democrats fielded several weak candidates?

Thune: That was part of it. I was watching your coverage of the elections earlier and I heard you guys mention that Democrats blew two golden opportunities in Florida and Pennsylvania. We were scared for a while that we would nominate Carlos Beruff in Florida, the only Republican Grayson was beating in hypothetical polls. But after Marco Rubio entered the race he instantly became the favorite and handily defeated Beruff in the primary.

Cooper: I can only imagine how entertaining a Beruff-Grayson debate would have been.

Thune: It would have been a lot of fun to watch the two firebrands attack each other. But at the same time it would be scary to know that one of the two would serve alongside me in the Senate.

Cooper: How do you feel about Republicans maintaining the Senate majority?

Thune: We held key seats in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. We did lose New Hampshire and Wisconsin, though. And while I'd love to see Mark Kirk reelected, I think he'll narrowly lose. But I'm also confident Joe Heck will pick up the open seat in Nevada, which will offset the loss in Illinois. I don't anticipate any other seats will change parties.

Cooper: Your predictions sound pretty good. Republicans might pick up Colorado, and then Louisiana has the interesting jungle primary, followed by a runoff, and anything can happen.

Thune: Keyser has been polling behind Bennet, and the numbers coming in aren't looking good for him, but I still hope he can pull an upset. He's doing great considering he had very little recognition until just under a year ago. I think he'll be Senator someday, though. He sounds ambitious and I expect him to make future runs for office. And I'm not worried about Louisiana at all. The Louisiana GOP learned their lesson last year.

Cooper: The numbers coming in are looking very good for Heck. To change the topic a bit, what do you think of the way the governor races are going?

Thune: I've been following the Senate races more, but I think math was a major part. Many seats were not competitive, but there were open seats held by Democrats in Missouri and West Virginia, and both were picked up by the GOP. Our dream candidates in Vermont and New Hampshire ran and picked up both of the open, Democrat-held seats, although the latter looks like a write-in candidate spoiled it.

Cooper: Ha ha, yes. That was a big shock. The final results are in, and Sununu got 48%, Van Ostern 45%, and Shaheen 7%. According to exit polls, most Shaheen write in voters were women, interestingly.

Thune: Were a lot of women in New Hampshire angry or what?

Cooper: I'm really not sure.

Thune: Whatever it is, it clearly helped Sununu. Anyway, thank you Anderson Cooper for interviewing me! It was nice talking to you.

Cooper: Thank you Senator Thune for speaking with us on CNN. Have a good evening.

Thune: You too.

Blitzer: It is now 11 PM Eastern, and we have several major projections to make. We project that Hillary Clinton wins California, Hawaii and Wisconsin. We project that Trump carries Alaska. In the Senate, we project that Tammy Duckworth narrowly beats Mark Kirk, giving Democrats a third pickup. We project Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Brian Schatz (D-HI) both get reelected. The Senate races in Colorado and Nevada remain too close to call. This means the Senate balance stands at 50R, 47D*. The only path Democrats have to winning the majority is by winning both NV and CO, then hoping Campbell makes the runoff in Louisiana and wins, and win the presidency. Possible, but highly unlikely.

King: Here is the current electoral college map.

Clinton: 257 EV
Trump: 248 EV
Too close to call: 33 EV
If Clinton carries Ohio, she wins. Trump needs to win Ohio, and either of the other two uncalled states.

*California went into a runoff between Demcorats KamalanHarris and Lorretta Sanchez. Therefore, the seat stays Democratic regardless of which one wins.

[Heisenberg]

King: Good evening everyone! Welcome back, here are the updated numbers for the critical uncalled races:
Iowa (78% in)
Trump: 49.0%
Clinton: 48.8%

Ohio (96% in)
Trump: 49.75% (+4600)
Clinton: 49.60%

Colorado (51% in)
Clinton: 49.2%
Trump: 47.5%

Colorado Senate (50% in)
Bennet: 49.4%
Keyser: 47.1%

Blitzer: We have two new projections to make in the Senate races:

Nevada Senate (51% in)
Heck: 48.3% WINNER
Cortez-Masto: 47.2%

Cooper: Most numbers from Las Vegas proper are in, and Heck did not get swamped badly. He did well in his hometown of Henderson, and the southern tip of Clark County. Washoe County (Reno) was about evenly split, and most numbers yet to come in are from the very conservative rural parts of the state, and Republican-leaning precincts in Clark County.

Blitzer: Republicans pick up their first Senate seat of the night, and with 51 seats, they will keep the majority. But this pickup is cancelled out by a loss in Illinois.

Illinois Senate (99.9% in)
Duckworth: 49.91% (+6123 votes) WINNER
Kirk: 49.78%

It is mathematically impossible for Kirk to catch up, but he did outperform expectations.

And the last uncalled governor race.

Montana Governor (25% in)
Gianforte: 49.1%
Bullock: 48.9%

Cooper: In the year of the outsider, Gianforte has really been giving Bullock a run for his money.

King: I know Trump had campaigned with Gianforte a bit. Trump won Montana, let's see if his coattails can carry Gianforte over the top. Attorney General Tim Fox has won reelection, and Corey Stapleton won the office of Secretary of State. Both are considered rising stars in Montana Republican politics.

Cooper: Gianforte ran a good campaign on business, growing the economy, and bringing high-paying jobs in the state. He may actually break 12 years of Democratic control of the Montana governorship.

King: On to the Louisiana Senate race, here are the current numbers:

Louisiana Senate (Jungle, 87% in)
Boustany: 39%
Campbell: 21%
Cao: 20%
Fleming: 18%

It's a three way battle to see who will face Boustany in the runoff next month.
And in California, the Democrat vs. Democrat runoff:
California Senate Runoff (36% in)
Harris: 52%
Sanchez: 48%

Harris has been polling ahead, but Sanchez is still close. Interestingly, Republican turnout in California appears to be low. It looks like there is a protest against the blanket primary system, and the way the presidential election is done. It also appears to be hurting Republicans in House races.

Blitzer: Alright, we can project that Hillary Clinton has won the popular vote. This is no surprise, she is winning California by an extremely large margin, with spiked Hispanic turnout, the liberal lean of the state, and low Republican turnout. And three states Trump won, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida were all within 2%.

Cooper: We may be in for a lot of protests if Trump wins the presidency without carrying the popular vote like 2000.

King: Let's see what happens in Ohio. It would be interesting to see reforms in the electoral system, but I can't see it happening. Texas and California pretty much cancel each other out in terms of "wasted votes," but the latter is larger. There are also a lot of small states that are solidly Republican.

Blitzer: We'll be back momentarily, when we look at the critical state of Ohio.

[tmthforu94]

Oh boy, this is getting good!

[SATW]

good stuff!

[Heisenberg]

House Race Summary
Blitzer: We have already projected that Republicans keep control of the House, but some seats changed parties. These are all the party changes:
Republicans Gain 6 Seats
FL-02
FL-18
AZ-01
NY-03
CA-07
NE-02

Democrats gain 16 seats (Net gain of 10)
NH-01
NY-22
NY-24
FL-10
FL-13
FL-26
TX-23
MN-02
AZ-02
VA-04
NV-04
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39
NJ-05
Democrats do win the total popular vote (narrowly), but Republicans win it without California. This is similar to 2012. The Democcratc gains tonight practically cancel out those Republicans made in 2014.

Cooper: All but two of the seats Republcqns picked up were open seats. Don Bacon did a great job of narrowly ousting freshman Democrat Brad Ashford. And Republicans defeated the troubled Ami Bera.

King: They did lose several Hispanic-heavy districts, particularly in California. But Republicans did a great job at defending many swing-seat incumbents, like Blum and Young in Iowa. Republicans have the geography advantage, as well as the fact that many had the incumbency advantage.

Blitzer: We'll be back soon and provide updates in Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado.

[libertpaulian]

How much did the Massholes turn out for Hillary to Stop Trump?

[Heisenberg]

Excellent.

I could actually see this playing out in real life.

Btw: How much did Frank Guinta lose by? lol

In this timeline, Carol Shea-Porter got 54% to Guinta's 44%. That's worse than 2012, when Guinta lost 50-46. Also, did you see Anderson Cooper's interview with John Thune? I think you'll like it (one line in particular, you'll know which one.)

How much did the Massholes turn out for Hillary to Stop Trump?

Clinton won Massachusetts 63-35, in this timeline.

[libertpaulian]

I was referring to Massholes who live in the NH suburbs.  They're part of the reason for NH's Dem trend.

[Heisenberg]

I was referring to Massholes who live in the NH suburbs.  They're part of the reason for NH's Dem trend.

Those definitely helped Clinton, Hassan, and Shea-Porter win.

[Heisenberg]

Blitzer: Welcome back, we have a few updates.
Clinton leads Iowa for the first time as numbers from Des Moines and more liberal areas come in. Still possible for Trump to catch up.
Iowa (88% in)
Clinton: 49.3%
Trump: 48.9%

Colorado (68% in)
Clinton: 49.1%
Trump: 48.4%

Also in Colorado, we project that Michael Bennet (D) wins reelection.


Montana Governor (65% in)
Gianforte: 49.21%
Bullock: 48.88%

And, the moment we've all been waiting for:

Ohio (99% in)
Trump: 49.75% WINNER (+4635)
Clinton: 49.64%

Cooper: So much for Senator Brown carrying Ohio for Clinton.


King: With Trump winning Ohio, here's the map:

Trump: 266 EV
Clinton: 257 EV
Too close to call: 15 EV

King: Don't forget, here are the numbers so far in the California Senate race completely irrelevant to Senate control:
California Senate Runoff (56% in)
Harris: 53%
Sanchez: 47%

King: Harris is pulling away, but this is extremely unpredictable since it's a statewide race between two Democrats.

Cooper: That appears to have lowered Republican turnout, which seems to have sunk several Roublican House candidates in vulnerable districts, combined with higher Hispanic anti-Trump turnout.

Blitzer: Stay with us, we'll be back shortly.

[tmthforu94]

The suspense!

My prediction: Iowa goes TRUMP, Colorado goes Clinton. Colorado usually trends Democratic throughout the night, so not great news for TRUMP that he's already losing.

Update soon!