Sacrificial lambs that ended up winning the election

[The Arizonan]

What are some good examples of sacrificial lambs that ended up victorious?

How about Scott Brown? Chris Coons (before Mike Castle lost the primary)? Mark Begich?

[This account no longer in use.]

Joe Donnelly.

[Heisenberg]

Joe Donnelly.

I was literally thinking of him when I read the article, then I scroll down and see you beat me to naming him. Bill Redmond in the 1997 special election for a NM-03 comes to mind. The Democratic candidate was unpopular, but expected to win, until the Green party candidate had an unexpected surge just before the election, and siphoned off enough votes to play the spoiler effect and hand Redmond victory. He ran for reelection to a full term, but lost to Tom Udall. Redmond is the only Republican to ever represent NM-03. And the district has become so Democratic owning that after Redmond lost reelection, Republicans have never really made serious attempts to win back the seat.

[The Arizonan]

Joe Donnelly.

I didn't think of this as an example because Democrats occasionally get lucky with Indiana senate races and Richard Mourdock never had a lock on the election.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Walt Minnick, the guy who won ID-01 in the 2008 wave.

[This account no longer in use.]

Joe Donnelly.

I didn't think of this as an example because Democrats occasionally get lucky with Indiana senate races and Richard Mourdock never had a lock on the election.

You are right, actually. Even before Mourdock's gaffe, Indiana was rated as a toss-up by Sabato. In the same cycle, however, Claire McCaskill was completely done for before Akin's comments, for all intents and purposes.

[Indy Texas]

Blake Farenthold (R-TX). He was basically a trust fund baby who self-funded his 2010 campaign because the state/national party didn't seriously contest the district.

And since he won in a redistricting year, the state legislature promptly reconfigured his district into a safe R seat and he's not going anywhere unless he gets primaried for some reason.

[Mr. Smith]

Joni Ernst comes to mind, she really shouldn't have won Iowa at all...Anyone besides Bruce Failey would've won that one easily...who to be fair also seemed to get tossed out pretty quickly.

[publicunofficial]

Chris Coons is the best answer. Was supposed to lose in a landslide to Mike Castle, ended up facing Christine "Not a Witch" O'Donnell.

[Miles]

Chip Cravaack. The last time Oberstar was held under 60% was the year I was born (1992).

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Joe Biden is the obvious answer.

He was literally the only one Democrat in the whole state who wanted to run against Caleb Boggs. His campaign has almost no money and during the summer he trailed Boggs by almost 30%

[Heisenberg]

Joe Donnelly.

I didn't think of this as an example because Democrats occasionally get lucky with Indiana senate races and Richard Mourdock never had a lock on the election.

You are right, actually. Even before Mourdock's gaffe, Indiana was rated as a toss-up by Sabato. In the same cycle, however, Claire McCaskill was completely done for before Akin's comments, for all intents and purposes.

Donnelly was not a sacrificial lamb against Mourdock, but against Lugar I think he would have been. I think Lugar would've been heavily favored against Donnelly. When Lugar was defeated in the primary, the IN Senate race became a battleground. Mourdock really thought he could win, but we all know how that went.

[IceSpear]

Some of the mentions in this thread don't really fit. Coons was the underdog against Castle, but he still had a chance. It was Delaware after all. Begich v. Stevens was competitive from the very beginning. Donnelly wasn't a sacrificial lamb. The only reason he ran was because he knew Lugar had a good chance of losing the primary. Minnick wasn't either. The incumbent, Bill Sali, only won by 5 points in 2006 and Dems smelled blood in the water for 2008. Ernst wasn't expected to win, but she had a chance. A nonincumbent in a swing state will rarely be a lock.

Scott Brown, Farenthold, and Cravaack fit here. I'd also add: Carol Shea-Porter (2006), Jim Webb (until Macaca Allen was seen as a lock), Larry Hogan, John Bel Edwards.

[Xing]

If we're talking about the House as well, how about Crescent Hardy?

[publicunofficial]

There's also a long list of Congressman who were basically Some Dudes who lucked into running against an incumbent that suffered a major scandal during the campaign.

Chris Smith, Michael P. Flanagan, Joseph Cao, Tim Mahoney, ect.


There's also a handful of the 2006/2010 freshman class that were longshots swept in by a wave. Chip Cravaak, Nancy Boyda, Dave Loebsack. My favorite is Carol Shea-Porter, who Howard Dean couldn't even remember the name of on Election night.

[Heisenberg]

If we're talking about the House as well, how about Crescent Hardy?

Well, his district is a new one created after 2010 redistricting, is considered a swing district (even though Obama won its areas both times), and Nevada is a Republican-leaning state in midterms. Republicans saw it as ripe pickup ground if Sandoval, who is very popular, could drive the Republican candidate to victory. Different from Farenthold and Cravaack, who knocked off entrenched, longtime incumbents.

[This account no longer in use.]

Don't be silly, guys. CSP's seat was always Safe D; we all knew the angry NH women would turn out for her.

[publicunofficial]

Don't be silly, guys. CSP's seat was always Safe D; we all knew the angry NH women would turn out for her.

Honestly it's amazing male Republicans are competitive in New Hampshire at all.

[IceSpear]

Don't be silly, guys. CSP's seat was always Safe D; we all knew the angry NH women would turn out for her.

Carol Shea-Porter's victory in 2006 was actually the first victory of the angry NH women. It emboldened them to the point where they now completely control the state. What a difference a decade makes.

[Bojack Horseman]

Spencer Abraham in 1994

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Don't be silly, guys. CSP's seat was always Safe D; we all knew the angry NH women would turn out for her.

Carol Shea-Porter's victory in 2006 was actually the first victory of the angry NH women. It emboldened them to the point where they now completely control the state. What a difference a decade makes.

Except they had two collective napping breaks in 2010 and 2024. They tend to get most angry in presidential years.

[JMT]

Many of you already mentioned the candidates that immediately came to mind, but one I thought of was Byron Mallott in Alaska. The Alaska Governor race wasn't expected to be competitive. Parnell was expected to cruise to reelection, until Bill Walker (an independent) and Byron Mallott (the Democratic nominee for Governor that same year) formed a unity ticket, with Walker being the "de-facto" Democratic nominee, despite still being pretty conservative. So Mallott, while running for governor, could be considered a sacrificial lamb, and he ended up winning, even though it wasn't the office he originally sought (he was elected lieutenant governor). Mallott still ended up in office when many wouldn't have expected him to.  

[Asian Nazi]

Charles Djou and Joseph Cao.  In fact my people seem good at this.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Guy Hunt was expected to be just another Republican sacrificial lamb in 1986 Alabama gubernatorial election, yet through a weird turn of events (disputed Democratic primary election, party certifying candidate who came in second and the backlash) he got elected.

[Skye]

Joseph Cao is the only answer.