California Democratic primary county predictions

[Holmes]

The primary isn't for a little under 3 weeks, but we can always predict how we think it'll go down. With how Oregon, Nevada and Arizona have voted, I think I can paint a decent picture of how it might go down.



There's basically a corridor in the central coast that I'm a little unsure of, though. I feel like San Luis Obispo, Monterey, Santa Clara, Alameda and Contra Costa can go either way. Berkeley will come in strong for Sanders, for example, but Clinton is favored in Oakland, and Santa Clara's demographics would naturally favor Clinton, but I'm not fully confident about the asian vote, and maybe the tech industry might push it towards Sanders instead. Still, this is what I'm predicting, with a modest 8%-ish victory for Clinton.

[This account no longer in use.]

Only one correct answer:

[RosettaStoned]

  Bernie Sanders is going to win Santa Barbara County by a very comfortable margin. 

[Mr. Smith]

  Bernie Sanders is going to win Santa Barbara County by a very comfortable margin. 

And probably Monterey as well.

San Mateo will go for Clinton easily

Del Norte and Sutter will be the tricky ones since they tend to be least predictable. And I wouldn't put Alpine or Mono out of reach for Clinton considering the gay population there.

I really wish that County Map feature worked right now.

[catographer]

Living in the Bay Area, I can tell you that it'll be a battleground, but Clinton should pull out a win here (in most counties, especially the South and East bay, as well as the Peninsula). She won comfortably (under 10% tho) carrying most Bay Area counties along with SoCal and the Central Valley in '08, and I can see her repeating that for the most part while improving a tad in the Bay Area and SoCal and doing worse in NorCal.

[Sbane]

I agree that the Bay Area will be split. Bernie wins San Francisco, Sonoma, Napa and Santa Cruz counties but loses the rest of them. I could see Contra Costa and Marin voting for Bernie but in any case it will be close in those two counties. San Mateo and Alameda will be close but I'm fairly confident Hillary wins both. She will very likely win Santa Clara County.

She sweeps the San Joaquin Valley but Bernie sweeps the mountains and the rural north. As far as the Central Coast goes, Monterey County I am not too sure about. It has a lot of Hispanics but the white population there is Democratic and will be very pro-Bernie. He wins San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara, though Santa Barbara will be close.

Hillary sweeps Southern California and wins the state comfortably. The only ones that might be close are Ventura, Orange and San Diego but I'm fairly certain Hillary wins all three.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Democrats: Bernie in Green, Hillary in Red

Hillary will win by 4-7%

From a few weeks ago. I may change it if I see any more regional polling.