New Jersey: Quinnipiac 5/10-5/16, 1989 RV. Hillary 45% | TRUMP 38%

[StatesPoll]

https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/nj/nj05192016_Nwh73tr.pdf

kind of a Tight race in Blue States.

1. Results of the Election 2012 in New Jersey
Obama(D) 58.38% | Romney ® 40.59%  Spreads: Obama +17.79%

2. New Jersey: Quinnipiac 5/10-5/16, 1989 RV. Hillary 45% | TRUMP 38%
Spreads: Hillary +7%

3. New Jersey could be a fightable states for TRUMP in 2016.  if he clear these conditions.

1) if TRUMP unifies the Party fully, And gets sth like 90% support of the Republican
(Q-Poll 5/10-5/16 it was, Republican: TRUMP got 78%, Hillary got 4%)
2) if TRUMP attracts the Reagan Democrats, And then gets sth like 15%ish of the Democrats
(Q-Poll 5/10-5/16 it was, Democrats: TRUMP got 7%, Hillary got 84%)
3) if TRUMP beat Hillary big of the Independents, sth like 55-45
(Q-Poll 5/10-5/16 it was, Democrats: TRUMP got 39%, Hillary got 41%)

to make it He needs to increase +12% of the Rep, +8% of the Dem, +16% of the Independents.

Then He could win the New Jersey.

20%(REP) x 90% + 33%(DEM) x 15% + 47%(Ind) x 55% =
about 49%ish(which would be the winning numbers)

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats:
Clinton 84%
Trump 7%

Republicans:
Trump 78%
Clinton 4%

Independent:
Clinton 41%
Trump 39%

Another poll in which is Trump is below 80% among Republicans, yet remains in the game because he’s competitive with Indies.

[Fusionmunster]

NJ will not be competitive, sorry to dissapoint.

[standwrand]

NJ will not be competitive, sorry to dissapoint.

[henster]

Is there anywhere Hillary is liked? She's -18 in a state Obama won by 18 points.

[Xing]

Nope, not happening. Trump will lose NJ by double digits.

[Ebsy]

What sort of janky partisan composition does this poll have?

[Angrie]

Maybe this will make Trump think that NJ is close enough that he can win it if he picks Christie as his VP. He'll go all in on the NY area loudmouth persona. Then he picks Christie as his VP, which causes him to lose it by much more.

[Eraserhead]

Bernie is +19.

[Seriously?]

Typical New Jersey fools gold. Just starting early this cycle.

If Trump wins NJ, it will be a landslide.

[Fusionmunster]

Bernie is +19.

When the dems unify, it'll probably be what Hillarys winning margin is in NJ.

[libertpaulian]

Typical New Jersey fools gold. Just starting early this cycle.

If Trump wins NJ, it will be a landslide.

I thought PA was the GOP's fools gold.

[henster]

Bernie is +19.

When the dems unify, it'll probably be what Hillarys winning margin is in NJ.

Most of Bernie's voters are independents they are not loyal to the party and have no reason to unify.

[Ronnie]

Nope, not happening. Trump will lose NJ by double digits.

It's a little hard to believe that Bush only lost the state by 6 points, huh?  Trump will lose by double digits, but I think it's possible he'll improve on Romney's pathetic numbers in the state.

[Seriously?]

Typical New Jersey fools gold. Just starting early this cycle.

If Trump wins NJ, it will be a landslide.

I thought PA was the GOP's fools gold.

They both are. You get that one or two polls suggesting it's competitive. Until it isn't. Every cycle. Never fails.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes Jersey will be close. But Kerry won it by six that's as close as its gotton.

[President Johnson]

TRUMP may come in within single digits.

[This account no longer in use.]

MarkBGraham and StatesPoll both return at the same time. We truly are blessed.

[IceSpear]

Junk poll!

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Hah, good one. Maybe he'll lose by 13-14 instead of 18 this time.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

New Jersey is one of few northeastern states where the Republicans actually have a respectably consistent floor.  Otherwise, it's fool's gold.

[Wiz in Wis]

Bernie is +19.

When the dems unify, it'll probably be what Hillarys winning margin is in NJ.

Most of Bernie's voters are independents they are not loyal to the party and have no reason to unify.

Henster, May 2016 "Bernie's Base Hates Hillary, Because Reasons" Journal of Crap I Pulled Out of My Ass, Vol 12, Issue 5. Pg. 24.

[bumpercrop]

Another poll where Trump can't poll above the high 30s. SAD!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Many seem to have forgotten how NJ is notorious for having lots of undecided voters who break heavily for the Democrat at the last minute.

[Seriously?]

Nope, not happening. Trump will lose NJ by double digits.

Trump should lose NJ, but my guess is that it's high single digits as opposed to double-digits. He is an ideal Republican candidate for that state (even though that state is hopeless) -- more liberal on social issues, more conservative on fiscal issues.

Plus the neighbor factor should come into play. He is very well known in that state.