Could the Sandernistas hand Donald Trump the White House?

[ag]

They, definitely, want it. They might be able to do it.

[ag]

Why does anyone think it's likelier that Sanders people will split the Democracts than Anti-Trump people will split the Republicans?

Both will happen, to an extent. Ideologically, many of the sanderistas are a lot closer to Trump than they are to any conventional Democrat, including Hillary Clinton (or, for that matter, Barack Obama).

[ag]

Why does anyone think it's likelier that Sanders people will split the Democracts than Anti-Trump people will split the Republicans?

Both will happen, to an extent. Ideologically, many of the sanderistas are a lot closer to Trump than they are to any conventional Democrat, including Hillary Clinton (or, for that matter, Barack Obama).

The horseshoe theory is trash.

It is not the horseshoe. Ideological spectrum is not unidimensional. Typically, in most countries 2 to 3 dimensions are salient, but even those are kind of "suspended" (mathematical term would be "embedded") in a large-dimensional space of possible policies - and they can rotate in funny ways. For the last few electoral cycles, salient US dimensions remained fairly constant. However, Trump and Sanders, it seems, have managed to change which issues are salient. Once this happened, it turns out, many of the sanderistas literally project in the same spot with the trumpistas - and both are far away from the presumptive Democratic nominee.

[ag]

You're operating on one strange political spectrum there, ag.

I am just an outside observer. I cannot do anything to choose which issues in US politics are salient. It is up to the actual players: Trump, Sanders, Clinton, and others.

[ag]

It is not the horseshoe. Ideological spectrum is not unidimensional. Typically, in most countries 2 to 3 dimensions are salient, but even those are kind of "suspended" (mathematical term would be "embedded") in a large-dimensional space of possible policies - and they can rotate in funny ways. For the last few electoral cycles, salient US dimensions remained fairly constant. However, Trump and Sanders, it seems, have managed to change which issues are salient. Once this happened, it turns out, many of the sanderistas literally project in the same spot with the trumpistas - and both are far away from the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Well put. I agree with you.

And I hate you.