Could the Sandernistas hand Donald Trump the White House?

[Dereich]

Why does anyone think it's likelier that Sanders people will split the Democracts than Anti-Trump people will split the Republicans? Hillary is about as conventional Democrat as you can get and Bernie people are almost exclusively people who always vote for Democrats. Trump came and hostilely took over his party leaving dozens of burnt bridges in his wake. I'd think it's still pretty clearly the case that the GOP primary was more divisive and acrimonious all around than the Democratic one; remember when nobody watched the Democratic debates because they were too civil?

The yes argument to the question seems loaded with present bias.

[Dereich]

Why does anyone think it's likelier that Sanders people will split the Democracts than Anti-Trump people will split the Republicans? Hillary is about as conventional Democrat as you can get and Bernie people are almost exclusively people who always vote for Democrats. Trump came and hostilely took over his party leaving dozens of burnt bridges in his wake. I'd think it's still pretty clearly the case that the GOP primary was more divisive and acrimonious all around than the Democratic one; remember when nobody watched the Democratic debates because they were too civil?

The yes argument to the question seems loaded with present bias.

The GOP base is unified. Only the establishment circles were truly split, and those are well in the minority - well represented here on Atlas.

Exactly what I'm saying. The GOP is "unified" even though the gap between Trump and the Anti-Trumps was always larger than that between Hillary and Bernie. There is no reason to think the Democrats won't "unify" even faster or more thoroughly once the primary ends.

[Dereich]

Why does anyone think it's likelier that Sanders people will split the Democracts than Anti-Trump people will split the Republicans?

Both will happen, to an extent. Ideologically, many of the sanderistas are a lot closer to Trump than they are to any conventional Democrat, including Hillary Clinton (or, for that matter, Barack Obama).

Maybe they are ideologically closer to Trump if you weigh ideology like you do; that doesn't mean they'd vote for Trump. There is just as much an identity politics factor that would keep young white BernieBros away from Trump as would keep ideologically close blacks from voting for him too. Peer pressure and group identification will pull them grumbling into line just as easily as Pubs were pulled to Trump.