New Jersey goes Republican?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump is certainly an unconventional Republican candidate, but as we can see with overtures he's been making lately, ultimately he is going to represent the Republican Party.  And we're now seeing that in national polls where Republicans have consolidated.

I think Latino voters will be extra motivated to vote against Trump.  But even if they aren't, even if they turnout and vote at normal rates for Hillary, it's more than enough to keep NJ blue.  

That isn't to say that Trump can't win the overall election; he most certainly can.  It's just to say that he can't win NJ except in a landslide.

I think - and I could be totally wrong - that we're going to see a really weird map.  And that the polls right now are noisy, and things haven't come into focus yet.  I think Trump is going to get stronger in the northeast, weaker in the south, and it's going to be a knockout brawl in the midwest.  Trump isn't going to do a "battleground" strategy, because he'll be on viewscreens EVERYWHERE.  He'll be forcing Hillary to devote time and energy in places no Democrat should have to.

That isn't to say Trump is going to win.  I think he's going to lose.  But it's gonna be weird.  Like Trump winning NJ and losing GA (and the general) kinda weird.

[libertpaulian]

The results for NJ will be close in the sense that it will be close for what a Republican should normally get there.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I suppose it could happen, but Trump has provided so much fodder for Democrat attack ads that he will lose by a landslide or near-landslide.  The polls right now mean nothing.  Clinton will carry every state that's been in the D column since her husband's first election, if only because Trump is a horrible candidate.

[Wisconsin+17]

No.

[YaBoyNY]

ITT: Midwesterners who know nothing about the Northeast saying NJ is gonna be competitive.

lol

[dax00]

Trump's swipe at New Jersey: humiliate Chris Christie as much as possible. If he goes hard on this route, I give Trump's odds at winning NJ 15%.

[Gabagool102]

ITT: Midwesterners who know nothing about the Northeast saying NJ is gonna be competitive.

lol

Yes, Im from the midwest.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

If ever a Republican was going to win NJ in a reasonably close election, it would be 2004, and Bush still lost it by 7 points.

Right now the non-white coalition of voters in NJ is simply too much for a Republican presidential candidate to overcome in a Northern state, where the white vote is competitive.  A Democrat is never going to get 20-25% of the white vote in NJ, which is how Republicans overcome these minority coalitions in the South. 

I suppose it could happen in a 8-10 point Trump blowout where Trumps makes inroads with Latinos, but that just isn't happening.

You're thinking of Trump like he's a Republican.  You're thinking of this like it's an ordinary campaign, where Hillary and the Democrats can target ads at minorities about the terrible things Trump has said and get them to come out and vote against him.  This won't work against Trump.  Trump's campaign is national, it's using the media to his advantage, and it's a totally different thing.  Do not underestimate the way the Trump campaign can manipulate the media and the voting public.

Nothing is off the table.

I agree with this in principle.  Trump is the kind of Republican that could attract the sort of moderate Repubicans and independents of NJ who have been turned off by the religious conservatism and anti-union economics of the national GOP of late.  Trump won't be slinging this in NJ, and there are lots of folks who are LOCAL Republicans in NJ, but who have been deserting the national ticket in varying numbers of late that could be won back by someone like Trump.

I wouldn't bet on Trump carrying NJ, but it COULD happen.  The biggest obstacle he has right now is Christie's unpopularity, which came at the worst possible time for Trump.

[TJ in Oregon]

NJ would be fairly Trumpish in general, but it's also a pretty heavily minority state and one with a large Jewish population. Unless Trump manages to make some major inroads among blacks and Hispanics, it's hard to see him pulling it off.

[they don't love you like i love you]

New Jersey's 2010 Census demographics:

68.6% White American
13.7% African American
0.3% Native American
8.3% Asian American
6.4% other races
2.7% Multiracial American
17.7% of the population were Hispanic or Latino (of any race).

Looking at that, explain how Trump gets to 50%.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Using the demographic calculator, and keeping all non-white democraphics the same, I had to push college educated w whites to 70% Trump and non-college educated to 74% Trump to get New Jersey to flip.

[YaBoyNY]

ITT: Midwesterners who know nothing about the Northeast saying NJ is gonna be competitive.

lol

Yes, Im from the midwest.

I didn't say only Midwesterners who know nothing.

There are idiots in this state too.

[StatesPoll]

New Jersey's 2010 Census demographics:

68.6% White American
13.7% African American
0.3% Native American
8.3% Asian American
6.4% other races
2.7% Multiracial American
17.7% of the population were Hispanic or Latino (of any race).

Looking at that, explain how Trump gets to 50%.

1. TRUMP doesn't need to get 50% to win. 49%ish would be enough.
(Garry Johnson,Jill Stein)

2. Considering turnouts
Election 2016 in NJ: Demographcis would be
White 67% | Black 15% | Hispanic 12% | Asian 5% | Other 1%
(in 2012, ass CNN Exit Poll, it was White 67% | Black 18% | Latino 10% | Asian 3%)
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NJ/president/

But I don't think Turnouts of Black voters would so high like 2012.(Hillary is popular with Black. but not enough to induce massive turnouts of black like Obama)

White 67% x 60.5% = 40.53%
Black 15% x 12% = 1.8%
Hispanic 12% x 35% = 4.2%
Asian 5% x 45% = 2.25%
Other 1% x 35% = 0.35%

Total 49.13%

it's not an easy goal, but not an impossible goal either.
if TRUMP unifies the GOP fully and gets 90% of them.
Attract the Reagan Democrats well and gets 15% of them.
He gets 55%+ of the Independent.

[they don't love you like i love you]

New Jersey's 2010 Census demographics:

68.6% White American
13.7% African American
0.3% Native American
8.3% Asian American
6.4% other races
2.7% Multiracial American
17.7% of the population were Hispanic or Latino (of any race).

Looking at that, explain how Trump gets to 50%.

1. TRUMP doesn't need to get 50% to win. 49%ish would be enough.
(Garry Johnson,Jill Stein)

2. Considering turnouts
Election 2016 in NJ: Demographcis would be
White 67% | Black 15% | Hispanic 12% | Asian 5% | Other 1%
(in 2012, ass CNN Exit Poll, it was White 67% | Black 18% | Latino 10% | Asian 3%)
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NJ/president/

But I don't think Turnouts of Black voters would so high like 2012.(Hillary is popular with Black. but not enough to induce massive turnouts of black like Obama)

White 67% x 60.5% = 40.53%
Black 15% x 12% = 1.8%
Hispanic 12% x 35% = 4.2%
Asian 5% x 45% = 2.25%
Other 1% x 35% = 0.35%

Total 49.13%

it's not an easy goal, but not an impossible goal either.
if TRUMP unifies the GOP fully and gets 90% of them.
Attract the Reagan Democrats well and gets 15% of them.
He gets 55%+ of the Independent.

So, a higher percentage of the white vote than Romney got nationally...in New Jersey. And 35% of Hispanics? Complete wishful thinking.

Also IT'S 2016 THRE IS NO SUCH THING AS "REAGAN DEMOCRATS"

[StatesPoll]

 

So, a higher percentage of the white vote than Romney got nationally...in New Jersey. And 35% of Hispanics? Complete wishful thinking.

Also IT'S 2016 THRE IS NO SUCH THING AS "REAGAN DEMOCRATS"
[/quote]

============================================================

1. This NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll had '12507' Yuge RV.
2016 General Election - Clinton 48%, Trump 45% (NBC News/SurveyMonkey 5/9-5/15)
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/hillary-clinton-calls-trump-s-guns-schools-plan-way-out-n578161

2. at this Poll, Hispanic: Hillary 65% | TRUMP 28% | No Answer 7%
if I convert it without no answer, TRUMP 28 / 93 =  30.1%.

3. So, Once he got 30%ish Hispanic support of the Yuge RV National Poll
why 35% Hispanic Support in NJ is an impossible goal?

[Ljube]

So, a higher percentage of the white vote than Romney got nationally...in New Jersey. And 35% of Hispanics? Complete wishful thinking.

Also IT'S 2016 THRE IS NO SUCH THING AS "REAGAN DEMOCRATS"


============================================================

1. This NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll had '12507' Yuge RV.
2016 General Election - Clinton 48%, Trump 45% (NBC News/SurveyMonkey 5/9-5/15)
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/hillary-clinton-calls-trump-s-guns-schools-plan-way-out-n578161

2. at this Poll, Hispanic: Hillary 65% | TRUMP 28% | No Answer 7%
if I convert it without no answer, TRUMP 28 / 93 =  30.1%.

3. So, Once he got 30%ish Hispanic support of the Yuge RV National Poll
why 35% Hispanic Support in NJ is an impossible goal?

Of course it's not impossible, although it is still wishful at this point.
Trump's problem are the Never Trump Pub Hispanics, who are still not on board.

[Nyvin]

"Reagan Democrats" were mostly Union workers who were socially conservative, like auto manufacturers and stuff.

Those people are either already Republicans or gone,  it's 2016, that well has dried up or been sucked dry.    It's hilarious to think that there are Democrats like that who voted Dem in 2012 but now are going to vote GOP in 2016....yeah right.

[they don't love you like i love you]

So, a higher percentage of the white vote than Romney got nationally...in New Jersey. And 35% of Hispanics? Complete wishful thinking.

Also IT'S 2016 THRE IS NO SUCH THING AS "REAGAN DEMOCRATS"

============================================================

1. This NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll had '12507' Yuge RV.
2016 General Election - Clinton 48%, Trump 45% (NBC News/SurveyMonkey 5/9-5/15)
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/hillary-clinton-calls-trump-s-guns-schools-plan-way-out-n578161

2. at this Poll, Hispanic: Hillary 65% | TRUMP 28% | No Answer 7%
if I convert it without no answer, TRUMP 28 / 93 =  30.1%.

3. So, Once he got 30%ish Hispanic support of the Yuge RV National Poll
why 35% Hispanic Support in NJ is an impossible goal?
[/quote]

The 30% Hispanic number is assuming Hispanics break 50/50, a very naive assumption with Trump's campaign. It also doesn't take into account that Republicans often overpoll with Hispanics because non English speaking ones are very heavily D.

But besides all that even if the number is 30%, why would NJ Hispanics be significantly MORE conservative than nationally? Republican Hispanics are clustered mostly in Florida, Texas and other Southwest states. NJ ones meanwhile are quite urban.

[StatesPoll]

So, a higher percentage of the white vote than Romney got nationally...in New Jersey. And 35% of Hispanics? Complete wishful thinking.

Also IT'S 2016 THRE IS NO SUCH THING AS "REAGAN DEMOCRATS"

============================================================

1. This NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll had '12507' Yuge RV.
2016 General Election - Clinton 48%, Trump 45% (NBC News/SurveyMonkey 5/9-5/15)
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/hillary-clinton-calls-trump-s-guns-schools-plan-way-out-n578161

2. at this Poll, Hispanic: Hillary 65% | TRUMP 28% | No Answer 7%
if I convert it without no answer, TRUMP 28 / 93 =  30.1%.

3. So, Once he got 30%ish Hispanic support of the Yuge RV National Poll
why 35% Hispanic Support in NJ is an impossible goal?

The 30% Hispanic number is assuming Hispanics break 50/50, a very naive assumption with Trump's campaign. It also doesn't take into account that Republicans often overpoll with Hispanics because non English speaking ones are very heavily D.

But besides all that even if the number is 30%, why would NJ Hispanics be significantly MORE conservative than nationally? Republican Hispanics are clustered mostly in Florida, Texas and other Southwest states. NJ ones meanwhile are quite urban.
[/quote]

I think your analysis about it. It does make sense. I admit it.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

The quoting in these past few posts are an absolute catastrophe.

[Wisconsin+17]

Using the demographic calculator, and keeping all non-white democraphics the same, I had to push college educated w whites to 70% Trump and non-college educated to 74% Trump to get New Jersey to flip.

Finally a quote from reason.

[MIKESOWELL]

No. Donald Trump may be a New Englander, but his rhetoric appeals more to the Appalachian/ MidWesterner/Southern middle class white male. I don't see Hillary winning New Jersey by less than 10 points.

[hopper]

NJ-It will probably stay the same as 2012(58-41%) or swing or trend dem very sightly

[Virginiá]

NJ-It will probably stay the same as 2012(58-41%) or swing or trend dem very sightly

The last bastion of Republican majority support in NJ comes from citizens ages 65 and up. All the other age groups are pretty overwhelmingly Democratic (60%+). The voters that are keeping NJ from NY-style blowouts are literally dying off and within 8 - 10 years will no longer influence NJ voting patterns much at all.

I'd say it trends even more Democratic this year.

[Simfan34]

The Cubs are 7 1/2 games ahead in first place.

this isn't the best sporting analogy that you could have used; with the team that the Cubs have they should be winning!  Leicester City winning the premier league however...

Murica.

Actually, I posed the question on Facebook back in December, of which was more likely to happen:
1. Trump wins the GOP nomination
2. Leicester City wins the Premier League

We all had a great laugh at the preposterousness of both.  My Liverpool supporter friends were like, "NO WAY the Foxes even finish top 4, and LFC is going to the Champions League! YNWA!!!!!"

LOL.

Screenshots or GTFO.