If Tim Kaine is selected as Hillary's VP and they win in November...
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:48:34 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  If Tim Kaine is selected as Hillary's VP and they win in November...
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3
Author Topic: If Tim Kaine is selected as Hillary's VP and they win in November...  (Read 4089 times)
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: July 22, 2016, 08:19:55 PM »

Congratulations, future Senator Dave Brat.

That's probably one person that would not win statewide, even in an off-year.

Perhaps. After Scott Brown, 2010, and 2014 midterms I am deeply cynical about elections after a Democrat wins.
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,233
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: July 22, 2016, 09:24:32 PM »

Congratulations, future Senator Dave Brat.

That's probably one person that would not win statewide, even in an off-year.

Perhaps. After Scott Brown, 2010, and 2014 midterms I am deeply cynical about elections after a Democrat wins.

Same, but VA Democrats won't get caught napping like MA Democrats. They are surprisingly competent. Plus, until Republicans find a way to stop bleeding in NOVA, they just won't be winning any statewide elections.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: July 22, 2016, 10:03:03 PM »

Republicans easily win Virginia in off years. Just ask Gov. Cuccinelli and Sen. Gillespie.
Logged
Heisenberg
SecureAmerica
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,110
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: July 22, 2016, 10:55:11 PM »

Republicans easily win Virginia in off years. Just ask Gov. Cuccinelli and Sen. Gillespie.
Bolling could have beat McAuliffe, Cooch is just too conservative to run statewide (in 2009 he won with McDonnell's coattails, and NOVA has grown since). Gillespie was practically ignored and everyone was shocked to see him overperform polling. People expected Warner to win in a landslide like in 2008, but if the NRSC knew Gillespie was secretly campaigning strong, they could have helped give him the final push.
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,233
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: July 22, 2016, 11:04:39 PM »

Republicans easily win Virginia in off years. Just ask Gov. Cuccinelli and Sen. Gillespie.
Bolling could have beat McAuliffe, Cooch is just too conservative to run statewide (in 2009 he won with McDonnell's coattails, and NOVA has grown since). Gillespie was practically ignored and everyone was shocked to see him overperform polling. People expected Warner to win in a landslide like in 2008, but if the NRSC knew Gillespie was secretly campaigning strong, they could have helped give him the final push.

Yeah a lot of those people were Democrats, who forgot to show up. This says more about the Warner campaign than it does about Gillespie or the relative strength of Republicans in the state.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: July 23, 2016, 01:54:35 AM »

Gillespie not switching races:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: July 23, 2016, 02:03:52 AM »

Congratulations, future Senator Dave Brat.

That's probably one person that would not win statewide, even in an off-year.

Is Brat really that bad? He perfectly combines libertarians and evangelicals, and if he gets Webb and Bolling to endorse/campaign for him, he could easily win over the mainstream Republicans for a strong coalition.
Logged
syntaxerror
Rookie
**
Posts: 127


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -1.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: July 23, 2016, 03:55:39 AM »
« Edited: July 23, 2016, 03:58:25 AM by syntaxerror »

If McAuliffe gets cleared by the FBI, I think he'll go for it himself (and with his approvals, with good reason) because he's term-limited.
Logged
JMT
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,104


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: July 23, 2016, 06:55:24 AM »

Terry McAuliffe would not be the Democrats best choice, seems like he's pretty unpopular in VA. Clinton must know that this could be a tough seat to maintain in a special election, and having the senate would be important to her. So I think McAuliffe would let another Democrat run, and I think McAuliffe will get a job in the Clinton administration when his term wraps up due to his closeness to the Clintons and by allowing a stronger Dem to run for the seat
Logged
Kevin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,424
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: July 23, 2016, 10:20:06 AM »

Congratulations, future Senator Dave Brat.

That's probably one person that would not win statewide, even in an off-year.

Is Brat really that bad? He perfectly combines libertarians and evangelicals, and if he gets Webb and Bolling to endorse/campaign for him, he could easily win over the mainstream Republicans for a strong coalition.

Yes he is,

He'd get killed in NOVA and is a very poor fit for VA outside his district.
Logged
Kevin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,424
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: July 23, 2016, 10:22:31 AM »
« Edited: July 23, 2016, 03:59:10 PM by Kevin »

Congratulations, future Senator Dave Brat.

That's probably one person that would not win statewide, even in an off-year.

Perhaps. After Scott Brown, 2010, and 2014 midterms I am deeply cynical about elections after a Democrat wins.

Same, but VA Democrats won't get caught napping like MA Democrats. They are surprisingly competent. Plus, until Republicans find a way to stop bleeding in NOVA, they just won't be winning any statewide elections.

The problems of the GOP in VA mirror those that they have nationwide.
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,512
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: July 23, 2016, 10:25:49 AM »

Well,
I guess this will be a GOP pick up in 2018.
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,512
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: July 23, 2016, 10:51:10 AM »

Assuming they lose the Senate this year, Republicans don't even need VA in 2018 to win back the Senate then. Someone like Barbara Comstock could win, but I'd rate this race Tilt D for now.
Republicans can win 10 seats in 2018 assuming Clinton wins (which is likely),
I'm sure they will screw up some races because this is the Republicans so they will end up picking up from 6 to 9 seats, 8 would be my guess right now.
Logged
Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,201
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: July 23, 2016, 03:27:13 PM »

Assuming they lose the Senate this year, Republicans don't even need VA in 2018 to win back the Senate then. Someone like Barbara Comstock could win, but I'd rate this race Tilt D for now.
Republicans can win 10 seats in 2018 assuming Clinton wins (which is likely),
I'm sure they will screw up some races because this is the Republicans so they will end up picking up from 6 to 9 seats, 8 would be my guess right now.

lol
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: July 23, 2016, 03:40:34 PM »

Unlikely shot-in-the-dark but for teh lulz and still a decent suggestion for holding it down:

Creigh Deeds

That definitely sounds like a placeholder, considering how badly he did when he ran for Governor.
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,512
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: July 23, 2016, 03:45:29 PM »

Assuming they lose the Senate this year, Republicans don't even need VA in 2018 to win back the Senate then. Someone like Barbara Comstock could win, but I'd rate this race Tilt D for now.
Republicans can win 10 seats in 2018 assuming Clinton wins (which is likely),
I'm sure they will screw up some races because this is the Republicans so they will end up picking up from 6 to 9 seats, 8 would be my guess right now.

lol
Great analysis!
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: July 23, 2016, 05:11:10 PM »

LOL at Webb campaigning for Brat. He's not even a real Republican, he's just extremely salty that his presidential bid went nowhere.

And last time I checked, McAuliffe had a decent approval rating. I haven't seen a recent poll though.
Logged
Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,201
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: July 23, 2016, 05:15:38 PM »

Assuming they lose the Senate this year, Republicans don't even need VA in 2018 to win back the Senate then. Someone like Barbara Comstock could win, but I'd rate this race Tilt D for now.
Republicans can win 10 seats in 2018 assuming Clinton wins (which is likely),
I'm sure they will screw up some races because this is the Republicans so they will end up picking up from 6 to 9 seats, 8 would be my guess right now.

lol
Great analysis!

I mean this with all due respect (and not in the a**hole way people say that on C-Span, I really don't mean this as an insult or anything, even though it may sound a bit harsh), the idea that we know anything about what 2018 will look like right now (much less, that a particular party will gain 6-10 seats) is beyond ridiculous.  "Lol" was exactly the response that the post warranted.  I don't mean to single you out Windjammer because you're actually a pretty good poster, but folks on this forum really need to stop trying to make predictions like this when we're not even through the current election cycle.
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,512
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: July 23, 2016, 05:22:12 PM »

Assuming they lose the Senate this year, Republicans don't even need VA in 2018 to win back the Senate then. Someone like Barbara Comstock could win, but I'd rate this race Tilt D for now.
Republicans can win 10 seats in 2018 assuming Clinton wins (which is likely),
I'm sure they will screw up some races because this is the Republicans so they will end up picking up from 6 to 9 seats, 8 would be my guess right now.

lol
Great analysis!

I mean this with all due respect (and not in the a**hole way people say that on C-Span, I really don't mean this as an insult or anything, even though it may sound a bit harsh), the idea that we know anything about what 2018 will look like right now (much less, that a particular party will gain 6-10 seats) is beyond ridiculous.  "Lol" was exactly the response that the post warranted.  I don't mean to single you out Windjammer because you're actually a pretty good poster, but folks on this forum really need to stop trying to make predictions like this when we're not even through the current election cycle.
Well, if Hillary Clinton wins in 2016 (which seems to be likely), I don't see how 2018 could end up being a favourable year for the democrats. Midterms are most of the time bad for the incumbent party, they were bad for the GOP in 2006 and they were bad for the democratic party in 2010 and 2014.
Considering the democrats will have many many seats to defend, many of them in clearly republican states, I really believe that the democrats are going to lose many seats.
I know it may seem a bit early, but this is a political forum and I'm a political nerd sooooo,... Tongue  I obviously hope I will be wrong though.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: July 23, 2016, 05:26:33 PM »

Only old white people vote in midterms. I don't see why that would change in two years. 2018 will be another bloodbath, which is why Democrats need to push through as much as possible after 2016 if we win.
Logged
Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,201
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: July 23, 2016, 05:52:36 PM »

Assuming they lose the Senate this year, Republicans don't even need VA in 2018 to win back the Senate then. Someone like Barbara Comstock could win, but I'd rate this race Tilt D for now.
Republicans can win 10 seats in 2018 assuming Clinton wins (which is likely),
I'm sure they will screw up some races because this is the Republicans so they will end up picking up from 6 to 9 seats, 8 would be my guess right now.

lol
Great analysis!

I mean this with all due respect (and not in the a**hole way people say that on C-Span, I really don't mean this as an insult or anything, even though it may sound a bit harsh), the idea that we know anything about what 2018 will look like right now (much less, that a particular party will gain 6-10 seats) is beyond ridiculous.  "Lol" was exactly the response that the post warranted.  I don't mean to single you out Windjammer because you're actually a pretty good poster, but folks on this forum really need to stop trying to make predictions like this when we're not even through the current election cycle.
Well, if Hillary Clinton wins in 2016 (which seems to be likely), I don't see how 2018 could end up being a favourable year for the democrats. Midterms are most of the time bad for the incumbent party, they were bad for the GOP in 2006 and they were bad for the democratic party in 2010 and 2014.
Considering the democrats will have many many seats to defend, many of them in clearly republican states, I really believe that the democrats are going to lose many seats.
I know it may seem a bit early, but this is a political forum and I'm a political nerd sooooo,... Tongue  I obviously hope I will be wrong though.

The Pubs did fine in 2002 Tongue  This whole idea that we know what 2018 is gonna look like already is silly.  Did anyone think Trump would be the Republican nominee in 2014?  Of course not.
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: July 23, 2016, 06:05:27 PM »

Assuming they lose the Senate this year, Republicans don't even need VA in 2018 to win back the Senate then. Someone like Barbara Comstock could win, but I'd rate this race Tilt D for now.
Republicans can win 10 seats in 2018 assuming Clinton wins (which is likely),
I'm sure they will screw up some races because this is the Republicans so they will end up picking up from 6 to 9 seats, 8 would be my guess right now.

lol
Great analysis!

I mean this with all due respect (and not in the a**hole way people say that on C-Span, I really don't mean this as an insult or anything, even though it may sound a bit harsh), the idea that we know anything about what 2018 will look like right now (much less, that a particular party will gain 6-10 seats) is beyond ridiculous.  "Lol" was exactly the response that the post warranted.  I don't mean to single you out Windjammer because you're actually a pretty good poster, but folks on this forum really need to stop trying to make predictions like this when we're not even through the current election cycle.
Well, if Hillary Clinton wins in 2016 (which seems to be likely), I don't see how 2018 could end up being a favourable year for the democrats. Midterms are most of the time bad for the incumbent party, they were bad for the GOP in 2006 and they were bad for the democratic party in 2010 and 2014.
Considering the democrats will have many many seats to defend, many of them in clearly republican states, I really believe that the democrats are going to lose many seats.
I know it may seem a bit early, but this is a political forum and I'm a political nerd sooooo,... Tongue  I obviously hope I will be wrong though.

The Pubs did fine in 2002 Tongue  This whole idea that we know what 2018 is gonna look like already is silly.  Did anyone think Trump would be the Republican nominee in 2014?  Of course not.
For goodness sake, this entire forum is basically about speculating on the future. By that logic we should shut down ALL discussion on future elections, "because we don't really know what will the election environment will be."

I agree with Windjammer - odds are that if Clinton is the next president, 2018 will be a good year for Republicans. Considering how many seats they are defending and how unpopular Clinton already is, Republicans can win 10 seats. Doesn't mean they will, but it is in the realm of possibilities.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: July 23, 2016, 06:28:38 PM »

Well, Democrats better put everything they have into Virginia's 2017 election. Have Obama practically live in that state until the election is over, because Clinton may have just committed the biggest blunder of her campaign. Whoever they run now has to win 2 elections only a year apart, the first of which, at least, is going to be heavily contested. I wonder what Democrats will be thinking if they only win a bare 50-50 majority this year (with VP) and then they lose this seat next year? Is Kaine so important that they should risk a Senate seat? What if Hillary's Fall 2017 approval ratings mirror her favorable ratings right now? Because they are terrible. She has so many issues from her tenure as SoS that I seriously doubt she is going to have an easy time rehabbing her numbers, especially in the span of 11 months.

She could have picked from a whole bunch of people, and she has to pick someone who puts a possible Senate majority at risk. Virginia is not a safe bet in low turnout odd-year statewide elections. It's just so odd to me because Hillary is notoriously cautious, and yet she risks hamstringing her ability to appoint executive officials and federal judges/SCOTUS justices just so she can have Kaine.
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,594
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: July 23, 2016, 06:39:10 PM »

Democrats actually have a pretty good track record in Virginia's off year elections.  The only recent one we've lost is 2009.
Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: July 23, 2016, 08:02:14 PM »

Assuming they lose the Senate this year, Republicans don't even need VA in 2018 to win back the Senate then. Someone like Barbara Comstock could win, but I'd rate this race Tilt D for now.
Republicans can win 10 seats in 2018 assuming Clinton wins (which is likely),
I'm sure they will screw up some races because this is the Republicans so they will end up picking up from 6 to 9 seats, 8 would be my guess right now.

lol

North Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Indiana, and Missouri are five easy pick ups if Hillary's President. Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania would all be the next most likely pickups. Finally, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and maybe New Mexico could be picked up.

I'd say between three and thirteen is the range, depending upon popularity and a possible rally around the flag effect.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.066 seconds with 12 queries.