If Elizabeth Warren is selected as Hillary's VP etc.

[This account no longer in use.]

1. Who will Charlie Baker appoint to replace her?
2. Who will win the special election?

[Heisenberg]

1. Baker will probably appoint a Republican like him (fiscally conservative, socially liberal, able to make inroads with independents). Most likely his 2010 running mate, Richard Tisei.
2. Democrats will really have to get a strong recruit, probably a more senior member of their House delegation. The special election will come down to the Democratic candidate, turnout, and opinion of Tisei. All else equal, it would be Tilt D.

[Figueira]

1. Baker will appoint an insider who won't run for re-election. Maybe someone from his staff.
2. I'm thinking Seth Moulton and/or Joe Kennedy might run. Possibly Maura Healey, but I kind of doubt it. Maybe someone random like, uh, Niki Tsongas? I don't think anyone expected Markey and Lynch to run in 2013. I'm not sure who the Republicans will run, but probably someone along the lines of Gabriel Gomez (but not Gabriel Gomez himself). I could see Richard Tisei running as Heisenberg suggested. But the Democrat will win. I'm pretty sure 2010 was a fluke.

[publicunofficial]

If the MA legislature was smart, they'd pass a law that says the Governor must appoint a senator from the same party as the outgoing senator. Similar to Arizona, Hawaii, Utah, and Wyoming law. They have a veto-proof majority, so Baker wouldn't be able to stop them.

As far as who Baker would select for an interim pick, probably either Richard Tisei, or just some boring staffer along the Mo Cowan or Jeffrey Chiesa line. Dems could run anybody not named Martha Coakley and be favorites to retain the seat; but Moulton, Kennedy, and maybe Tsongas or Lynch seem like the most likely to step up.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not happening, so it's a moot point.

[Kingpoleon]

1. I see Gabriel Gomez or Richard Tisei being named to the seat, if he wants to retain the seat. If they both refused, either Jane Swift or Paul Cellucci or William Weld would be a good B+ choice. Chief of Staff Steven Kadish or state chair Kirsten Hughes is most likely if he just wants a placeholder.
2. Depending on how much Baker is willing to risk to campaign for them, I could see either a B-tier Democrat like Niki Tsongas, Daniel Conley, or Marty Walsh winning. Other than that, Moulton or Patrick would probably be the strongest Democratic candidate.

[Heisenberg]

1. I see Gabriel Gomez or Richard Tisei being named to the seat, if he wants to retain the seat. If they both refused, either Jane Swift or Paul Cellucci or William Weld would be a good B+ choice. Chief of Staff Steven Kadish or state chair Kirsten Hughes is most likely if he just wants a placeholder.
2. Depending on how much Baker is willing to risk to campaign for them, I could see either a B-tier Democrat like Niki Tsongas, Daniel Conley, or Marty Walsh winning. Other than that, Moulton or Patrick would probably be the strongest Democratic candidate.

Paul Cellucci passed away in 2013 from complications from ALS.

[Mr. Illini]

Joe Kennedy would make a move for the seat. I think he badly wants the seat and is operating under the impression that it won't open for a couple of cycles, giving him a nice house career (and fundraising career) before he would step up.

Were it to open up earlier than that, though, I think he would chance it and go for it.

[RogueBeaver]

Boston Globe accounts I've read say Kennedy wants to spend some more time in the House. Maybe he changes his mind or Dem leaders prefer him over Moulton since Kennedy a) hasn't successfully defied them b) isn't interested in national politics.

[Blair]

It would be funny if the MA pass a law for the third term- they passed one in 2004 to stop Romney appointing a Kerry replacement, then in 2009 to let Patrick appoint the replacement to Ted Kennedy.

Lesson is dem's need to win governor races