NYT/CBS-National: Clinton +6

[RogueBeaver]

47/41.

[Dr. Arch]

Some light among the presumptivity storm.

[The Other Castro]

Favorability:
Clinton: 31-52 (-21)
Trump: 26-55 (-29)

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Favorability:
Clinton: 31-52 (-21)
Trump: 26-55 (-29)

I do not like this election.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Favorability:
Clinton: 31-52 (-21)
Trump: 26-55 (-29)

Her numbers will improve.

[Gass3268]

Nice to see a good pollster come out with a poll for once.

[Angrie]

Favorability:
Clinton: 31-52 (-21)
Trump: 26-55 (-29)

Her numbers will improve.

Suppose they improve to 35% favorable. Then she has 35% favorable numbers. The only thing saving her is that Trump is even worse.

[psychprofessor]

Favorability:
Clinton: 31-52 (-21)
Trump: 26-55 (-29)

Her numbers will improve.

Suppose they improve to 35% favorable. Then she has 35% favorable numbers. The only thing saving her is that Trump is even worse.

The only person this cycle that has had net positive favorable ratings has been Sanders. Even Kasich, after attacks from Cruz and Trump fell into negative territory. And Sanders hasn't faced any attacks so it makes sense his favorables would remain intact.

In essence, we were guaranteed two candidates with high unfavorables regardless...that's just politics today. The point is, the Republicans are nominating someone with the worst unfavorables of the bunch. And if you read the article, his unfavorables among women and people of color are horrendous.

[Holmes]

If Democrats and Sanders supporters can unify, her numbers will go up. Most likely not in positive territory, but things are really contentious right now on the Democratic side (much more than any other instance in this primary season) so let's hope those tensions can cool.

[Ronnie]

Yup, even at what will be Hillary's nadir, she still leads Trump comfortably.  Expect her to swamp him in polls after the DNC.

[IceSpear]

But Rasmussen and Fox told me Trump was inevitable!

[Matty]

D+8 sample seems too high. Poll adjusted for that is probably in line with NBC

[Ebsy]

D+8 sample seems too high. Poll adjusted for that is probably in line with NBC

Perhaps, but I believe that Pew and Gallup have found that Democrats have a > 6 point advantage on Republicans.

[Matty]

D+8 sample seems too high. Poll adjusted for that is probably in line with NBC

Perhaps, but I believe that Pew and Gallup have found that Democrats have a > 6 point advantage on Republicans.

Interesting.

I think hat the race right now is anywhere from a 2-5 point clinton lead.

[Horus]

Crosstabs show Clinton doing much better among 30-45s than 18-29s.

[Holmes]

Crosstabs show Clinton doing much better among 30-45s than 18-29s.

Crosstabs are usually muddy.

[Mr. Morden]

Crosstabs:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbsnyt-national-poll-hillary-clintons-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows/



Another poll in which Clinton does (slightly) better among members of her own party than Trump does among his.  Yet it's the Republicans who have "unified" while Democrats haven't?

[Eraserhead]

Let's not all act like CBS is the gold standard or anything...

[Ebsy]

That Clinton is nearly tied with white women should be sending off klaxons at RNC headquarters.

[Eraserhead]

Crosstabs:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbsnyt-national-poll-hillary-clintons-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows/



Another poll in which Clinton does (slightly) better among members of her own party than Trump does among his.  Yet it's the Republicans who have "unified" while Democrats haven't?

Hillary's main problem has little to do with Democrats and a lot do with independents who tend to vote for Democrats.

[Sbane]

Crosstabs:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbsnyt-national-poll-hillary-clintons-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows/



Another poll in which Clinton does (slightly) better among members of her own party than Trump does among his.  Yet it's the Republicans who have "unified" while Democrats haven't?

Hillary's main problem has little to do with Democrats and a lot do with independents who tend to vote for Democrats.

They aren't voting for Trump though, at least not in most of the country. There is some concern in the midwest but not in the rest of the country.

[Sbane]

Also how is Clinton only up 6 if she is only losing the white vote by 12 points. If that result actually happens in the election, she wins by 12-13 points......

[Ebsy]

Also how is Clinton only up 6 if she is only losing the white vote by 12 points. If that result actually happens in the election, she wins by 12-13 points......

Most of her current weakness appears to be young voters.

[Sbane]

Also how is Clinton only up 6 if she is only losing the white vote by 12 points. If that result actually happens in the election, she wins by 12-13 points......

Most of her current weakness appears to be young voters.

I agree. Good news is that young voters are more disproportionately Latino and Asian/Others and will turn out against Trump. That being said, she needs a good margin amongst all young voters. I definitely think they will fall in line once they are faced with the choice of Trump or Clinton. The margin will be more key than the turnout.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

D+8 sample seems too high. Poll adjusted for that is probably in line with NBC

Can we please not start this again...

Also how is Clinton only up 6 if she is only losing the white vote by 12 points. If that result actually happens in the election, she wins by 12-13 points......

Most of her current weakness appears to be young voters.

And we know what's causing that.