IF, Trump wins FL, OH, PA. THAN, what state puts him over the top?
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  IF, Trump wins FL, OH, PA. THAN, what state puts him over the top?
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Poll
Question: IF, Trump wins FL, OH, PA  THAN, what state puts him over the top?
#1
NC
 
#2
VA
 
#3
NJ
 
#4
NH
 
#5
MI
 
#6
WI
 
#7
IA
 
#8
NM
 
#9
NV
 
#10
WA
 
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Total Voters: 57

Author Topic: IF, Trump wins FL, OH, PA. THAN, what state puts him over the top?  (Read 1940 times)
PresidentTRUMP
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« Reply #25 on: May 20, 2016, 08:53:52 AM »

If Trump wins PA he will be the next president of the USA.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #26 on: May 20, 2016, 08:57:29 AM »

If Trump wins PA he will be the next president of the USA.

What if Hillary wins FL?
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Seriously?
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« Reply #27 on: May 20, 2016, 12:24:49 PM »

If Trump wins PA he will be the next president of the USA.
Absolutely, in that scenario, VA, NC, FL, OH, etc. fall into line and Trump gets to 270.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #28 on: May 20, 2016, 01:53:17 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2016, 01:56:40 PM by Likely Voter »

It seems impossible to imagine that FL, OH and PA would be more R leaning than NC. I think the more likely narrow path to 270+ is to start with NC, FL and OH and then...

...Win with states that GW Bush won (at least once)
- VA + 1 of CO, IA, NV or NH
- CO +2 of(IA, NV & NH)

...Win with at least one 'blue wall' state
- MI + 1 of CO, IA, NV, MN, WI, ME  
- MN or WI + CO (or 2 of NV, IA, NH, ME)
- PA

Personally I still think VA+IA is easier than a narrow path through the blue wall. However, if Clinton picks Kaine, then PA may become Trump's easiest narrow path.
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Ljube
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« Reply #29 on: May 20, 2016, 02:00:45 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2016, 02:03:41 PM by Ljube »

It seems impossible to imagine that FL, OH and PA would be more R leaning than NC. I think the more likely narrow path to 270+ is to start with NC, FL and OH and then...

...Win with states that GW Bush won (at least once)
- VA + 1 of CO, IA, NV or NH
- CO +2 of(IA, NV & NH)

...Win with at least one 'blue wall' state
- MI + 1 of CO, IA, NV, MN, WI, ME  
- MN or WI + CO (or 2 of NV, IA, NH, ME)
- PA

Personally I still think VA+IA is easier than a narrow path through the blue wall. However, if Clinton picks Kaine, then PA may become Trump's easiest narrow path.


PA is the most pro Trump state of the must win Trump states you listed, OH and FL excluded.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #30 on: May 20, 2016, 02:51:15 PM »

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FTFY.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #31 on: May 23, 2016, 07:31:26 PM »

I really want to hear your reasoning for Washington being a toss-up, but not Oregon.

I will likely think your answer is incredibly stupid, but I'm morbidly curious.

I never said anything was a toss-up, several scenarios are possible.
If the North West came into play quite-possibly Oregon would as well. 
If I had to favor Washington coming into play before Oregon (I'm not necessarily) than I'd say it was do to a larger suburban population overcoming or counter balancing fringe left voting blocks.
Oregon could come into play before Washington by a less complicated Rural v Urban dynamic. 
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Mallow
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« Reply #32 on: May 23, 2016, 08:12:18 PM »

I really want to hear your reasoning for Washington being a toss-up, but not Oregon.

I will likely think your answer is incredibly stupid, but I'm morbidly curious.

I never said anything was a toss-up, several scenarios are possible.
If the North West came into play quite-possibly Oregon would as well. 
If I had to favor Washington coming into play before Oregon (I'm not necessarily) than I'd say it was do to a larger suburban population overcoming or counter balancing fringe left voting blocks.
Oregon could come into play before Washington by a less complicated Rural v Urban dynamic. 

Your map has WA as a tossup and OR as a Dem state. By that logic, you are favoring Washington coming into play before Oregon. Which is ridiculous.
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