McLaughlin Predicts - Election 1986

[mencken]

http://mclaughlin.com/transcript.htm?id=2134

They severely erred in Nevada, and also made mistakes in Washington, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, Maryland, and North Dakota.

[heatcharger]

The McLaughlin Group was comically bad at predictions. In fact, Nate Silver had a whole chapter in his book on the inaccuracies of political pundits and it revolved around The McLaughlin Group.

Still, they were fun to watch.

[Kingpoleon]

Reid only won by 5% in Nevada. I think you mean way off in Maryland, where Mikulski won by twenty.

[Vosem]

This is from 1985, more than a year before the elections, so it makes sense that it really only vaguely resembles the end result -- they're assuming Laxalt and Mathias both run for reelection (neither did), they have Don Siegelman as Jeremiah Denton's opponent (Siegelman ended up dropping down to run for Attorney General, letting future floor-crosser Richard Shelby be the Democratic candidate), among other mistakes (they didn't anticipate a Wyche Fowler run at all, for instance). Other mentions of politicians that would be more prominent later on are also interesting (they suggest Mark Andrews was only vulnerable if Byron Dorgan ran against him -- Andrews ended up losing to the then-obscure state Tax Commissioner Kent Conrad, while Dorgan entered the Senate only six years later).

[Mr.Phips]

Why do people always say that the Republican class of 1980 was so weak?  Jim Abdnor in South Dakota was a popular Congressman who had represented half of the state, as was Mark Andrews in North Dakota.  Paula Hawkins in Florida was a statewide elected official when she ran. 

I agree that Mack Martingly in Georgia and Jeremiah Denton in Alabama were not great candidates, but Republicans had no bench in either state and both came very close to winning again in 1986.