Point blank: Does Trump do better or worse than Romney amongst whites?

[Nichlemn]

Well, Romney lost by 4 points, while doing pretty poorly with minorities. I think Trump, on average, loses by a couple points more. It'd take quite a bit for all these further erosions to be concentrated among minorities, so I think he probably does a little bit worse among whites.

But the error bars are huge. If Trump loses by double digits, of course he's doing worse, and if he wins, of course he's doing better.