If Obama's approval rating doesn't drop before November, how does Trump win?

[publicunofficial]

As one can see here on RCP, Barack Obama currently has an average net positive approval rating of 48.6-47.7. The recent CBS/NYT poll has his favorability at +7. Obama is likely benefiting from the lack of attention on him, and from being compared to the two candidates vying to be his successor, who are easily the least popular pair of major party nominees in recent memory.

Obama is going to be spending a huge amount of his time between the convention and November rallying his victory coalition of 2012 and 2008 to coalesce around Hillary. While it appears Bernie Sanders might not be as enthusiastic, I suspect by mid-June he will start to do the same. Hillary is, and and will be, essentially campaigning for an Obama 3rd term. 

My question is this: If President Obama's approval stays where it's at, or perhaps continues to improve, how does Donald Trump win the election? Let's assume no major scandals emerge from the White House, and that the economy continues it's slow but steady crawl upwards.

[RaphaelDLG]

With all of the conditions you specified, you're controlling for every fundamental/factor other than the candidates. 

HRC would have to do something really bad or have something very damaging about her surface.

Trump would have to save Gotham from a nuclear bomb or something.

[Adam Griffin]

It's worth noting that RCP's aggregate is likely under-representing the actual number (they tend to do this with a LOT of polls; more selective of left-leaning polls or those that show Democratic success, as I've observed over multiple election cycles).

I know Gallup has had the President at or above 50% for 10 of the past 11 weeks (the one exception being a 48/47 approval rating). Broken down by region is even more impressive: he has had 45-48% approval rating in the South over the past month, which is...surprising, considering the national figures have been 51-52% over the same time period.

This man in popular in a broad sense. It's not just certain demographics running up the tally right now. He's doing well enough in the South, well enough with whites (40%), well enough with all income groups, and is even at/above 40% with weekly churchgoers.

I think the GOP has gotten the memo. Has anybody else noticed how the amount of "Obama's failed agenda" talk and "Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton" associations have decreased significantly in recent weeks? It's almost as if they've forgotten he's the President they hate...

[Phony Moderate]

Bill Clinton was in the 60s throughout 2000...

[Hammy]

Bill Clinton was in the 60s throughout 2000...

If I recall, there were several articles at the time that point that Gore lost because he distanced himself from Clinton during the campaign, worried the scandals would hurt him.

[SillyAmerican]

My question is this: If President Obama's approval stays where it's at, or perhaps continues to improve, how does Donald Trump win the election? Let's assume no major scandals emerge from the White House, and that the economy continues it's slow but steady crawl upwards.

Donald Trump wins the election by making a solid argument that his policies provide a way to get the economy moving in the right direction, offer the best security for the country, and result in a brighter future than the alternative. It aint rocket science...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I wouldn't be surprised if Obama's bump in approvals is because he doesn't seem so bad compared to Hillary.

[Adam Griffin]

I wouldn't be surprised if Obama's bump in approvals is because he doesn't seem so bad compared to Hillary.

I considered this, too. Not only is Clinton less popular than Obama overall, but she's less popular than Obama among Republicans.

[Mr. Smith]

Same way Nixon lost despite Ike's approval ratings, or in a reverse idea how Humphrey almost won despite LBJ's really low approval ratings.

Hate to break it to ya', but it really is ultimately the candidate themselves

I wouldn't be surprised if Obama's bump in approvals is because he doesn't seem so bad compared to Hillary.

I considered this, too. Not only is Clinton less popular than Obama overall, but she's less popular than Obama among Republicans.

Obama does well now because he's not at the top of his game anymore, and of course as was well documented, he let them walk all over him for a half-baked healthcare plan...and they still complained and ruined everything.

But Hillary, when she finally decides on a course of action that has the path of least resistance, she's more likely to take the Johnson Treatment route...which is at this point the only way to get anything done..


"Donald Trump wins the election by making a solid argument that his policies provide a way to get the economy moving in the right direction, offer the best security for the country, and result in a brighter future than the alternative. It aint rocket science..."

He'd have to figure out how to have a solid argument first. Right now his rhetoric mostly amounts to when forced to be specific:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZY8jUuEzJQ

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With a harah rehash of facts,  Clinton can win on Benghazi, a narrow 272-266 election. Biden, Blumenthal & Castro(Future Veep) says no smoking gun.

[Sir Mohamed]

The Trumpster won't win, even if Obama's appoval ratings sink.

[Ljube]

I wouldn't be surprised if Obama's bump in approvals is because he doesn't seem so bad compared to Hillary.

[Matty]

HW bush would have lost in landslide to dukakis if not for reagan approval ratings.

[RightBehind]

HW bush would have lost in landslide to dukakis if not for reagan approval ratings.

Except Dukakis was once up 20 points on Bush.

Also, W. managed to win in 2000 despite Bill's approval ratings.

[Wisconsin+17]

Uh, he doesn't. I hate to break it to you but Trump ain't winning squat.

[Kingpoleon]

Win the 51.6% who disapprove...

[Wisconsin+17]

Ouch. He's already over 50 percent disapproval? Remind me why republicans chose him?

[IceSpear]

I wouldn't be surprised if Obama's bump in approvals is because he doesn't seem so bad compared to Hillary.

I considered this, too. Not only is Clinton less popular than Obama overall, but she's less popular than Obama among Republicans.

He's more popular now for the same reason Hillary was way more popular in 2013/2014: the right wing attack machine is now focusing all their fire on her rather than him.