Which states will trump concentrate on the most?

[jman123]

Which states will he be focusing on for Nov? I mean ads, rallies etc.

[Dr. Arch]

I hope he never sets foot in Wisconsin.

[Bureaucat]

Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

[Wisconsin+17]

Utah.

[Ronnie]

I don't know what he will do, but he should focus on FL, PA, AZ, GA, OH, and NC.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

NH, PA, OH, IA, VA, FL, CO.

[Mr. Illini]

The obvious swing states, but the very most in the rust belt, particularly Ohio.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

PA, OH, FL, IA, MI

[136or142]

Confusion.

[Likely Voter]

For some context, here is how Romney and the GOP spent in 2012 (using ad spending as a proxy):

FL   19%
VA   16%
OH   15%
NC   11%
CO   7%
IA   6%
NV   6%
WI   6%
MI    5%
PA   4%
NH   3%
MN   1%
NM   1%

If you note, 74% was spent on Romney's most likely 'narrow paths' of NC/FL/OH/VA plus CO or IA.  The rest was split about evenly between other states GWBush won (NM, NV, NH) and 'Blue Wall' states (PA, WI, MI and MN).

I think this time the 'blue wall' states and IA may get more love at the expense of the west, VA and NH . Also FL may need more but OH may need less.  Something like this

FL   20%
OH   14%
PA   14%
VA   12%
NC   11%
IA   7%
MI    6%
WI   6%
CO   5%
NV   2%
NH   2%
MN   1%
NM   0%


This puts 75% into two narrow paths (NC/OH/FL+PA and NC/OH/FL+VA&IA) with the remaining 1/4 of the money on alternative paths and plan Cs.  he should give up on fantasies about ME, NJ, NY etc. Also if he finds himself in need of defending GA and AZ, then that should come at the expensive of MN, MI, WI, CO and NV. He should keep his focus on the two core narrow paths.

[Unimog]

mainly: PA, OH, MI

WI, IA to a lesser extent.

needs to defend NC, GA and AZ

[Ljube]

Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

[mgop]

rust belt and swing states

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I thought he had OH locked down? Seems a waste of money in that case.

[Angrie]

Trump absolutely needs to put MI and PA into play. And it goes without saying that he needs OH - which he will win if he has any chance at MI or PI. If the states in play are the same as in 2012, he has very little chance. Trump is very unlikely to win NV. He is unlikely to win CO and will have a hard time in FL and VA. He needs to make up for that somewhere, or the electoral college will be brutal for him.

[Angrie]

I thought he had OH locked down? Seems a waste of money in that case.

He should concentrate mostly on MI and PA. He has to assume that he'll win OH if he wins either of those two and work to put Hillary on the defensive. Even if OH is not really "locked down" for him, he has to treat it as though it is not the tipping point state for him. It is a state that he will have to win in any realistic scenario where he wins.

[Ljube]

Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I thought he had OH locked down? Seems a waste of money in that case.

Well, that's exaggeration on my part. But that's beside the point.

The point is: Trump will not compete in states he has to defend. He will only compete in states where he is on the offensive. That's his character.

In other words, if he has to defend North Carolina, Arizona or Georgia, he has already lost the election. Given that he has the winner mentality, he will not even entertain that thought.

[Ljube]

I thought he had OH locked down? Seems a waste of money in that case.

He should concentrate mostly on MI and PA. He has to assume that he'll win OH if he wins either of those two and work to put Hillary on the defensive. Even if OH is not really "locked down" for him, he has to treat it as though it is not the tipping point state for him. It is a state that he will have to win in any realistic scenario where he wins.

Yes, he will not compete in the traditional swing states where he has little chance of winning and investing there would be a waste of resources.

However, Florida on itself is a big enough prize to justify heavy investment in it.

[President Pepe]

If he plays his cards right and focuses on the economic populist(continues his stance on trade, taxing Wall Street, raising minimum wage) He will probably win all the ruse  belt states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Like it or not, that's reality. He's defending AZ and GA. If he doesn't spend there, PA is worthless. Dollar by EV analysis is clear that it's better to spend defending and shoring up AZ + GA than on PA.

[Holmes]

I don't know what he will do, but he should focus on FL, PA, AZ, GA, OH, and NC.

Aside from PA, this is a losing Republican's battleground state list (although it was a battleground for the McCain and Romney campaigns anyway).