Which state is more likely to flip?

[Senator-elect Spark]

Michigan or my home state of Pennsylvania? With explanations

[LLR]

Pennsylvania

[Heisenberg]

Pennsylvania

[Angrie]

Michigan has voted more Democratic than Pennsylvania in every election since 1992, usually by about 1-2 points. So on that basis, you would think that PA will flip first.

On the other hand, PA voted a point or two more for Clinton in 1992, but that was because Perot was skewing things. Then you have to ask yourself why Perot skewed things in that way... The answer is pretty likely the giant sucking sound that Perot campaigned on. That means trade. And what does Trump have in common with Perot? Being against free trade, and prominently so.

Some other factors to consider are that the educated/middle class Philly suburbs will be relatively Trump resistant. On the other hand, Pennsyltucky is a natural feeding ground for Trump. I think those two factors roughly offset.

So I would say that in general, Pennsylvania would be likely to flip first. However, if Trump REALLY pushes the trade message hard in Michigan, it is possible that Michigan could flip first. This is really all besides the point though. Trump really needs BOTH to flip in order to have a decent shot at winning. The factors that will flip each state are similar, and they won't vote too differently from one another. Both will likely be just a tad more Democratic than Ohio.

[Ljube]

Pennsylvania

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Utah

[Gabagool102]

Pennsylvania

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Arizona or Georgia

[Kingpoleon]

Trump really needs BOTH to flip in order to have a decent shot at winning.

Not with this map:

However, I suppose when UT and AZ go Democratic in this map, then taking away PA knocks him down to 270. Is AK Democratic in this scenario too?
Not /s

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Arizona or Georgia

Stop.

[Gabagool102]

Utah

stop with this utah meme

[Angrie]

Trump really needs BOTH to flip in order to have a decent shot at winning.

Not with this map:

However, I suppose when UT and AZ go Democratic in this map, then taking away PA knocks him down to 270. Is AK Democratic in this scenario too?
Not /s

That is true, but that map assumes that VA and FL go Republican. With Trump, that is not a safe assumption. It is also not a safe assumption that he will necessarily win AZ, given his Hispanic and Mormon problems. It is true that probably he will win AZ if he wins MI and PA, but the demographics in those states are different, and it is possible they could shift differently.

[Gabagool102]

Utah

stop with this utah meme

Yeah, he's just upset that Cruz and Rubio lost the primary.

I can tell, but if Utah does for some odd reason goes Democrat, then Hilary will win the election, no questions asked but that simply will not happen.

[Angrie]

Here's why it is so tough for Trump to win. This map is 272 D, 266 R:

NV isn't really a swing state any more. It's like New Mexico was in 2008, when people thought that it might be winnable for Republicans, but it no longer really was.

WI is very tough for Trump, because even the Republicans there all hate him. NeverTrump has been pretty weak, but WI is one of its biggest strongholds.

VA is just getting harder and harder for a Republican to win because of NoVa.

Florida is hard because of the Puerto Rican influx, the turn of Cubans to Dems, and also the steadily increasing Black population.

VA, and especially FL, have a lot of electoral votes. You need a big midwestern state or two to offset them.

CO is hard because of the Hispanic population, and because it is in the west.

Of these, Trump's best shots are probably CO, FL, and VA. He has to win at least one or two of those and to make inroads in the midwest, and even then it is a matter of pulling an inside straight.

[Gabagool102]

Here's why it is so tough for Trump to win. This map is 272 D, 266 R:

NV isn't really a swing state any more. It's like New Mexico was in 2008, when people thought that it might be winnable for Republicans, but it no longer really was.

WI is very tough for Trump, because even the Republicans there all hate him. NeverTrump has been pretty weak, but WI is one of its biggest strongholds.

VA is just getting harder and harder for a Republican to win because of NoVa.

Florida is hard because of the Puerto Rican influx, the turn of Cubans to Dems, and also the steadily increasing Black population.

VA, and especially FL, have a lot of electoral votes. You need a big midwestern state or two to offset them.

CO is hard because of the Hispanic population, and because it is in the west.

Of these, Trump's best shots are probably CO, FL, and VA. He has to win at least one or two of those and to make inroads in the midwest, and even then it is a matter of pulling an inside straight.

First, off about CO. Yes it has a high Hispanic population but that's about it. It has a low black population, which kinda cancels out the effects that an Hispanic population would give to the DEMS.
FL on the other hand, yes it has a heavy Hispanic population, but turnout is going to stay the same, Hispanics have much lower turn out rates compared to whites, it may increase because of Trump but it will be insufficient. Remember Florida was really close, in 2012 with a candidate like Romney, and Trump is a much stronger candidate especially towards "WHITE MEN". Nevada and Virginia are looking more DEM every election season, especially with the demographics shifts but it's not impossible for him to carry it although its unlikely especially with Nevada, Virginia on the other hand may be  plausible but also unlikely.

[Virginiá]

First, off about CO. Yes it has a high Hispanic population but that's about it. It has a low black population, which kinda cancels out the effects that an Hispanic population would give to the DEMS.
FL on the other hand, yes it has a heavy Hispanic population, but turnout is going to stay the same, Hispanics have much lower turn out rates compared to whites, it may increase because of Trump but it will be insufficient. Remember Florida was really close, in 2012 with a candidate like Romney, and Trump is a much stronger candidate especially towards "WHITE MEN". Nevada and Virginia are looking more DEM every election season, especially with the demographics shifts but it's not impossible for him to carry it although its unlikely especially with Nevada, Virginia on the other hand may be  plausible but also unlikely.

Something else worth mentioning about Florida is that the younger generation in the state is heavily Democratic and has been trending that way since 2000 or before. These voters have been carrying their pro-Democratic habits with them as they age into the 30-44 bracket.

Age(s) 18 - 29:
2000 - 50% Gore
2004 - 58% Kerry
2008 - 61% Obama
2012 - 66% Obama

Age(s) 30 - 44:
2000 - 47% Gore
2004 - 46% Kerry
2008 - 49% Obama
2012 - 52% Obama

Age(s) 65+:
2000 - 46% Gore
2004 - 48% Kerry
2008 - 45% Obama
2012 - 41% Obama

(sources: NYT / CNN exit polls)

Point of this is that the generations of voters keeping Florida as a swing state/Republican-leaning are literally dying off and being replaced by a hyper-Democratic generation of voters. These vote shares for 18 - 29 are the kind of numbers you see in solid blue states, and it's not just because they are young, as young voters in more solid red states vote in large majorities for Republicans. Continued influx of Puerto Ricans will also accelerate the pro-Democratic trends in FL.

For numerous reasons (such as above), Florida is even less competitive for Republicans than it was in 2012. Not to say they can't win it, but it's getting more and more unlikely. By 2024, or sooner, it might not even be competitive anymore.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Pennsylvania

[Wisconsin+17]

Utah