Which of these states will trend GOP?
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  Which of these states will trend GOP?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Which states are more likely to flip for the 2016 election?
#1
Florida
#2
Virginia
#3
Iowa
#4
Colorado
#5
New Hampshire
#6
Maine's 2nd District
#7
Nevada
#8
Minnesota
#9
Wisconsin
#10
Michigan
#11
Pennsylvania
#12
Ohio
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Author Topic: Which of these states will trend GOP?  (Read 1635 times)
Senator-elect Spark
Spark498
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« on: May 22, 2016, 08:37:20 PM »
Huh
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Bismarck
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« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2016, 08:42:48 PM »
The title and the question ask two different things. I think PA Ohio Michigan and ME-02 all trend GOP but I don't know if trump can flip any of them. Iowa and Minnesota are up in the air on trend and I don't think either will trend strongly, Trump may swing some blue collar folks there but his personality clashes hard with the upper Midwestern culture.
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Angrie
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« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2016, 08:47:01 PM »
Ohio.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2016, 09:05:05 PM »
OH, PA, IA, MI and ME-02 will trend GOP. Maybe WI, MN and NV as well.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2016, 10:04:30 PM »
Ohio.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2016, 12:27:51 AM »
Flip GOP? None of the above. The trend question is much more interesting.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #6 on: May 23, 2016, 12:33:12 AM »
Quote from: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on May 23, 2016, 12:27:51 AM
Flip GOP? None of the above. The trend question is much more interesting.

^This.  Of the options the OP listed, I'd say OH, MI, and PA will trend Republican.  It's really hard to predict the other states, though.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #7 on: May 23, 2016, 11:05:11 AM »
New Hampshire.
























































Sorry, I just had to.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #8 on: May 23, 2016, 11:15:17 AM »
Probably just Ohio and Iowa.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #9 on: May 23, 2016, 11:28:46 AM »
Quote
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Now why didn't I say that? Wink
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: May 23, 2016, 11:31:56 AM »
The Great State of West Virginia. We adore Trump!
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President Johnson
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« Reply #11 on: May 23, 2016, 12:49:37 PM »
Ohio and Pennsylvania.
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Ljube
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« Reply #12 on: May 23, 2016, 12:51:19 PM »

And Michigan too.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #13 on: May 23, 2016, 12:59:18 PM »
I foresee utter disaster in Ohio.  The right-wing conspirators have convinced the sheeples that Hillary is not good, not good at all.  Deeply disturbing.  I hope Rachel Maddow can save us.
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jaichind
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« Reply #14 on: May 23, 2016, 01:00:55 PM »
BTW the question "Which of these states will trend GOP?" and "Which states are more likely to flip for the 2016 election?" are not the same question.  One is the state with the biggest relative swing toward GOP and which one will filp which is about the size of the relative swing AND the starting point for the state.  OH is the most likely to flip but PA will most likely have the biggest swing, slightly, over OH, in my view.
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mds32
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« Reply #15 on: May 23, 2016, 01:02:12 PM »
I'd say Minnesota over time will trend more towards the GOP.
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Dutch Conservative
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« Reply #16 on: May 23, 2016, 01:23:38 PM »
There is a good article about Pennsylvania on 538 and why it fits Trump.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/pennsylvania-could-be-an-electoral-tipping-point/
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White Trash
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« Reply #17 on: May 23, 2016, 02:19:03 PM »
I'm thinking Ohio, followed closely by Iowa and Pennsylvania
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LLR
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« Reply #18 on: May 23, 2016, 02:21:55 PM »
Iowa
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #19 on: May 23, 2016, 02:28:43 PM »
New Jersey is the easiest answer here. Obama got a huge bounce in 2012 because of Hurricane Sandy. It will trend back to it's more modest Democratic lean in 2016.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #20 on: May 23, 2016, 02:42:29 PM »
Quote from: mds32 on May 23, 2016, 01:02:12 PM
I'd say Minnesota over time will trend more towards the GOP.
With the influx of Somali and Hmong immigrants there, I see a GOP trend being forestalled for the near future.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #21 on: May 23, 2016, 02:56:21 PM »
Quote from: Zyzz on May 23, 2016, 02:28:43 PM
New Jersey is the easiest answer here. Obama got a huge bounce in 2012 because of Hurricane Sandy. It will trend back to it's more modest Democratic lean in 2016.
If Hillary wins by 10% or less, then you know it's an EV victory for Trump.
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