Will Trump perform better or worse than Romney's 2012 result?
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  Will Trump perform better or worse than Romney's 2012 result?
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Author Topic: Will Trump perform better or worse than Romney's 2012 result?  (Read 675 times)
Spark
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« on: May 21, 2016, 01:14:18 PM »

Explain.
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Vosem
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« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2016, 01:15:40 PM »

Worse, because the total number of Republicans he causes to leave the party plus new voters who register to vote against him is greater than the total number of new voters who register to vote for him.
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Gabagool102
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« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2016, 01:19:16 PM »

Trump will perform, ALOT better then Romney. For the simple fact, that although Trump has low favorability ratings so does Clinton, and Trump has shots at picking up states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.
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Ljube
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« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2016, 01:24:10 PM »
« Edited: May 21, 2016, 01:25:58 PM by Ljube »

Worse, because the total number of Republicans he causes to leave the party plus new voters who register to vote against him is greater than the total number of new voters who register to vote for him.

That's not true and you know it. First, the NeverTrump movement is all but dead. The former members of the said movement will eventually all join Trump, save for possibly a small number of holdouts.

The reason for this is simple: If Hillary is allowed to rein supreme and completely unchecked, akin to a medieval Queen, or a Russian Empress, the United States will quickly become Hell on Earth. The Republicans know this and Trump will keep reminding them of this simple fact for the next five and a half months till Election Day.

Vosem, just think of what kind of havoc Hillary will wreak on the Constitution and our way of life if she is allowed to name three or four justices.
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Figueira
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« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2016, 01:35:26 PM »

Most likely worse. Not everyone in this country is an angry white man. He might even do worse than McCain.
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Gabagool102
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« Reply #5 on: May 21, 2016, 01:38:02 PM »

Most likely worse. Not everyone in this country is an angry white man. He might even do worse than McCain.

What is with this site, and it's obsession with White men?
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Ljube
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« Reply #6 on: May 21, 2016, 01:42:26 PM »

Most likely worse. Not everyone in this country is an angry white man. He might even do worse than McCain.

What is with this site, and it's obsession with White men?

You are new to this site.

Allow me to explain. At least 70% of all members are Democrats (possibly more). Out of them, Hillbots are two thirds.

The remaining 30% or so Pubs are divided as follows: NeverTrump - one third, former NeverTrump, now grudgingly sort of pro Trump - one third, Trump supporters - maybe less than one third.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7 on: May 21, 2016, 01:45:10 PM »

Better, because he'll win. TRUMP is a much better candidate and creates enthusiasm. Hillary stands for the establishment and business-as-usual. Something, that voters don't want this year.
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Vosem
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« Reply #8 on: May 21, 2016, 01:58:08 PM »

Worse, because the total number of Republicans he causes to leave the party plus new voters who register to vote against him is greater than the total number of new voters who register to vote for him.

That's not true and you know it. First, the NeverTrump movement is all but dead. The former members of the said movement will eventually all join Trump, save for possibly a small number of holdouts.

NeverTrump is limited in its appeal, for obvious reasons, but it's certainly not dead. Trump continues to get only in the mid-60s in Republican primaries; 30% of Republicans in national polling have an unfavorable view of him, and a poll that has him at over 80% of Republicans is either an outlier or just accounting for a drop in turnout among anti-Trump Republicans.

There's a solid fifth of the party that won't vote for Trump. Whatever he does. There's maybe another tenth that probably won't, and another tenth that probably will but can be convinced out of it.

Politicians, Ljube, are motivated mainly by reelection. So when you see large numbers of Republican politicians not endorse Trump, or endorse him very quietly or half-heartedly, you can see there's a fear of NeverTrump reprisals at the ballot box.

The reason for this is simple: If Hillary is allowed to rein supreme and completely unchecked, akin to a medieval Queen, or a Russian Empress, the United States will quickly become Hell on Earth. The Republicans know this and Trump will keep reminding them of this simple fact for the next five and a half months till Election Day.

Vosem, just think of what kind of havoc Hillary will wreak on the Constitution and our way of life if she is allowed to name three or four justices.

I basically agree with you here (3-4 justices is a stretch, though; she'll replace Scalia with Garland, and perhaps Breyer is waiting for her election to retire, and that's probably it), but the problem is that there's simply no evidence Trump will be any better, and some statements that suggest he'd be worse. Hillary will be reminding voters -- including Republicans -- of that fact right up to election day. That's why she'll win.

Better, because he'll win. TRUMP is a much better candidate and creates enthusiasm. Hillary stands for the establishment and business-as-usual. Something, that voters don't want this year.

A half-hearted vote counts just as much as an enthusiastic one, I'm afraid. Romney had much bigger crowd sizes than Obama. He still lost.

Trump will get (is getting) bigger crowd sizes than Hillary. Of that there is no doubt. I'm afraid, however, that it doesn't matter much at all.
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Ljube
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« Reply #9 on: May 21, 2016, 02:06:03 PM »

Vosem, Trump has published a list of potential nominees for the Supreme Court. He is obviously way better than Hillary.

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RR1997
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« Reply #10 on: May 21, 2016, 02:15:04 PM »

Trump will do worse than Romney. Romney's 2012 performance is Trump's absolute ceiling. Trump will do at least 1%-5% worse than Romney.


lol
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Gabagool102
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« Reply #11 on: May 21, 2016, 02:20:07 PM »

Trump will do worse than Romney. Romney's 2012 performance is Trump's absolute ceiling. Trump will do at least 1%-5% worse than Romney.


lol

underestimating trump.
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Vosem
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« Reply #12 on: May 21, 2016, 02:41:59 PM »

Vosem, Trump has published a list of potential nominees for the Supreme Court. He is obviously way better than Hillary.

No force holds Trump to that list, and he's already demonstrated many times that his promises are trash.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #13 on: May 21, 2016, 02:59:58 PM »

Vosem, Trump has published a list of potential nominees for the Supreme Court. He is obviously way better than Hillary.

No force holds Trump to that list, and he's already demonstrated many times that his promises are trash.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #14 on: May 21, 2016, 03:01:43 PM »

Vosem, Trump has published a list of potential nominees for the Supreme Court. He is obviously way better than Hillary.



do you think we're stupid?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #15 on: May 21, 2016, 03:45:24 PM »

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A half-hearted vote counts just as much as an enthusiastic one, I'm afraid. Romney had much bigger crowd sizes than Obama. He still lost.

Trump will get (is getting) bigger crowd sizes than Hillary. Of that there is no doubt. I'm afraid, however, that it doesn't matter much at all.
[/quote]

It's not just about crowd sizes. It's about enthusiasm and the mood in general. And both of these are strongly on TRUMP's side, because he's message resonates very well with lots of voters.
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they don't love you like i love you
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« Reply #16 on: May 21, 2016, 04:07:11 PM »

Wasn't Ljube arguing a few days ago Trump is a closet liberal and never meant stuff like the Muslim ban? Now he's a true conservative?
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #17 on: May 21, 2016, 04:23:03 PM »

Worse, because the total number of Republicans he causes to leave the party plus new voters who register to vote against him is greater than the total number of new voters who register to vote for him.

That's not true and you know it. First, the NeverTrump movement is all but dead. The former members of the said movement will eventually all join Trump, save for possibly a small number of holdouts.

The reason for this is simple: If Hillary is allowed to rein supreme and completely unchecked, akin to a medieval Queen, or a Russian Empress, the United States will quickly become Hell on Earth. The Republicans know this and Trump will keep reminding them of this simple fact for the next five and a half months till Election Day.

Vosem, just think of what kind of havoc Hillary will wreak on the Constitution and our way of life if she is allowed to name three or four justices.

Whatever Republicans think of Trump, they will not leave the party because there is nowhere else to go.  There is no MORE conservative option for them, and while most GOP Congressional candidates will endorse Trump, most of them will still be adhering to the positions that Trump differs with, and those Republicans have a vested interest in downballot GOP victories. 
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #18 on: May 21, 2016, 04:24:28 PM »

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A half-hearted vote counts just as much as an enthusiastic one, I'm afraid. Romney had much bigger crowd sizes than Obama. He still lost.

Trump will get (is getting) bigger crowd sizes than Hillary. Of that there is no doubt. I'm afraid, however, that it doesn't matter much at all.

It's not just about crowd sizes. It's about enthusiasm and the mood in general. And both of these are strongly on TRUMP's side, because he's message resonates very well with lots of voters.
[/quote]

There is so much negative talk and unfavorable ratings against trump, and you have trump supporters who are in fantasy-land, claiming there is "enthusiasm" with "lots of voters."
Very strange.
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Vosem
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« Reply #19 on: May 21, 2016, 04:33:02 PM »

Worse, because the total number of Republicans he causes to leave the party plus new voters who register to vote against him is greater than the total number of new voters who register to vote for him.

That's not true and you know it. First, the NeverTrump movement is all but dead. The former members of the said movement will eventually all join Trump, save for possibly a small number of holdouts.

The reason for this is simple: If Hillary is allowed to rein supreme and completely unchecked, akin to a medieval Queen, or a Russian Empress, the United States will quickly become Hell on Earth. The Republicans know this and Trump will keep reminding them of this simple fact for the next five and a half months till Election Day.

Vosem, just think of what kind of havoc Hillary will wreak on the Constitution and our way of life if she is allowed to name three or four justices.

Whatever Republicans think of Trump, they will not leave the party because there is nowhere else to go.  There is no MORE conservative option for them, and while most GOP Congressional candidates will endorse Trump, most of them will still be adhering to the positions that Trump differs with, and those Republicans have a vested interest in downballot GOP victories. 

Of course there is. They can go home.

Some percent will also vote for Johnson, and some percent for Hillary herself, but I think the number who simply don't vote, or undervote, will be greater.
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Figueira
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« Reply #20 on: May 23, 2016, 05:41:13 AM »

Most likely worse. Not everyone in this country is an angry white man. He might even do worse than McCain.

What is with this site, and it's obsession with White men?

I'm not obsessed with them; I just recognize that they're the main part of Trump's base.
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standwrand
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« Reply #21 on: May 23, 2016, 08:12:47 AM »

Trump does better purely out of polarization and hate for Clinton.
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Xing
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« Reply #22 on: May 23, 2016, 08:18:24 AM »

Tough call. If the economy isn't in great shape, Obama's popularity is significantly lower than it is right now, and Hillary makes a lot of mistakes on the campaign trail, he could do better. Right now, though, it looks like he's going to do worse.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #23 on: May 23, 2016, 08:24:56 AM »

well, i'm fairly certain that romney/clinton voters will be a significantly larger group than obama/trump voters, so trump would need to do really well with turnout to do better than romney.
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RightBehind
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« Reply #24 on: May 23, 2016, 08:25:18 AM »

Most likely worse. Not everyone in this country is an angry white man. He might even do worse than McCain.

What is with this site, and it's obsession with White men?

You are new to this site.

Allow me to explain. At least 70% of all members are Democrats (possibly more). Out of them, Hillbots are two thirds.

The remaining 30% or so Pubs are divided as follows: NeverTrump - one third, former NeverTrump, now grudgingly sort of pro Trump - one third, Trump supporters - maybe less than one third.


You really believe that? Trump is a man who shows no regard for anyone or anything except for himself and his own ego. This is a man who is dangerously unqualified for the job and I have serious reason to think he would compromise the Constitution himself.
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