2016 Senate Race Upsets
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Author Topic: 2016 Senate Race Upsets  (Read 666 times)
Spark
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« on: May 21, 2016, 04:51:12 PM »
Huh
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2016, 05:06:10 PM »
Ward wins over McCain, loses to Kirkpatrick.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2016, 05:06:16 PM »
An IL upset seems likely, as Kirk won in a D+8 ticket by five points in 2008. That means he won by thirteen in a pure tossup. Since Obama won by 15, he outperformed/would outperform the national ticket by twenty-eight points if IL was a pure tossup. Since IL is a D+8 state, Kirk over performed the national ticket by 20.

As long as Trump holds Hillary to under a sixteen point win, Kirk should win pretty nicely.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2016, 07:03:32 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on May 21, 2016, 05:57:39 PM
Kathy Szeliga (R) wins in Maryland
Jason Kander (D) defeats Roy Blunt (R) in Missouri
Kelly Ayotte (R) wins in New Hampshire

How is that an upset Ayotte has lead in all but one poll in 2016 and the one she trailed in it was by only 2 points.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2016, 07:05:43 PM »
Anyways
Indiana-Baron Hill
North Carolina-Deborah Ross
Illinois-Mark Kirk (if that counts)
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #5 on: May 21, 2016, 07:05:58 PM »
Quote from: Northeast Assemblyman Kingpoleon on May 21, 2016, 05:06:16 PM
An IL upset seems likely, as Kirk won in a D+8 ticket by five points in 2008. That means he won by thirteen in a pure tossup. Since Obama won by 15, he outperformed/would outperform the national ticket by twenty-eight points if IL was a pure tossup. Since IL is a D+8 state, Kirk over performed the national ticket by 20.

As long as Trump holds Hillary to under a sixteen point win, Kirk should win pretty nicely.

You know, that's not how elections work.
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Miles
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« Reply #6 on: May 21, 2016, 07:15:36 PM »
Quote from: Pacific Councilor 1184AZ on May 21, 2016, 07:03:32 PM
Quote from: TN volunteer on May 21, 2016, 05:57:39 PM
Kathy Szeliga (R) wins in Maryland
Jason Kander (D) defeats Roy Blunt (R) in Missouri
Kelly Ayotte (R) wins in New Hampshire

How is that an upset Ayotte has lead in all but one poll in 2016 and the one she trailed in it was by only 2 points.

Ayotte losing is pretty much a given at this point.
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cxs018
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« Reply #7 on: May 21, 2016, 07:52:11 PM »
Quote from: Pacific Councilor 1184AZ on May 21, 2016, 07:03:32 PM
Quote from: TN volunteer on May 21, 2016, 05:57:39 PM
Kathy Szeliga (R) wins in Maryland
Jason Kander (D) defeats Roy Blunt (R) in Missouri
Kelly Ayotte (R) wins in New Hampshire

How is that an upset Ayotte has lead in all but one poll in 2016 and the one she trailed in it was by only 2 points.

Because m'angry NH women.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #8 on: May 21, 2016, 08:22:40 PM »
Gray defeats Paul in Kentucky
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Zioneer
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« Reply #9 on: May 21, 2016, 08:53:33 PM »
Quote from: Northeast Assemblyman Kingpoleon on May 21, 2016, 05:06:16 PM
An IL upset seems likely, as Kirk won in a D+8 ticket by five points in 2008. That means he won by thirteen in a pure tossup. Since Obama won by 15, he outperformed/would outperform the national ticket by twenty-eight points if IL was a pure tossup. Since IL is a D+8 state, Kirk over performed the national ticket by 20.

As long as Trump holds Hillary to under a sixteen point win, Kirk should win pretty nicely.

That... isn't how all elections work. Kirk was running against an incredibly flawed opponent in a very, very good GOP midterm. He doesn't have any of those advantages this year.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: May 21, 2016, 10:32:37 PM »
The only plausible outcome that would really be considered an upset right now is Kirkpatrick winning.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #11 on: May 21, 2016, 10:48:56 PM »
Ward over McCain

Kirkpatrick over Ward/McCain

Kander over Blunt

Ross over Burr

Hill over Young
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Ebsy
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« Reply #12 on: May 22, 2016, 12:47:30 AM »
Kander in Missouri or Kirkpatrick in Arizona seems more likely than the others.
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windjammer
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« Reply #13 on: May 23, 2016, 02:09:20 PM »
I think Kelli Ward will defeat John Mccain to be honest. I expect to be a slight favorite to win the general election in AZ.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #14 on: May 23, 2016, 02:29:43 PM »
Here are my thoughts
Kelli "Chemtrails" Ward will defeat John McCain, only to be defeated by Ann Kirkpatrick

Carlos Beruff wins the Republican Nomination in Florida

Alan Grayson wins the Democratic Nomination in Florida

Ross defeats Burr
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cxs018
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« Reply #15 on: May 23, 2016, 02:33:06 PM »
Quote from: Maxwell on May 23, 2016, 02:29:43 PM
Carlos Beruff wins the Republican Nomination in Florida

Alan Grayson wins the Democratic Nomination in Florida

That's completely nightmarish.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: May 23, 2016, 02:53:53 PM »
Quote from: Senator Smith (Labor-MA) on May 23, 2016, 02:33:06 PM
Quote from: Maxwell on May 23, 2016, 02:29:43 PM
Carlos Beruff wins the Republican Nomination in Florida

Alan Grayson wins the Democratic Nomination in Florida

That's completely nightmarish.

Indeed, and unlike some of the other scenarios, Grayson could actually win this one.
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