May 24 Washington state prediction thread

[jman123]

Predict the margins for both Republican and dem primaries.

Republicans because Kasich and cruz are still on ballot even though they suspended their campaign.

[Ronnie]

GOP:
Trump 65%
Kasich 17%
Cruz 16%

Dems:
Sanders 53%
Clinton 46%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

GOP:
Trump 66%
Cruz 15%
Kasich 13%
Carson 5%

Dems:
Sanders 55%
Clinton 44%

[Ebowed]

Republicans because Kasich and cruz are still on ballot even though they suspended their campaign.

So is Carson.  The complete list of candidates in both parties is listed above in 1184AZ's post.  There is no write-in option.

[LLR]

GOP

Orange Trumpy 65%
Losin' Johnny K 19%
Lyin'/Zodiac Killin' Ted 13%
Druggy Dr. Ben 3%

Dems
Crazy Bernie 54%
God Herself 46%

[Famous Mortimer]

Washington party is fairly conservative. There is no reason to think Cruz won't come in second.

[sportydude]

GOP:

TRUMP: 70%
Rafael: 16%
Kasich: 12%
Benny: 2%

On the Democrat side I'll go out on a limb and say:

Hillary: 51%
Bernie: 49%

[Ebowed]

On the Democrat side I'll go out on a limb and say:

Hillary: 51%
Bernie: 49%

There is no reason to expect a Clinton victory here.

[Holmes]

Democrats

Sanders - 55%
Clinton - 45%

Republicans

Trump - 68%
Cruz - 16%
Kasich - 13%

[Seattle]

Sanders: 55%
Clinton: 45%

Trump: 64%
Cruz: 17%
Kasich: 16%
Carson: 3%

[Crumpets]

I just can't imagine Trump doing all that well. He'll still win, but there will be a lot of protest votes. My guess:

Sanders - 57
Clinton - 43

Trump - 61
Cruz - 20
Kasich - 16
Carson - 2

[sportydude]

On the Democrat side I'll go out on a limb and say:

Hillary: 51%
Bernie: 49%

There is no reason to expect a Clinton victory here.

Really? Clinton performed in all closed primaries distinctly better than in 2008. Even in Oregon!
Furthermore, a "fake primary" doesn't attract many Bernie Bros., as you could see in Nebraska, where she won the closed fake primary distinctly.
I wouldn't bet any money, but I wouldn't be surprised either (after Nebraska) if Clinton really wins the Washington fake primary.

[Xing]

On the Democrat side I'll go out on a limb and say:

Hillary: 51%
Bernie: 49%

There is no reason to expect a Clinton victory here.

Really? Clinton performed in all closed primaries distinctly better than in 2008. Even in Oregon!
Furthermore, a "fake primary" doesn't attract many Bernie Bros., as you could see in Nebraska, where she won the closed fake primary distinctly.
I wouldn't bet any money, but I wouldn't be surprised either (after Nebraska) if Clinton really wins the Washington fake primary.

She did worse in the Washington caucus than she did in 2008, so I don't think it follows that she'll definitely do better in the beauty contest. Plus, it's not really "closed." You have to declare a party, but that's just a matter of checking a box. My sister-in-law is a Republican, and she voted for Bernie. There was about a 20-point shift in NE. I don't think a 47-point shift in Washington is that plausible. Anyway...

Trump - 62
Cruz - 19
Kasich - 16

Sanders - 53
Clinton - 45

[RosettaStoned]

  Um.....didn't the Dems already hold their Washington state primary?

[Ronnie]

  Um.....didn't the Dems already hold their Washington state primary?

They did already have a caucus, which was the binding contest.  The coming election on Tuesday is a beauty contest.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

 Um.....didn't the Dems already hold their Washington state primary?

That was a caucus. A meaningless primary is also held for the heck of it.

Anyways:

TRUMP 66%
Cruz 17%
Kasich 15%
Carson 2%

Sanders 56%
Clinton 44%

[Alcon]

A few notes:

Washington isn't a real closed primary.  We have no partisan registration.  You just sign an affidavit for the party you prefer.

There is a write-in option.

I'm not saying Kasich is a shoo-in for second, but keep in mind he almost beat Cruz in Oregon -- a state with a truly closed primary (helps Cruz), and fewer affluent suburbanites than WA.  Eastern Washington's higher population vs. Eastern Oregon will probably help Cruz, but a Kasich second would not shock me.

[IceSpear]

The real question: Will Bernie do better or worse than in Oregon? WA is not fully closed and is also more favorable turf than OR, but on the flip side nobody cares about it which will disproportionately impact young people, his best demographic.

[dax00]

Trump 76%
Cruz 12%
Kasich 10%
Result: Trump 41, Uncommitted 3

(I don't care about political beauty contests.)

[Classic Conservative]

Cruz swept 40 out of 41 delegates yesterday at the State Convention
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/washington-state-gop-convention-backs-cruz-over-trump/

[NOVA Green]

The real question: Will Bernie do better or worse than in Oregon? WA is not fully closed and is also more favorable turf than OR, but on the flip side nobody cares about it which will disproportionately impact young people, his best demographic.

Bernie- 54.7
Hillary- 45.3

Trump- 64
Kasich-19
Cruz- 17


I expect Bernie to perform worse in Oregon than Washington in the beauty contest.

1.) Metro Seattle is less favorable than Portland, which has a much larger blue-collar and working-class component, and significantly lower household incomes. I would not be surprised to see Hillary win Snohomish and possibly Pierce County as well.
2.) Much of rural and small-town Western and Eastern Washington should track closer to Oregon Primary results, although some doubts about Bernie margins in Clark and Spokane counties.
3.) Looking at Oregon primary votes there was a significant percentage of ballots in heavily Bernie counties, particularly with a large number of young voters, where there were no votes recorded for down-ballot candidates. I expect there to be some Bernie voters that don't bother doing the beauty contest figuring that he already won the lion's share of statewide delegates.
4.) It is true that Washington now having "vote by mail" for the primary and also a looser party affiliation method means that this might counterbalance the effect of potential Hillary upsets in several of the larger non-Seattle metro counties, but I don't see King county voting for Bernie at higher margins than Multnomah and quite frankly expect to see numbers 2-3% lower.

So yeah, agree WA not being fully closed helps some, but disagree that the demographics are more favorable.

[Ebowed]

There is a write-in option.

Really?  There wasn't on my ballot.

[ElectionsGuy]

Sanders: 55%
Clinton: 45%

Trump: 67%
Others: 33%

Really the most inconsequential election day we'll have.

[Erc]

Real question is: do either Cruz or Kasich win any delegates?  This would require cracking 20% in at least one CD.

[Ronnie]

Real question is: do either Cruz or Kasich win any delegates?  This would require cracking 20% in at least one CD.

Yeah, I imagine Kasich will nab a couple in and around Seattle.  Cruz might pick one off in WA-05, but it'll be right on the edge, if northeastern Oregon is an appropriate point of reference.