2004 Map Scenario

[Colin]

What would cause this map to happen in 2004?



Just FYI these were the results from the ChannelOne Mock Election which polled teenagers from every state. More information can be found here.

[Ben Meyers]

Winning Maine, not Vermont is weird for a Democrat

Bush drops Cheney, picks the Governor from Vermont, Douglas something?

Osama bin Laden is found the week before the election.  That would do that.

Or, maybe Kerry shouted random profanities during the debates. . .

[Colin]

Just FYI the reason that California and Vermont flipped was because of very large percentage, over 8%, for third party candidates. Third party candidates as a whole, from what I can see, polled around 3-4% nationwide. 

[Erc]

Winning Maine, not Vermont is weird for a Democrat

1968...

[Gabu]

Winning Maine, not Vermont is weird for a Democrat

1968...

Today isn't 1968.  In 2008, I think that for the Democrat to win Maine without winning Vermont would be a real feat.

[MAS117]

In an ABC teenager mock poll, I believe Kerry won by a large amount.

[Hatman 🍁]

I find this hard to beleive. In Canada, we have mock elections with high school students, and usually the right wing parties do extremely poor. Or it may just be anti-incumbents. For example, the one I participated in (2003 Ontario election) The incumbent Conservative party would have won 0- yes 0 districts, and the greens even won a district. The Conservatives lost the real result too, but they still won like 30 districts.

[Gabu]

I find this hard to beleive. In Canada, we have mock elections with high school students, and usually the right wing parties do extremely poor. Or it may just be anti-incumbents. For example, the one I participated in (2003 Ontario election) The incumbent Conservative party would have won 0- yes 0 districts, and the greens even won a district. The Conservatives lost the real result too, but they still won like 30 districts.

It was likely not a very good poll.  Exit polls from CNN showed that, had the election been up to 18-24 year olds, Kerry would have won the election by a wide margin.  Only one of them can be correct, and I personally feel that the CNN poll sounds more likely.

[Colin]

According to what I can figure out from the site ballots for this election were sent to schools around the country, with enough ballots for all the kids at that school to vote. Those ballots were then sent back to this Channel One and counted. Also it was done through the internet so that kids whose schools did not recieve these ballots would be able to register to vote on their website. It seems that this is not an exit poll and was conducted using ballots and internet voting between October 6th, 2004 and October 20th, 2004.