NBC/WSJ national poll: Clinton 46% Trump 43%

[Mr. Morden]

NBC/WSJ national poll, conducted May 15-19:

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/clintons-lead-over-trump-shrinks-3-points-new-nbc-news-n577726

[HAnnA MArin County]

*In before jfern's typical "God she's a horrible candidate! Look how much better Bernie is doing* spiel* 

[Mr. Morden]

whites:
Trump 52%
Clinton 36%

blacks:
Clinton 88%
Trump 9%

Hispanics:
Clinton 68%
Trump 20%

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[Ljube]

whites:
Trump 52%
Clinton 36%

blacks:
Clinton 88%
Trump 9%

Hispanics:
Clinton 68%
Trump 20%

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OK, we should expect Trump to reach 15% of blacks eventually, plus the diehard Never Trump Hispanics to come home and Trump to perform similar to Romney's levels, probably slightly higher.

As for whites, Trump will surely exceed Romney's numbers (surely more than 60% of whites for Trump).

When poll crosstabs start showing these realistic numbers, only then will we know that the polling is stable and can start considering the polls seriously.

[LLR]

whites:
Trump 52%
Clinton 36%

blacks:
Clinton 88%
Trump 9%

Hispanics:
Clinton 68%
Trump 20%

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OK, we should expect Trump to reach 15% of blacks eventually, plus the diehard Never Trump Hispanics to come home and Trump to perform similar to Romney's levels, probably slightly higher.

As for whites, Trump will surely exceed Romney's numbers (surely more than 60% of whites for Trump).

When poll crosstabs start showing these realistic numbers, only then will we know that the polling is stable and can start considering the polls seriously.

Lol, no. What actual evidence do you have?

[Ljube]

whites:
Trump 52%
Clinton 36%

blacks:
Clinton 88%
Trump 9%

Hispanics:
Clinton 68%
Trump 20%

You must be logged in to read this quote.

OK, we should expect Trump to reach 15% of blacks eventually, plus the diehard Never Trump Hispanics to come home and Trump to perform similar to Romney's levels, probably slightly higher.

As for whites, Trump will surely exceed Romney's numbers (surely more than 60% of whites for Trump).

When poll crosstabs start showing these realistic numbers, only then will we know that the polling is stable and can start considering the polls seriously.

Lol, no. What actual evidence do you have?

What would you consider evidence?

[LLR]

whites:
Trump 52%
Clinton 36%

blacks:
Clinton 88%
Trump 9%

Hispanics:
Clinton 68%
Trump 20%

You must be logged in to read this quote.

OK, we should expect Trump to reach 15% of blacks eventually, plus the diehard Never Trump Hispanics to come home and Trump to perform similar to Romney's levels, probably slightly higher.

As for whites, Trump will surely exceed Romney's numbers (surely more than 60% of whites for Trump).

When poll crosstabs start showing these realistic numbers, only then will we know that the polling is stable and can start considering the polls seriously.

Lol, no. What actual evidence do you have?

What would you consider evidence?

Um... facts? I just want to know why you think this, because right now it's less believable than Area 51.

[StatesPoll]

if WSJ poll number is T 43 H 46. TRUMP beat Hillary so big.
WSJ Poll almost always underestimated TRUMP.

GOP Primary 2016(National Poll numbers)

NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   4/10 - 4/14   310 LV  TRUMP 40  CRUZ 35    Trump +5
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   3/3 - 3/6   397 LV  TRUMP 30  CRUZ 27    Trump +3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   2/14 - 2/16   400 LV  TRUMP 26  CRUZ 28    Cruz +2

if WSJ was a accurate pollster(seems Nate Silver really overvalue WSJ Pollster)

GOP Primary 2016, should be dead heat until June,7

General Match up. TRUMP always had so poor numbers vs Hillary(compare to other pollsters)
NBC/WSJ 4/10 - 4/14 1,000 Registered Voters   Hillary   50 TRUMP 39
NBC/WSJ 3/3 - 3/6 1,200 Registered Voters      Hillary   51 TRUMP 38
NBC/WSJ 2/14 - 2/16 800 Registered Voters     Hillary   50 TRUMP 40
NBC/WSJ 1/9 - 1/13 800 Registered Voters       Hillary   51 TRUMP 41
NBC/WSJ 12/6 - 12/9/15 849 Registered Voters  Hillary 50 TRUMP 40
NBC/WSJ 10/25-10/29/15 847 Registered Voters Hillary 50 TRUMP 42
NBC/WSJ 9/20- 9/24/15  Hillary 49 TRUMP 39

if WSJ poll says Now(mid-May,2016) Hillary is ahead +3%. It means actually TRUMP is ahead +5% or more.

[Ljube]

My expectations for this election are based on fundamentals and past elections.

Van Jones says that 30% of blacks are receptive to Trump. I give him half of that number, because Trump's appeal is not limited to white working class but extends to working class of all colors.

Trump will lose some of the Establishment Pub Hispanics compared to Romney, but he will gain a lot of the working class Hispanics who were for Obama in 2012. That's why I keep Trump level with Romney or slightly better.

Finally, Trump will lose an insignificant number of the Never Trump white elite, but gain a large number of the Democratic working class white voters, which will give him more white votes than Romney got.


This is something I have been telling here for the past eight months or so. I'm not gonna let a poll or two sway my opinion of this election. I will only change my position if polls close to the election (say one month before) don't show what I am claiming here.

[LLR]

My expectations for this election are based on fundamentals and past elections.

Van Jones says that 30% of blacks are receptive to Trump. I give him half of that number, because Trump's appeal is not limited to white working class but extends to working class of all colors.

Trump will lose some of the Establishment Pub Hispanics compared to Romney, but he will gain a lot of the working class Hispanics who were for Obama in 2012. That's why I keep Trump level with Romney or slightly better.

Finally, Trump will lose an insignificant number of the Never Trump white elite, but gain a large number of the Democratic working class white voters, which will give him more white votes than Romney got.


This is something I have been telling here for the past eight months or so. I'm not gonna let a poll or two sway my opinion of this election. I will only change my position if polls close to the election (say one month before) don't show what I am claiming here.

Ok, so you do have evidence. Fair enough. I might disagree, but you're better than some.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

]
OK, we should expect Trump to reach 15% of blacks eventually,

Even if every single undecided black vote for Trump, he'd still get only 12%.

The whites claim is also baseless but this one is mathematically nonsense.

[Fusionmunster]

These numbers are not good. I don't kid myself, I know Trump has a 90% chance of getting at least 46% in the general, but I wasn't expecting him to poll that high this early. The only good news is that the Sanders numbers show that the anti-Trump sentiment is the majority feeling in the country. Once the primary ends hopefully Hillary will pick up most of those votes.

She probably will. When the full force of Obama and hopefully Sanders are behind her, her approval ratings hopefully tick back up into the 40s. I think Sanders polls so well right now because he's not Clinton, more so than because of his policies or personality.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

These numbers are not good. I don't kid myself, I know Trump has a 90% chance of getting at least 46% in the general, but I wasn't expecting him to poll that high this early. The only good news is that the Sanders numbers show that the anti-Trump sentiment is the majority feeling in the country. Once the primary ends hopefully Hillary will pick up most of those votes.

She probably will. When the full force of Obama and hopefully Sanders are behind her, her approval ratings hopefully tick back up into the 40s. I think Sanders polls so well right now because he's not Clinton, more so than because of his policies or personality.

I had initially read the poll as Trump 46%/Clinton 43%, probably because of that other poll with him at 46%. These numbers seem fine to me.

[Ronnie]

Anyone else catch this nugget?

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Y-yikes.

[The Mikado]

Just for Ljube to consider, the two best Republican performances among African Americans in the last six elections:

Dole: 12%
Bush 2004: 11%


15% is a bit of a stretch.

EDIT: To expand the list a bit:

HW in both 1988 and 1992: 10% (with Perot getting 8% of African Americans in 1992)

W. in 2000: 9% among African-Americans.

Romney in 2012: 6%.
McCain in 2008: 4%.

So yeah, Trump getting around 10% would be right in line with tradition and a break from the absurdly low performance Romney and McCain got against the first black President.

[MT Treasurer]

Anyone else catch this nugget?

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Y-yikes.

Further proves my theory that the electoral college actually helps the GOP.

[bumpercrop]

Anyone else catch this nugget?

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Y-yikes.

The margin of error on that subsample is large enough for that number to be meaningless.

[Holmes]

Clinton and Sanders supporters need to unite against Trump.

[Ljube]

Just for Ljube to consider, the two best Republican performances among African Americans in the last six elections:

Dole: 12%
Bush 2004: 11%


15% is a bit of a stretch.

EDIT: To expand the list a bit:

HW in both 1988 and 1992: 10% (with Perot getting 8% of African Americans in 1992)

W. in 2000: 9% among African-Americans.

Romney in 2012: 6%.
McCain in 2008: 4%.

So yeah, Trump getting around 10% would be right in line with tradition and a break from the absurdly low performance Romney and McCain got against the first black President.

Add HW to Perot, subtract the Establishment Pub blacks - that's Trump's number with blacks.

[Angrie]

Anyone else catch this nugget?

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Y-yikes.

And what is the sample size for those states? Very small. This is irrelevant.

[Likely Voter]

If you watched MTP they did a drill down looking at the people who had a negative view of both Clinton and Trump and the conclusion was a good chunk of them were Sanders people.  So that seems to be dragging her general numbers down. The question is, will they get on the unity train or stay home, or even worse, vote Trump. 

[john cage bubblegum]

Anyone else catch this nugget?

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Y-yikes.

Yeah, as a couple other posters pointed out, don't get worked up over "Battleground State" subsamples from national polls.  And I'd say the same thing if it showed a big Clinton lead. 

"Swing State" subsample polls were pretty useless last cycle as I recall.  We eventually get enough actual polls from the various battleground states that we can just pay attention to those.

[IceSpear]

If you watched MTP they did a drill down looking at the people who had a negative view of both Clinton and Trump and the conclusion was a good chunk of them were Sanders people.  So that seems to be dragging her general numbers down. The question is, will they get on the unity train or stay home, or even worse, vote Trump. 

There's really only room to grow among those people, unless Bernie tries to raise hell at the convention.