May 22, Finally TRUMP is ahead vs Hillary by RCP Average(first time)

[Free Bird]

I think a lot of people really underestimated just how bad a candidate Hillary Clinton really was.

Or a lot of us realise its only May.

That statement could be a double edged sword. Just look at her descent since her invincible days in 2014

[Ebsy]

If only there was some way for the parties to chose the strongest candidate for the general election. Maybe they should have a series of smaller elections among their members beforehand to see which candidate has the broadest appeal to serve as a foundation. Maybe we could call these pre-elections primaries!

[RaphaelDLG]

Let the unskewing begin.

I think it's about right. That scares me a lot, but I'm not going to dismiss it because I don't like the result.

Clinton is stumbling right now.

She needs to demonstrate her skill as a politician with Sanders and his supporters, and cut a deal that strengthens her ticket for the fall and brings them enthusiastically on board so the Dems can focus on TrumpMiller. And speaking of the immature psychopathic fascist dog-whistler, she needs to stop making her main line of attack that his politics are wrong, and swap over to educating the whole nation on just what a terrible human being he is, and what an awful president he'd make. Attacking him on gun rights and similar political staples is just going to help him.

But has she been stumbling though? Nothing has happened in the last month to say she has stumbled. She has said or done nothing controversial on the campaign trail. What we have had is 24/7 coverage of Trump and him securing the nomination. These polls are less about Clinton stumbling and more about Trump coalescing.

Clinton has barely stumbled at all this entire cycle.  Especially compared to Trump and Sanders who have made tons of mistakes.  Hillary's only real mistakes are "we're going to put lots of coal workers out of a job", "what, with a cloth?", and "I'll do it when all the Republicans do it" as her answer for the Goldman Sachs speeches.  She also probably could have handled the minimum wage thing better to make it look less like a lie.

Hillary hasn't made any huge gaffes but she is again running a feckless campaign with no message.

Regardless, she will get a boost after the primary.

[Badger]

We need to jackhammer away with males. She's doing so horribly and male voters are the least likely to sway back and forth. If we can get too many whites to vote against her, all she will have is the McGovern rainbow coalition.

LOL.
We have so many Republicans and trump followers here on Atlas, saying that they hate when the "other side" keeps claiming that the trump campaign is nothing but "white male" voters.
Yet, you have a Pub here, advocating this EXACT campaign strategy. And to just forget about everyone else, including people of color ('the McGovern rainbow coalition").

What's more, Reaganfan is hardly alone. Most Trump supporters here complain about attacking him for racism and sexism is false ad pandering to "identity politics" but simultaneously go on about how Trump can and will win by hammering on the concerns of white males.

[IceSpear]

Let the unskewing begin.

I think it's about right. That scares me a lot, but I'm not going to dismiss it because I don't like the result.

Clinton is stumbling right now.

She needs to demonstrate her skill as a politician with Sanders and his supporters, and cut a deal that strengthens her ticket for the fall and brings them enthusiastically on board so the Dems can focus on TrumpMiller. And speaking of the immature psychopathic fascist dog-whistler, she needs to stop making her main line of attack that his politics are wrong, and swap over to educating the whole nation on just what a terrible human being he is, and what an awful president he'd make. Attacking him on gun rights and similar political staples is just going to help him.

But has she been stumbling though? Nothing has happened in the last month to say she has stumbled. She has said or done nothing controversial on the campaign trail. What we have had is 24/7 coverage of Trump and him securing the nomination. These polls are less about Clinton stumbling and more about Trump coalescing.

Clinton has barely stumbled at all this entire cycle.  Especially compared to Trump and Sanders who have made tons of mistakes.  Hillary's only real mistakes are "we're going to put lots of coal workers out of a job", "what, with a cloth?", and "I'll do it when all the Republicans do it" as her answer for the Goldman Sachs speeches.  She also probably could have handled the minimum wage thing better to make it look less like a lie.

"With a cloth" was actually an amazing moment. I loved the media's tears about it (they're never going to like her or treat her fairly anyway, so who cares.)

[IceSpear]

I think a lot of people really underestimated just how bad a candidate stupid Hillary Clinton the country really was is.

Fixed.

[Wells]

Interesting. I think that maybe this may be more than just a post-nomination bounce. I'm starting to get worried.

[Higgs]

I think a lot of people really underestimated just how bad a candidate stupid Hillary Clinton the country really was is.

Fixed.

"My candidate is only losing because everyone else is stupid"

[IceSpear]

I think a lot of people really underestimated just how bad a candidate stupid Hillary Clinton the country really was is.

Fixed.

"My candidate is only losing because everyone else is stupid"

For one thing, she's not losing. As of now the race is deadlocked and polls in May are not very meaningful. Secondly, I think the country is stupid for many reasons, the biggest of which is that 46% of people voted for Sarah Palin to be an old man's heartbeat away from the presidency at the same time the incumbent Republican administration had a 25% approval rating, got us into a toxic unpopular quagmire in the Middle East, and destroyed the economy. To expect a country that did THAT to reject Trump resoundingly is silly, and blaming Hillary completely misses the mark. Americans are just dumb and root for their "team" as if politics was a sport, regardless of who the candidates actually are. Witness how Trump went from a fascist racist sexist con artist liberal mentally unstable thin skinned nutjob who should be nowhere near the nuclear trigger in the eyes of many Republicans/right wingers into the best thing since sliced bread as soon as he got the official designation of presumptive Republican nominee. Whether there is a (D) or an (R) after your name rules all.

Don't worry though, I'm not just picking on the Republicans here. The Democrats are the exact same way. To the extent that people even know about the specific candidates (which often, isn't much) it is frequently dismissed in favor of the party labels.

[RightBehind]

America is sewing its own destruction.

[Bismarck]

The CNN interview of Trump from the eightees shows him saying more or less the same things he is now. While he clearly doesn't care about social issues I don't think he's a liberal in disguise. And can we please stop with the "people who don't agree with me are uneducated Hicks" crap? Like Trump has lots of flaws but people can have differing opinions without being dumb. Are you liberals too insecure to admit that?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Let the unskewing begin.

I think it's about right. That scares me a lot, but I'm not going to dismiss it because I don't like the result.

Clinton is stumbling right now.

She needs to demonstrate her skill as a politician with Sanders and his supporters, and cut a deal that strengthens her ticket for the fall and brings them enthusiastically on board so the Dems can focus on TrumpMiller. And speaking of the immature psychopathic fascist dog-whistler, she needs to stop making her main line of attack that his politics are wrong, and swap over to educating the whole nation on just what a terrible human being he is, and what an awful president he'd make. Attacking him on gun rights and similar political staples is just going to help him.

But has she been stumbling though? Nothing has happened in the last month to say she has stumbled. She has said or done nothing controversial on the campaign trail. What we have had is 24/7 coverage of Trump and him securing the nomination. These polls are less about Clinton stumbling and more about Trump coalescing.

She's not stumbling.  She's unlikeable and unpopular.  The Sanders folks don't like her, and they are probably saying that they are not going to vote for her in polls; that may change over time, as Trump becomes more of a reality for them.  But it says something that lots of folks who dislike Trump will hold their noses and vote for him because they hate her.

[ProudModerate2]

Interesting. I think that maybe this may be more than just a post-nomination bounce. I'm starting to get worried.

This is EXACTLY a post-nomination bounce.
And to add to that, Hillary has not "closed" her nomination yet, and her competitor is stubbornly still fighting (which he has every right to).
As soon as Hillary is named the presumptive nominee for the Dems, the polls will quickly re-shift with Clinton having a small-to-moderate lead (once again).

[7,052,770]

The CNN interview of Trump from the eightees shows him saying more or less the same things he is now. While he clearly doesn't care about social issues I don't think he's a liberal in disguise. And can we please stop with the "people who don't agree with me are uneducated Hicks" crap? Like Trump has lots of flaws but people can have differing opinions without being dumb. Are you liberals too insecure to admit that?

Let's not act like only Hillary supporters are dismissive to people with other opinions. Trump and Bernie supporters in aggregate are both far worse in that regard.

[AmericanNation]

We need to jackhammer away with males. She's doing so horribly and male voters are the least likely to sway back and forth. If we can get too many whites to vote against her, all she will have is the McGovern rainbow coalition.

LOL.
We have so many Republicans and trump followers here on Atlas, saying that they hate when the "other side" keeps claiming that the trump campaign is nothing but "white male" voters.
Yet, you have a Pub here, advocating this EXACT campaign strategy. And to just forget about everyone else, including people of color ('the McGovern rainbow coalition").

I'm not proud of the divisions of our country, but this is a campaign, dammit. If I were in charge of Trump's campaign, I'd carpet-bomb the airwaves with Hillary barking, Hillary's coal comment, Hillary's liberal positions. The most unflattering images. Lee Atwater style. WEAK. WEAK. WEAK. In politics, it's about repetition. Trump strong, Hillary weak. Hillary hurts, Trump wins. Over and over and over.

It may not work with all voters, but this certainly has the feel of a change election. Hillary isn't change, Trump is, and that should terrify Hillary supporters.

I will be among the first to admit that I am indeed terrified at the prospect of a vile and idiotic psychopath who regularly dog-whistles the Horst-Wessel-Lied being elected President of the United States. (I have a great deal of empathy for people who don't want to vote for Hillary Clinton, but anyone actively supporting her near-certain Republican opponent is spitting on everything good and decent in Western Civilization.)

h
 
Interesting that Obama and Hillary have each in their own ways spent their entire lives trying to destroy Western Civilization.  They are both post-modern that way whereas Trump is more of a traditionally modern guy. 

[Wells]

We need to jackhammer away with males. She's doing so horribly and male voters are the least likely to sway back and forth. If we can get too many whites to vote against her, all she will have is the McGovern rainbow coalition.

LOL.
We have so many Republicans and trump followers here on Atlas, saying that they hate when the "other side" keeps claiming that the trump campaign is nothing but "white male" voters.
Yet, you have a Pub here, advocating this EXACT campaign strategy. And to just forget about everyone else, including people of color ('the McGovern rainbow coalition").

I'm not proud of the divisions of our country, but this is a campaign, dammit. If I were in charge of Trump's campaign, I'd carpet-bomb the airwaves with Hillary barking, Hillary's coal comment, Hillary's liberal positions. The most unflattering images. Lee Atwater style. WEAK. WEAK. WEAK. In politics, it's about repetition. Trump strong, Hillary weak. Hillary hurts, Trump wins. Over and over and over.

It may not work with all voters, but this certainly has the feel of a change election. Hillary isn't change, Trump is, and that should terrify Hillary supporters.

I will be among the first to admit that I am indeed terrified at the prospect of a vile and idiotic psychopath who regularly dog-whistles the Horst-Wessel-Lied being elected President of the United States. (I have a great deal of empathy for people who don't want to vote for Hillary Clinton, but anyone actively supporting her near-certain Republican opponent is spitting on everything good and decent in Western Civilization.)

h
 
Interesting that Obama and Hillary have each in their own ways spent their entire lives trying to destroy Western Civilization.  They are both post-modern that way whereas Trump is more of a traditionally modern guy. 

Destroy Western Civilization? There is no way you can actually believe that. Obama and Clinton are actually trying to help people. Obama passed the stimulus, health care reform, and reduced the deficit. Clinton has fought for women's rights and healthcare for children and families for many years. That is the opposite of destroying Western Civilization.

If you want someone who will destroy Western civilization, you institute extreme authoritarian laws and increase the national debt by ten trillion dollars, like Donald Trump will do if he is elected.

[AmericanNation]

We need to jackhammer away with males. She's doing so horribly and male voters are the least likely to sway back and forth. If we can get too many whites to vote against her, all she will have is the McGovern rainbow coalition.

LOL.
We have so many Republicans and trump followers here on Atlas, saying that they hate when the "other side" keeps claiming that the trump campaign is nothing but "white male" voters.
Yet, you have a Pub here, advocating this EXACT campaign strategy. And to just forget about everyone else, including people of color ('the McGovern rainbow coalition").

I'm not proud of the divisions of our country, but this is a campaign, dammit. If I were in charge of Trump's campaign, I'd carpet-bomb the airwaves with Hillary barking, Hillary's coal comment, Hillary's liberal positions. The most unflattering images. Lee Atwater style. WEAK. WEAK. WEAK. In politics, it's about repetition. Trump strong, Hillary weak. Hillary hurts, Trump wins. Over and over and over.

It may not work with all voters, but this certainly has the feel of a change election. Hillary isn't change, Trump is, and that should terrify Hillary supporters.

I will be among the first to admit that I am indeed terrified at the prospect of a vile and idiotic psychopath who regularly dog-whistles the Horst-Wessel-Lied being elected President of the United States. (I have a great deal of empathy for people who don't want to vote for Hillary Clinton, but anyone actively supporting her near-certain Republican opponent is spitting on everything good and decent in Western Civilization.)

h
 
Interesting that Obama and Hillary have each in their own ways spent their entire lives trying to destroy Western Civilization.  They are both post-modern that way whereas Trump is more of a traditionally modern guy. 

Destroy Western Civilization? There is no way you can actually believe that. Obama and Clinton are actually trying to help people. Obama passed the stimulus, health care reform, and reduced the deficit. Clinton has fought for women's rights and healthcare for children and families for many years. That is the opposite of destroying Western Civilization.

If you want someone who will destroy Western civilization, you institute extreme authoritarian laws and increase the national debt by ten trillion dollars, like Donald Trump will do if he is elected.

If you read history at university, than their is a chance that you could grasp what western civ. IS, but judging by your comments that is not the case. 

Western Ethics and Philosophy is based on an Aristotle concept of a tangible reality.  Hillary and Obama reject nearly all tangible reality (because it is very often inconvenient for them).  Therefor, On that simple fact they can not futher western civ.

Your first point "trying to help people" is a huge red flag.  intentions are virtually meaningless.  A A-hole like Trump has actually helped more people than a no-drama, cool-guy Obama, but you care about "intentions" not tangible realities.   

[Young Conservative]

The denial is delicious

So true. I always knew Trump was electable. All this propagation that he wasn't was silly. This race was bound to grow competitive

[RFayette]

I think a lot of people really underestimated just how bad a candidate Hillary Clinton really was.

Remember the days in 2014/early 2015 when people thought Hillary would win by 10-15 and was an almost impossible candidate to go against?

[Meclazine for Israel]

I think the poll is suspect.

Every time Trump is steam-rolling towards the lead and Hillary is falling off a cliff, the lines meet, then Hillary hits the lead again.

It's manipulated data not representative or useful as a predictive tool of the actual outcome.

[RedPrometheus]

Anyway she is in the lead again so debate over this at this stage is naturally inconsequential.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The CNN interview of Trump from the eightees shows him saying more or less the same things he is now. While he clearly doesn't care about social issues I don't think he's a liberal in disguise. And can we please stop with the "people who don't agree with me are uneducated Hicks" crap? Like Trump has lots of flaws but people can have differing opinions without being dumb. Are you liberals too insecure to admit that?

Differing opinions? Sure. I can absolutely understand why an intelligent person would sincerely support Brian Sandoval, Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, Jeb Bush or even Ted Cruz for the highest office in the land.

Trump is a willfully ignorant psychopathic con-man with an ego the size of one of his construction projects. Anyone deliberately voting for him is stupid, evil, or both.

[Hammy]

Given the electoral college decides the election, and 700 or so people in a country of 150 million voters is going to obviously produce different results depending on where the bulk of the callers are, it's really pointless to look at the national polls until the few weeks before the election and just use state polls at this point.

[emailking]

Given the electoral college decides the election, and 700 or so people in a country of 150 million voters is going to obviously produce different results depending on where the bulk of the callers are,

It shouldn't to within the margin of error though if it's done correctly.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Given the electoral college decides the election, and 700 or so people in a country of 150 million voters is going to obviously produce different results depending on where the bulk of the callers are,

It shouldn't to within the margin of error though if it's done correctly.

Which polls rarely are anymore.